This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
FanDuel's main slate Friday gets going at 6:40 p.m. EDT and captures just seven games. Thankfully, the slate does not look like it will be reduced by weather, with no rain likely. We have slightly favorable winds in Atlanta and Cincinnati, with stronger gusts possible in Anaheim.
The slate is not short on high-end pitching, with five options at $9,800 or greater, including three in five-figures. I'm having a really hard time recommending any and think at least for the time being, we have to lower our expected scoring from pitchers until we see these aces make it six or more innings, or the price comes down some. I'm worried we're entering an era where the new expectation from a $10,000 pitcher is only a 3x return. Gross.
Mariners - Brewers is out lowest run total Friday, expectedly so with two for the expensive arms facing each other. Astros - Rangers is the high point.
Pitching
Aaron Nola, PHI at WAS ($10,100): Nola seems like he's aging some and isn't the ace we can trust at this price, but the matchup is favorable for a bounceback. Current Nationals are a combined 21-for-105 (.200) with just one total homer and a .506 OPS, striking out at a 27.5 percent rate. He threw 83 pitches in his unsuccessful opener, and if he can get to 90+ here it should come with far more success.
Brady Singer, KC vs. CWS ($9,200): Singer was dominant in his opener, faning 10 across seven innings while throwing 98 pitches. That's the workload we want and need for a high-priced arm. The matchup here seems far softer overall, as we're likely targeting against the White Sox all year. I expect another solid showing here, but will offer the caveat that while the workload for Singer wasn't some 120+ pitch tiring outing, we may want to pause with massive expectations and see how he bounces back/if there's any early fatigue. And somewhat surprisingly, the Sox have better splits than the Twins thus far, with a .292 wOBA and 20.5 percent K rate off righties compare to .271/25.0.
Kutter Crawford, BOS at LAA ($8,200): Crawford appers to be the lowest I'd be willing to go Friday on the bump. He fanned seven across six shutout innings in his debut and gets an Angels lineup that's striking out at a 26.5 percent rate with a .284 wOBA off righties to date. If the wind really is gusting out, there is some concern, as Crawford is a flyball pitcher, at 46.9 percent in 2022 and 49.1 percent in 2023. He kept it on the ground more to start the year, but we need to see far more for that to be a new trend.
Top Targets
Atlanta returns home after starting the season in cold weather, and gets to face a lefty tonight, so there's no bad option from their lineup to build around. Ozzie Albies ($4,000) we know is better from the right side, but Diamondbacks' starter Tommy Henry was slightly more vulnerable to lefties last season, which could make Matt Olson ($4,200) lesser rostered.
If we're trusting Rangers - Astros to actually provide the most runs on the slate, taking top bats makes sense. Kyle Tucker ($3,600) is priced too low for the upside he has, and he also had the team's best splits off lefties last season. I'd caution slightly that Rangers' starter Cody Bradford has solid numbers against same-handed bats. Chas McCormick ($2,900) smashed lefties last year and makes for a cheap pivot. On the other side, Hunter Brown has been more vulnerable to same-handed bats, putting me firmly on Marcus Semien ($3,500) at this low price. he's 6-for-11 (.545) off Brown with a 1.182 OPS and only one strikeout.
Bargain Bats
There's an amazing disparity amongst Brave bats. They've got four priced up, but there's some upside in the lower tier. Marcell Ozuna ($3,200) has already homered three times this season, Michael Harris ($3,300) is hitting higher in the order, and Adam Duvall ($2,600) figures to be in the lineup against a left-handed starter.
We seemingly always want to target bats against Patrick Corbin at this stage of his career. Trea Turner ($3,400) isn't priced too high. If you're a BvP guy, he's curiously 0-for-6 off Corbin. Alec Bohm ($3,000) is the play if that's your jam, going 8-for-22 (.364) with three homers and two doubles.
If we're trusting the wind reports of gust to right field in Anaheim, targeting some left-handed pull power makes sense. Rafael Devers ($3,600) is the obvious choice and not priced up, but Boston offers a plethora of choices. Triston Casas ($2,900), Masataka Yoshida ($2,700) and even Wilyer Abreu ($2,600) would have a chance if in the lineup. And staying in the same game, Luis Rengifo ($2,300) hit leadoff in the Angels last game and the team scored 10 runs. He's near bottom price, and offers eligibility at three positions if he reprises that role.
Stacks to Consider
Reds vs. Jose Quintana (Mets): Spencer Steer ($3,500), Jonathan India ($3,000), Christian Encarnacion-Strand ($3,000)
The Mets played 20 innings Thursday and the Reds didn't play. New York needed nine innings from their bullpen, and Quintana only went 4.2 in his first start, so I'm looking for some early success of Quinatana and then for the Reds to tee off on the Mets' relievers. Steer has stand alone value, with eight RBI already, and he had a team-best .390 wOBA, 141 wRC+ and .234 ISO off lefties last season. Indian and Encarnacion-Strand are admittedly hunch plays more than statistical probabilities. Neither faired well off lefties last season nor are they piping hot at the moment. But hitting atop the lineup gets them extra chances at success in a game where I think the Reds score freely.
With these smaller slates, there aren't a ton of three-man stacks I like to play. That's just a personal preference, and I usually prefer some two-man mini-stacks. But Atlanta is priced too favorably here to not stack. This column has name dropped a plethora of choices to consider. But an Olson-Ozuna-Duvall trio is not going to break your budget.
