This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A loaded 13-game slate awaits Friday evening's main slate at FanDuel. Four pitchers come in with five-figure price tags, with seven more sitting in the 9k tier, accounting for 46 percent of our options. As such, it comes as no surprise we've got low run totals across the slate, with three games sitting under eight runs, and only Giants-Rockies in Coors field presenting in double-digits.
Weather looks mainly dry across the country, and winds appear to be blowing in at many ballparks, with Oakland and Kansas City potentially being the only spots where elements could help.
Pitching
Justin Steele, CHC at ARI ($11,000): Truth be told, for as many high-priced arms as we have, the top tier doesn't present favorably, whether it be matchup or form based. Steele is the top arm here, making him tough to afford. Steele's form looks worth paying for however. He's turned in five straight quality starts, allowing five runs across 33.0 innings while striking out 39. Arizona fans only 19.9 percent off lefties, but come with just a 91 wRC+. And Steele has feasted on this lineup, allowing a .196 BA and .476 OPS across 54 plate appearances, though only a 20.4 percent K rate. Longevity with minimal damage is the path to a big return.
Griffin Canning, LAA vs DET ($9,000): The price and name don't exactly pair for me, but Canning looks to be in a decent spot for GPPers to take a shot. When he's good, he's really good, showing a 49 and 47 FDP ceiling across his last seven starts. He's also had two outings in the teens, so the risk is greater than normal for this price. But Detroit is targetable, with a 24.9 percent K rate off righties and just an 85 wRC+. He earned 33 FDP against this lineup in late July, which flirts with a 4x return if we can get a repeat. I have interest in his adversary here in Tarik Skubal too, so we could see a low scoring afair.
Zack Thompson, STL vs. PHI ($7,500): The paydown choices are pretty gross Friday, so I'd certainly recommend going up from Thompson, but if you're looking to take a shot, here goes. St. Louis is playing pretty well of late, so he could get some help from his offense. He's also gone for 30+ FDP in four of his last seven, only once going under 24 FDP, so the form is fine. Philadelphia is a potent lineup that fairs well off lefties, ranking 10th with a 109 wRC+. But they are also a free-swinging lineup, striking out 25.0 percent of the time. Thompson has fanned at least five in six of his last seven, so there's a path to a 3x return, if not better.
Top Targets
Houston bats against Zack Greinke seem like a logical spot to start offensive build, as he's allowed 14 runs across his last five starts, not once making it out of the fifth inning. Jose Altuve ($4,200) is 10-for-28 (.357) with a .971 OPS off Greinke, and atop the order, should be the safest for multiple at bats off him.
Corey Seager ($4,400) is in one of his seemingly patented hit barrages, collecting 11 knocks over his last five games, with two homers, six RBI and nine runs scored. He's just 2-for-7 off Guardians' starter Lucas Giolito, but one left the yard.
Lane Thomas ($3,700) likely comes with incredibly low usage, but is usually a nightly target against a lefty, carrying a .400 wOBA and 153 wRC+ into Friday. Brewers' starter Wade Miley has allowed 13 runs in his last five starts,
Bargain Bats
Padres' bats are going to be super easy to stack given their decreased prices and favorable splits against lefties, but it's fair to question how many hacks they'll get against Sean Newcomb, so perhaps don't go overboard. But Fernando Tatis ($3,600) has a .380 wOBA, 146 wRC+ and .234 ISO off lefties, while Manny Machado ($3,500) sits at .372/140/.189 and Ha-Seong Kim ($3,200) .395/156/.229.
Rockies' starter Chase Anderson has curious splits, being worse against righties at home and lefties on the road, but he's targetable nonetheless here after giving up six runs and across 3.1 innings last time out against these same Giants. There's not a huge Coors' field price bump on Mike Yastrzemski ($3,500) atop of this order, while J.D. Davis ($3,400) has driven in eight runs in his last six games.
I continue to be attracted nightly to both Pete Crow-Armstrong ($2,400) and Evan Carter ($2,700), newly promoted rookies whose price don't match their potential. Crow-Armstrong doesn't have a hit since his promotion, but Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt is allowing a .386 wOBA and .912 OPS to lefties. Cub bats are priced up elsewhere, so if he starts, it's a dart throw cheap option into their lineup. Carter has enjoyed far more success, with at least 9.2 FDP in four straight.
Stacks to Consdier
Rays vs. Jack Flaherty: Yandy Diaz ($3,800), Randy Arozarena ($3,500), Isaac Paredes ($3,000)
Flaherty has not been what the Orioles had hoped for when acquiring him, allowing 22 runs and 31 hits across his last five starts, an overall .409 wOBA and .982 OPS, so we can target both sides of the pate in the Rays lineup if we so choose. But it's been righties who are really doing him in, with an elevated .451 wOBA and 1.069 OPS. Diaz is a nice anchor atop the lineup, boasting a team-best .384 wOBA and 151 wRC. Paredes helps balance the budget, and another top of the order bat that comes with a .374 wOBA and 173 wRC+. Arozarena doesn't have favorable numbers off righties, but provides this trio with some power upside.
Reds vs. David Peterson: Spencer Steer ($3,200), TJ Friedl ($3,100), Nick Senzel ($2,500)
This looks like a terrific bargain stack. The prices minimize risk, free up budget elsewhere and offers potential for a sound return. Peterson has been better at home, but is allowing a .369 wOBA to lefties and .367 to righties. Senzel actually has the best splits off southpaws, sitting with a .415 wOBA, 150 wRC+ and .257 ISO, though most of that was from the early portion of the year. Still, he's priced terrifically if he's in the lineup. Steer sits at .376/132/.228, hits in the top third of the order and has 10 hits in his last 11 games, seven times earning at least nine FDP. Friedl comes in at .399/147/.174, and is in a nice groove, with double-digit fantasy outings in four straight and five of seven.
