This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
We've got a limited seven-game slate to break down Saturday evening for FanDuel's main slate. All 14 pitchers are listed, with three coming in at a five-digit price point, and three more in the 9k tier, representing roughly 43 percent of our options. That doesn't mean we have to pay up, but it's going to be difficult not to.
We've got the expected elevated run total in Coors Field of 12.5 (pun I guess intended!), Atlanta-San Francisco checks in second at 9.5 runs and all other games are below that, so offense isn't supposed to be plentiful. Weather looks dry across the slate, and no significant wind boosts appear available.
Pitching
Tanner Bibee, CLE vs. DET ($9,800): This is arguably the clearest/easiest pick Saturday. Detroit comes in with a .294 wOBA, ranking 27th in the league, adding a meager 87 wRC+ and encouraging 24.3 percent K rate. Bibee is rolling right now, earning five quality starts in his last six, posting a 34 FanDuel Points (FDP) floor and 55 FDP ceiling in those five successes. Further, he hasn't allowed more than three earned runs since June 18th. He did give up four runs and seven hits in 3.2 innings against the Tigers in an earlier meeting but that was in early May. The only hesitancy is if it's too obvious.
Sonny Gray, MIN vs. PIT ($9,400): Speaking of on a roll, Gray has posted at least 46 FDP in each of his last three outings. He's not normally a strikeout guy, sitting at a fair 9.2 per nine to date, but he's whiffed 25 over his last 19.0 innings. Pittsburgh comes with a 23.9 percent K rate off righties, and a below average 90 wRC+. Gray has lasted at least five innings in every start since June 15, setting him up for a stable return at worst.
Miles Mikolas, STL vs. NYM ($7,100): To be frank, Mikolas is an arm I routinely target and bet against. But on this limited slate, what arms are we willing to trust below him? He's earned two quality starts in his last three, striking out a fair 16 over 20.1 innings and was oddly only roughed up by Oakland in that stretch. The Mets are just going through the motions, yet still have a slightly above average 104 wRC+ off righties to date. I don't personally trust either side, but at this low-ish end price, I'm willing to roll the dice and expect a 3x+ return. Perhaps Matt Manning merits consideration at the same price point. He's been on the road and arguably has a higher ceiling with the same volatility.
Top Targets
I'd personally prefer the price point to be lower, but there's no reason to fade Luis Robert ($4,300) here. His ISO has fallen to a still elite .278 off lefties, adding a .408 wOBA, 164 wRC+ and just a 12.5 percent soft contact rate. Rockies' starter Kyle Freeland is allowing a .375 wOBA to righties at home.
Julio Rodriguez ($4,100) is a fun case for GPPs Saturday. He's 0-for-9 off Framber Valdez, the slate's highest-priced arm. I assume that leaves him ignored amongst the big bats. But he also has 13 hits and two homers in his last 16 at bats. Valdez has been vulnerable of late, allowing nine runs in his last two starts, spanning 14.2 innings, and at least three runs in six of his last eight.
Bargain Bats
FanDuel clearly released pricing before Friday's performances, where I was all over Michael Harris ($2,900). He fell a homer shy of hitting for the cycle in rout to a 33.7 FDP performance. He's unlikely to repeat that, but he's going to hit second again and merely needs to get on base and score once to return ample value. Until he gains some $600 in price, he should be considered nightly.
Rockies bats don't have favorable splits and won't the rest of the season. That said, Ezequiel Tovar ($3,300) is figuring things out at the big league level. He's got 16 hits in his last 10 games and isn't priced up for the home field advantage Coors offers.
Baltimore's lineup is heavily stackable at their low price points, but I expect they'll be popular , so maybe don't go overboard, grab some shares and differentiate with a stack elsewhere. A's starter Ken Waldichuk is allowing a .399 wOBA to same-handed bats, though he's been marginally better at home. That same-handed split plays well for Ryan O'Hearn ($2,600), who has a .480 wOBA and 215 wRC+, but only 19 plate appearances off lefties, so he's no lock to play. Ryan Mountcastle ($3,000), Adley Rutschman ($2,900) and/or Aaron Hicks ($2,400) all have wOBAs of at least .380 and wRC+'s of at least 145, with Mountcastle being the best choice statistically.
Stack to Consider
Twins vs. Mitch Keller: Trevor Larnach ($3,000), Edouard Julien ($2,800), Joey Gallo ($2,400)
And here's how we differentiate from an Orioles stack! Make no mistake, this can absolutely implode, as the Twins have huge strike out rates, with Julien's 28.9 percent being the lowest of this trio. The target, however, is Keller. He's got a 5.00 road ERA (though only 3.79 FIP) but has really struggled in the second half with a 7.71 ERA and 5.77 FIP. Keller has allowed eight homers in just 32.2 second half innings and is more getable by lefties, so we'll go heavy on that side of the plate and hope for the best. Julien is the anchor, with a .406 wOBA, 165 wRC+ and decent .228 ISO off lefties. Larnach doesn't have great splits but is a middle order option with hits in five of his last seven, including a homer. We know using Gallo most likely results in three strikeouts, but a team-best .283 ISO off righties offers at least a puncher's chance at a big fly. It's by far not a safe stack, but if Keller's struggles continue, this can be the path to take down a GPP.
