This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Owing to a dearth of evening baseball, DraftKings has decided on a daytime slate for DFS purposes. There are seven games included, but the start time is 12:20 p.m. ET. You'll have to get your lineups in early. Here are your recommendations.
Pitching
Corbin Burnes, MIL at PHI ($8,500): Burnes came into this season as an elite pitcher by reputation and performance. This has been a hit-or-miss season, but in the month of July, the Cy Young winner has looked more like his old self. Over his last three starts Burnes has an 1.89 ERA and has struck out 12.3 batters per nine innings. The Phillies are middling in runs scored, and they have several all-or-nothing bats. If Thursday is more "nothing," Burnes could mow Philly down.
Michael Lorenzen, DET at KC ($5,500): Hey, Lorenzen was in the All-Star Game! Sure, every team needs to have a representative, but Lorenzen's 3.75 ERA is…acceptable for an MLB starter. Plus, he's thrown 11.2 innings of shutout ball over his last two starts. The Royals are 29th in runs scored, so maybe we will see all-star numbers from the Tiger again.
Top Targets
Since 2021, Matt Olson ($6,200) has an .891 OPS against righties, but this year his OPS in those matchups is up to 1.010, and 26 of his 30 homers have come against righties. Usually, Zac Gallen is good at keeping homers down, but he's also eight home runs across his last 50.2 innings pitched, averaging out to one per start in that time. He also has a 5.11 ERA on the road, which seems a little fluky, but is worth noting.
The White Sox scored one run Wednesday, and it was off the 28th homer hit by Luis Robert ($5,900) this season. Even before this year, the Cuban established himself as a guy who obliterates lefty pitchers. Over the last three seasons he's posted an 1.054 OPS against southpaws. Jose Quintana is making his debut with the Mets this season after a 60-day IL stint. If the lefty isn't up to full speed, Robert will be ready to pounce.
While walks aren't the most-exciting thing to DFS players, Juan Soto ($5,600) has posted a .419 thanks to elite patience and a keen batting eye. Also, smashing righties, the southpaw has an 1.006 OPS versus right-handed batters. Chris Bassitt has been much better at home, though perhaps owing to allowing an unsustainably-low number of home runs, but he's also let lefties hit .286 against him. Put it all together, and I went with Soto but eschewed a full stack.
Bargain Bats
With three hits Wednesday, Riley Greene ($4,600) got his average back up to .300 to go with six homers and six stolen bases. Once again, Zack Greinke has been much better at home than on the road, but this year his home ERA is 3.67. It's just paired with a 7.42 ERA in away games. Lefties have hit a whopping .331 against the veteran righty, which is why I wanted Greene.
Francisco Alvarez ($3,600) is a power-hitting catcher. He's slugged .534 with 19 home runs in 70 games. While he's a righty, Alvarez has a career .966 OPS versus righties. Michael Kopech is one of those hard-throwing righties who doesn't allow a lot of contact, but the contact he allows tends to do damage. He has a 5.90 FIP, largely because he's allowed 1.87 home runs per nine innings.
While it is undeniable the bloom has come off the rose a bit for Jarred Kelenic ($3,600), he's still hit .252 with 11 homers and 12 stolen bases, and has produced enough to stay at the MLB level this season. Pablo Lopez is coming off a start where he allowed seven runs to the Athletics, which is as foreboding as it gets. While his road ERA is 3.56 compared to a 4.98 ERA at home, he's allowed 1.5 home runs per nine innings in away starts, compared to a mere 0.6 in home games.
Stack to Consider
Reds vs. Giants (Alex Cobb): Elly De La Cruz ($6,300), Jake Fraley ($5,100), Joey Votto ($4,900)
Well, whether at home or on the road, Cobb does keep the ball in the park. When he's away from San Francisco, though, his numbers drop off considerably. He has a 4.15 ERA on the road in 2023 after having a 5.20 ERA on the road in his first season with the Giants. Cobb has let lefties hit .292 against him, so I have three guys who can hit lefty in this stack.
De La Cruz has, I'm sorry to report, cooled off after his torrid MLB debut. That being said, the switch hitter has an .862 OPS versus righties and an .823 OPS at home, so this is a scenario that plays to his strengths thus far. Fraley is more established in MLB, and what he's established as is a platoon guy who can smash righties. He has 13 homers and 16 stolen bases with an .910 OPS versus righties. Votto has slugged .573 with eight homers in 23 games this season. Last year he struggled, but he's on pace to have an OPS over 1.000 versus right-handed pitchers for the second time in two campaigns.
