This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Thirteen games are featured for Friday's main slate on FanDuel, getting underway at 7:05 p.m. ET. It's a rather peculiar slate, as just one pitcher is priced in the five figures with five more coming in at $9,000 or greater, representing just 23 percent of the pitching options, suggesting offense will come more easily than usual. Yet only one game (Guardians-Royals) has a double-digit run total and only one more (Red Sox-Padres) flirting with that at 9.5 runs.
Weather doesn't look to be a major player Friday evening. Rain is possible in Atlanta and Kansas City, but we know to be flexible during the summer as precipitation can always manifest. Winds appear more swirling and across the diamond in most parks rather than straight blowing out, not allowing for additional obvious games to target.
Pitching
Charlie Morton, ATL vs. PIT ($8,800): As the intro suggests, this is a pretty gross pitching slate overall. The top two options price-wise come from the slate's lowest expected scoring game at 7.5. Both are in elite form over their last two starts and have decent numbers against their opponents overall, so I wouldn't fault anyone for going there. But I just don't think it's necessary. Sure, Morton has been inconsistent, and we know we can't miss with pitching, but the matchup suggests he's in a spot to exceed value based on this price. Pittsburgh comes in with a .286 wOBA, 82 wRC+ and a 24.7 percent strikeout rate against righties. You'd expect Atlanta to provide him with some run support despite their offense's recent malaise, and they come in as heavy (-190) favorites. Morton has gone five innings or more in all but one start to date, putting him in a spot for a potential win and/or quality start given the Pirates' likely lack of offense. Pittsburgh is hitting .208 with a .691 OPS against Morton.
Colin Rea, MIL vs. CHC ($7,500): With so much ambiguity amongst arms, we target offenses that don't scare as much or more than an arm we trust, and that's Rea's profile here. The Cubs enter Friday with a below-average 96 wRC+ and a decent 24.5 percent strikeout rate against righties. Rea may not scream upside, as he fans just 5.9 per nine and his 3.62 ERA comes with a 4.67 xFIP, so he's not without concern. But he held the Cubs to one run across 5.1 innings earlier this year, fanning five, and the Brewers are reasonable favorites at (-136). If a victory manifests and Rea works 5+ innings, we've got 30-point fantasy potential, a number Rea's been around in three of his last five starts.
Landon Knack, LAD at SF ($7,400): Knack has minimal, at best, upside, so he's more of a cash game paydown than a GPP hope. But this game has a low 7.5 run total, and the Dodgers are favored against the higher-priced Logan Webb, so we're simply expecting Knack to match Webb for as long as possible. We'd expect the Giants, who play matchups heavily, to run as many left-handers at Knack as possible, and he's allowing just a .212 wOBA to opposite-handed hitters. Knack is allowing a .183 BABIP, his 2.10 ERA comes with a 4.77 xFIP and he's averaging just 6.3 strikeouts per nine, so there are plenty of warts. The Giants just don't profile as an explosive offense capable of exploiting those, giving Knack a chance at a 3x return.
Top Targets
No Guardian has more than four at-bats against Royals starter Alec Marsh, but they're hitting .391 (9-for-23) with a 1.134 OPS. Pair that with the slate's highest run total and we should consider building around Jose Ramirez ($4,100) and/or Steven Kwan ($3,900). Kwan is 3-for-4 off Marsh, while Ramirez is 1-for-4 with a homer. Take your preference between a table-setter in Kwan or a run producer in Ramirez.
Astros bats against lefties is never a bad play. Yordan Alvarez ($3,900) leads the team with a .392 wOBA and 158 wRC+ off southpaws, while Jose Altuve ($3,800) sits at .375/146, making both solid building blocks.
Oakland's JP Sears has allowed 15 runs and 23 hits across his last three starts, spanning 10.2 innings. As such, I'd assume stacking Diamondbacks will be popular. Ketel Marte ($3,500) has a .446 wOBA, 193 wRC+ and .380 ISO off lefties to date, making for an elite one-off play.
Bryan Reynolds ($3,300) isn't priced as a top option, but he's riding a 23-game hitting streak, has homered in four of his last seven, and is 2-for-3 with a homer off Morton.
Bargain Bats
Cardinals' starter Andre Pallante is allowing a .450 wOBA and 1.040 OPS to righties against .246/.532 to lefties. Spencer Steer ($3,300) has six hits and six RBI in his last four games. Jonathan India ($3,000) seems to have been elevated to the leadoff spot, is riding a nine-game hitting streak and has multiple hits in six straight. Noelvi Marte is not in FanDuel's player pool, but he's back from suspension and likely would be minimum-priced if added.
I have a personal affinity for the Tigers offense Friday, but I don't think I can get fully on board with stacking them because, well, it's the Tigers. It's a very small sample size, but Angels starter Zach Plesac is allowing a .561 wOBA and 1.346 OPS to lefties. Riley Greene ($3,500) isn't priced as a true bargain, but makes plenty of sense. But Colt Keith ($2,600) makes for a solid matchup play and has hit safely in six out of his last eight games.
Byron Buxton ($2,900) isn't priced to his current form, going 8-for-14 with three homers, seven RBI and seven runs scored in his last four. But he's also 0-for-7 off Mariners starter Logan Gilbert, so we have to ask if we trust that small sample or the hot streak more.
Arizona's Slade Cecconi has a 13.15 home ERA (7.16 FIP) while allowing 3.46 homers per nine. As such, I wouldn't be afraid to round out my lineup with an Athletics bat. If we're looking for feast or famine, Shea Langeliers ($2,800) fits that bill with a .250 ISO and 107 wRC+ coming with a 27.0 percent strikeout rate.
Stacks to Consider
Braves vs. Martin Perez (Pirates): Ozzie Albies ($3,600), Austin Riley ($3,500), Matt Olson ($3,300)
Perez is returning from an injured list stint and while a workload limitation isn't expected, we shouldn't expect him to work too deep either, potentially taking LvR splits off the table at a high level. But he's also carrying a 4.71 ERA and 4.69 FIP, so he's going to surrender some damage. Atlanta's offense is sporadic with its production, but they're also getting next to nothing from the bottom of the order, so we should know where the production is coming from, and their form makes this a reasonable value. Albies is in poor form, going 2-for-24 over his last six, and at this price, likely is overlooked. But he's 5-for-6 with two homers off Perez. Olson is in the same form, going 2-for-23 over his last six, but has a 140 wRC+ and just an 11.1 percent soft contact rate off lefties. Riley is hitting .299 with five homers in June, offering a third piece that simply has to produce for Atlanta to win.
Red Sox vs. Randy Vasquez (Padres): Jarren Duran ($4,000), Rafael Devers ($3,900), Wilyer Abreu ($3,300)
This stack is becoming almost cut and paste in this column, and it's only come with marginal success. But the matchup again screams go to the well. Vasquez is getting pummeled by left-handed bats to the tune of a .532 wOBA and 1.241 OPS. And that's almost all the Red Sox have. Duran has cooled over his last two but has been elite this month with 36 hits (.371 batting average) with 23 runs scored in 23 games. Devers gives us some thump and is in decent form. Abreu is not, however, with just three hits in 19 at-bats this month after returning from injury. He's more of a means to the end than a must-play, but gives us a likely 1-2-4 lineup stack. David Hamilton ($3,100) would have equal appeal if the Sox shake up their lineup.
