This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
FanDuel's Friday main slate features 12 games for us to sort through. Detroit is without a listed starter in San Francisco, giving us 23 pitchers to select from and against, eight of which slot in as pay-up options at $9,000 or greater, though only two sit in the five-figure range. Coors Field is present, giving us our slate-high 10.5 run line, while the aforementioned Giants-Tigers is the low point at 7.5 runs. Just three other games have run lines of 9.0 or 9.5, so offense will be at a premium and perhaps pitching won't be.
Rain appears to be a heavy concern in New York as the remnants of Hurricane Debby work north. Winds will be a factor there if the game is played. We also appear to have heavy outbound winds in Boston thanks to the storm as well. Colorado has some rain concerns. There's also the likelihood of wind assistance in Chicago, though we know that can change direction quickly.
Pitching
Robbie Ray, SF vs. DET ($9,500): If money were no object, Jack Flaherty is the clear play, but for $1,500 less, we can target Ray's strikeout upside to potentially provide similar production. Ray has been leaving balls up and allowing massive home run totals in his three starts, but that should be less of a factor given the matchup. Detroit comes with a weak .136 ISO off lefties along with a below-average 87 wRC+. Their strikeout rate isn't high at 21.3 percent, but that surely elevates here with Ray sitting at 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The risk is it doesn't, which takes the ceiling away from Ray as he's still making just his fourth start, and the innings/pitch count will be limited. But he's earned 40+ fantasy points in two of his first three starts, and that's again the expectation.
Martin Perez, SD at MIA ($8,100): Jose Berrios against Oakland figures to be popular in this mid-tier range, but, I, somewhat magically, targeted Perez recently and he didn't disappoint. He's earned consecutive quality starts, averaging 37 fantasy points, and gets the softest matchup possible against the Marlins, who come with a paltry .276 wOBA, 75 wRC+ and .110 ISO off lefties. He's an innings eater over a strikeout guy, but that works here as the Padres are scorching hot and should stake him to a lead and win potential.
Mitch Spence, OAK at TOR ($7,400): The paydown options on the bump Friday are beyond gross, so my overall advice is to not live in this space. And we're going to have interest in a Toronto bat here momentarily, likely further taking Spence out of consideration. But he's been serviceable of late, allowing five total runs in his last three starts, spanning 17 innings. His fantasy floor has been 25 points in that stretch, and he's earned 20+ fantasy points in nine of his last 14. That's stability I don't see in our other options below $8,000. Toronto sits with a league-average 100 wRC+ off righties.
Top Targets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,800) is hitting .507 with 10 homers during his current 20-game hitting streak, yet still isn't priced above $4,000. What more information is needed?
The Red Sox-Astros contest is a game we have to target with winds blowing out and a high 9.5 run total. The wind seems to be pointing towards the Moster Wall in left field, suggesting we'd want right-handed power bats, but those are scarce from both lineups. As such, I'm not going to overthink it and target Rafael Devers ($3,900) and/or Yordan Alvarez ($3,700). Devers hasn't been elite of late, but still brings a massive .453 wOBA, 193 wRC+ and .367 ISO off righties into Tuesday. Alvarez has homered in consecutive games and has hit safely in five out of six and 12 out of 16 games, making for a reasonable floor/ceiling play.
We can't fully fade Atlanta in Coors Field despite their offensive inconsistencies. Rockies starter Tanner Gordon has been torched by right-handed hitters (in a small sample size of 48 batters faced) to the tune of a .531 wOBA and a 1.264 OPS. Austin Riley ($3,800) has homered in back-to-back games and has eight hits in his last four games.
Bargain Bats
Jackson Chourio ($2,900) is arguably as hot as any hitter out there but still priced under $3,000. He's coming off a two-homer game Thursday and has multiple hits in six straight and seven out of his last eight games.
Edward Cabrera is a decent talent who has been better at home, so don't go overboard, but the Padres are too hot to completely ignore. Overall, Cabrera has been more vulnerable to lefties, which gives us ample secondary pieces to target. Luis Arraez ($2,600) stands out in his return to Miami, but Jake Cronenworth ($3,100) and Jackson Merrill ($3,000) also make sense. If the splits don't matter, Xander Bogaerts ($2,900) has also been very productive of late.
We think we'll have favorable winds in Chicago, and I believe Cubs bats will come lowly rostered with Garrett Crochet on the mound. But Crochet is having his workload monitored at this point and likely doesn't go five innings here. Dansby Swanson ($2,600) has hit in 13 of his last 15 games. While it's not elite, his .348 wOBA off lefties leads team regulars.
Though strictly a BvP play and no guarantee to be in the lineup, Adam Frazier ($2,400) is 13-for-34 (.382) with a 1.082 OPS off Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas.
Stacks to Consider
Reds vs. Aaron Civale (Brewers): Elly De La Cruz ($4,300), Jonathan India ($3,200), TJ Friedl ($3,100)
Civale has allowed 15 runs and 28 hits in his last five starts across 25.0 innings. This slate appears to have numerous games to target. It's going to be up to us to stack the right ones, take the top-end guys singularly, or grab secondary pieces in those games. Maybe you fade Alvarez and Devers in favor of De La Cruz and stack elsewhere, but I trust Civale to give up some damage to target the top of this order. De La Cruz has 11 hits in his last four, including an 0-for-4 outing, so we know his GPP ceiling is immense. He brings a .402 wOBA, 156 wRC+ and .277 ISO off righties into Friday. India and Freidl land here simply because of their likely lineup position, making for a traditional 1-2-4 stack. Jeimer Candelario ($3,100) has far better splits off righties and would be my preference over Friedl if the lineup cooperates. I also don't hate a punt/dart throw on Noelvi Marte ($2,700) out of the nine-hole to save funds.
Giants vs. TBD (Tigers): Tyler Fitzgerald ($3,600), Heliot Ramos ($3,500), Matt Chapman ($3,500)
Back to old faithful with not much of an original thought. The Tigers are currently without a listed pitcher on FanDuel but appear to be turning to lefty Brant Hurter, which immediately says all systems go for a Giants offense that smashes lefties. Fitzgerald is hot again after a brief dip with multiple hits in five of his last seven, including two homers. Ramos has homered in two of his last three and we know his success against lefties. Chapman is in a nice power surge also, homering in four of his last six while hitting safely in 10 out of 12. We have some light favorable winds here and the Giants are one of just six teams with an expected run total of five or greater.
