This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
In baseball, 20 games doesn't mean as much as it does in a season of hockey, but it does tell us something. By this point, we're getting some interesting data that we can use for DFS, and that I can use for my recommendations. The DFS slate Sunday is comprised of 10 games with the first pitch at 1:30 p.m. EDT. Consider these players for your lineups.
Pitching
Max Fried, ATL vs. HOU ($8,800): This is me betting on elite pitching, and also the fact that as a lefty Fried may be able to keep Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker in check. Fried's first two starts of 2023 have gone well, but what do you expect from someone who's posted a 2.64 ERA since 2020 while suppressing home runs at an elite level? It's also encouraging that last season he recorded a 2.42 ERA at home over 107.2 innings.
Logan Allen, CLE vs. MIA ($5,500): A doubleheader Saturday and some injuries have opened the door for Allen to make his MLB debut Sunday. In three starts at Triple-A, the 24-year-old had an 1.26 ERA. Is he ready for the show? Being at home against the Marlins isn't exactly a trial by fire as they're down in the bottom-three in runs scored, which is where they finished in 2022.
Bailey Ober, MIN vs. WAS ($): Ober wasn't listed among pitching options when I wrote this, but that will change since Ober was announced as Minnesota's starter Sunday to replace Sonny Gray. Ober compiled four strong starts in Triple-A, and last year produced a 3.21 ERA across 11 starts with the Twins. The Nationals sit bottom-five in offense, and I fully expect them to be there when the season is over.
Top Targets
For whatever reason, Marcus Semien has shown zero acumen for hitting in Texas' ballpark since joining the team, so I'm going with another righty in Adolis Garcia ($3,600) against the lefty Kyle Muller as he's slugged .491 at home since 2021. And last season, he hit 27 homers and stole 25 bases. Muller's first two starts as an Athletic weren't bad, but he's gone four innings and allowed six runs in each of his last two appearances. Those are the kind of performances that make you think: "Oh yeah, this is someone who had a career 5.14 ERA heading into 2023."
The return of Andrew McCutchen ($3,300) to Pittsburgh hasn't merely been a nostalgic farewell tour, at least so far as the veteran has gone .277 with four homers and three steals. Hunter Greene has struck out even more batters this season, and so far the home runs are way down. On the other hand, he still lists a 4.24 ERA, in part because righties have hit .324 against.
Bargain Bats
It's been a slow start for Byron Buxton ($3,000), though he did look good Saturday while hitting his third homer of the season. When healthy, he boasts as much power as anybody having slugged .558 the past four years. And he belted 28 home runs last season in only 92 games. Patrick Corbin is primed to have an ERA over 6.00 for the second straight season, and righties are hitting him even harder than usual at a .338 clip.
With a righty starting for the Pirates on Sunday, TJ Friedl ($2,900) is a safe bet to draw into the lineup. He's actually managed well against southpaws during his career, and this year he's done great overall having slashed .306/.367/.472. Whether starting or relieving, Vince Velasquez has reliably been tuned up in his career with a 4.94 ERA while allowing 1.51 home runs per nine innings.
Stacks to Consider
Blue Jays at Yankees (Clarke Schmidt): Vladimir Guerrero ($3,900), Daulton Varsho ($2,900), Whit Merrifield ($2,800)
Last year, Schmidt got a chance to really pitch in the majors for the first time - largely in relief. The results were not great with a 3.59 FIP across 57.2 innings. This year, the Yankees have stuck Schmidt in the rotation, and it's not working out with an 8.79 ERA through four outings and he's given up 2.51 home runs per nine innings. I wish Toronto deployed more lefties as Schmidt has allowed southpaws to hit .333 against since 2021, but I at least have one in my stack.
Guerrero is not quite back to his 2021 form when he posted an 1.002 OPS with 48 homers, but he's slashed .346/.432/.519. While right-handed, he's registered a .922 OPS against righties the last couple seasons, better than his .865 versus southpaws. Varsho is the lefty here, and last year notched an .801 OPS against righties. He also stole 16 bases along with hitting 27 homers, and already has four of the former in 2023. Speaking of steals, I'm expecting more of those from Merrifield. He only has two, but racked up 40 only two years ago. Merrifield has also gone .309, so he's getting his chances to get on base and to do some running if he so chooses.
Brewers vs. Red Sox (Brayan Bello): Rowdy Tellez ($3,600), Willy Adames ($3,300), Christian Yelich ($3,100)
In Bello's first MLB start of 2023, he only lasted 2.2 innings and allowed five runs to the Angels. During his career - which has only comprised of 60.0 innings - lefties have hit .317 against and righties have gone .336. So Bello is eminently hittable, and that bodes well for this Milwaukee trio.
Tellez brings the power and he's slugged .576 with seven homers. He hit 31 of his 35 home runs last year against righties and slugged .498 against them. Adames has sent at least 25 deep in each of his last two seasons, which is still impressive power from a shortstop. He's also a righty who prefers to face a righty since he's managed an .813 OPS in those matchups since 2021. Sadly, it's clear Yelich's power is never coming back, but he did hit 14 homers with 19 steals in 2022 and has three of the former and five of the latter this season. It's also easier to steal against a righty, and he's registered a .369 OBP in those matchups.
