This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Our usual compact Saturday main slate awaits again here, with games going off between 4:05 and 4:10 p.m. EDT. Run totals weren't available as I sit to compose this.
We have three pitchers priced in five-figures, and only two more priced in the 9k tier, and that pricing suggests runs will be available from multiple offenses. We also have Oakland, Colorado on the road, and Kansas City to target against with our pitchers, which suredly will be popular. Where can we zig where everyone else zags?
Pitching
James Paxton, BOS vs. OAK ($10,600): Truth be told, I find flaws in all of the top arms Saturday. Mitch Keller has the most difficult matchup, Logan Webb has spotty history against Colorado, Braxton Garrett doesn't work deep and the Marlins hit lefties at a fair rate, knocking Ranger Suarez down. The same can be said for Paxton, as I don't trust him to give us the innings needed to blow this slate up. But he counters that with strikeout upside, getting at least seven in five of his last six starts. And the matchup with Oakland is just so obvious. They have a .296 wOBA, 92 wRC+ and reasonable 23.5 percent strikeout rate off lefties. At worst, we should have a safe floor.
Gavin Williams, CLE vs. KC ($8,500): Williams has only one solid appearance in this three starts since debuting, and it conveniently came against these Royals. He allowed just one hit there across seven shutout innings, striking out six in rout to 43 FDP points. We can't bank on a repeat performance given his other results, but the target is simply the Royals putrid offense. The bring a 24.7 percent K rate off righties into the game, with a league-low 76 wRC+ and .285 wOBA. It's the right matchup for a 4x return at this price.
Brady Singer, KC at CLE ($6,600): If you're looking to take a GPP swing, Singer merits some consideration. He's coming off of two quality starts, earning 40 and 31 FDP in the process, one of which came against these Guardians. His strikeouts aren't elite, so he'll need to limit damage and work a solid chunk of innings, but Cleveland's .301 wOBA and 90 wRC+ suggest that's doable. I will caution that the Guardians lineup has had success off Singer prior to their last matchup, collectively hitting .323 off of him, while fanning just 14.3 percent of the time. But we know the risk given Singer's price point. And if he can turn in a third straight nice outing, you're going to be sitting very pretty with a loaded offensive build.
Top Targets
We may as well just stay in Cleveland and talk about Jose Ramirez ($3,900). His recent game logs could turn some off, but he has a team-best .397 wOBA and 157 wRC+ off of righties to date, and is a nice 8-for-18 (.444) with two homers, eight RBI and a 1.399 OPS off of Singer.
Jorge Soler ($3,600) is a near automatic play when facing a lefty, having an obsene .507 wOBA, 226 wRC+ and .469 ISO against them in 77 plate appearances. His lone hit off of Suarez in five at bats left the yard, and he's priced appropriately enough where we can chase strictly his power.
It's going to be awfully tempting to stack Brewer bats against Luke Weaver, who has a 6.72 ERA and 5.44 FIP, and has allowed at least four runs in four of his last six starts. But I don't trust the Milwaukee lineup enough to go all in. As such, Christian Yelich ($3,700) gives us an anchor and shares of this matchup. Weaver is allowing a .404 wOBA to lefties on the road, Yelich is 2-for-6 off of him with two homers, and has 12 hits in his last seven games, homering twice and driving in eight.
Bargain Bats
While everyone, rightfully so, should consider Corey Seager as a lineup anchor, teammate Travis Jankowski ($2,500) has faired well all year off righties, boasting a .370 wOBA and 139 wRC+ in 127 plate appearances, fanning just 15.7 percent of the time. The power is non-existent, but he gives a cheap in to a potent offense in a favorable spot and has 10 hits in his last six starts.
Ryan McMahon ($3,100) has scuffled some of late with just three hits in his last 20 at bats. But he's one of only three Rockies with an above average wRC+ off righties, sitting at 116 to go with a .367 wOBA. And he's a solid 9-for-28 (.321) off Webb, including a homer.
Jarren Duran ($3,000) is getting going again after a slump in the middle part of June, which has put him in a favorable price point. Seemingly back to hitting leadoff, he has 10 hits over his last five games and a team-leading .377 wOBA off righties overall, adding a .202 ISO and 138 wRC+.
Stack to Consider
Reds vs. Colin Rea: Elly De La Cruz ($4,400), Jake Fraley ($3,400), Joey Votto ($3,300)
It won't be easy to fit these three into a lineup based on price points, and honestly, Rea doesn't have hugely targetable LvR splits, allowing a fair .381 wOBA and .892 OPS to lefties at home. But the Reds hit righties well, and with Fraley and Votto, we have some cost savings and a potential 4-5-6 heart of the order stack. De La Cruz needs minimal recommendation, but his .433 wOBA and 168 wRC+ off righties make him a near must play, and he's also got 11 hits in his last five games. Fraley is a perfect 3-for-3 off Rea with a homer, and is second on the team with a .396 wOBA and 142 wRC+ off righties, even if the current form isn't perfect. Votto sits with a .376 wOBA, 129 wRC+ and .364 ISO off righties, and has seven hits and three homers in his last four games.
