This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Monday slates are usually challenging to dissect, but this one was easy. We don't typically have many pitchers to pick from, but limiting it to just three was difficult. We have three guys we adore, so let's go ahead and start there.
Pitching
Michael King, SD vs. MIN ($10,000)
King got off to a rough start, but he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the opening month. The righty has allowed two runs or fewer in 11 of his last 13 starts, registering a 2.30 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 rate in that span. That might look flukey, but King compiled a 1.88 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 rate in the final months of last season as well. Something changes with his strikeout stuff when he's at home, sporting an absurd 13.3 K/9 rate at Petco Park. That won't bode well for Minnesota, ranked 17th in strikeout rate over the last month.
Seth Lugo, KC vs. LAA ($9,500)
Lugo has been struggling a bit recently, but this Royals righty is still having a career year. The former Met has allowed 18 runs across his last four starts, but he still has a pristine 3.04 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. We're willing to bet that he recaptures that season-long form in a matchup with L.A. because they've been one of the worst offenses without Luis Rengifo and Mike Trout. The Angels rank 24th in wOBA, 25th in OPS and 26th in runs scored. That was on full display when Lugo scored a season-high 41 DraftKings points against them earlier in the year, striking out 12 batters across eight one-run innings. We also don't mind that Lugo is a -190 favorite.
Kyle Harrison, SF vs. CWS ($7,900)
This is a risky option, but the volatility of any starter is always limited when you see that big CWS next to their name. The White Sox are on track to have a historical season in all the wrong ways, ranked last in runs scored, on-base percentage (OBP), OPS, wOBA and xwOBA. That makes a solid pitcher like Harrison an excellent option, with the lefty posting a 4.14 ERA and 1.27 WHIP since his call-up. He also has a 3.86 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 rate across his last six starts while totaling a 2.31 ERA and 0.90 WHIP at home over the last two months. The oddsmakers love this play, too, with Harrison entering this matchup as a -260 favorite.
Gavin Stone ($7,500) is a sneaky option against a Seattle team that sits 27th in runs scored and dead-last in strikeout rate.
Top Targets
Bobby Witt Jr., KC (vs. Carson Fulmer) $6,600
No one is going to catch Aaron Judge for American League MVP, but Witt is giving him a run for his money. The superstar shortstop is up to 25 homers and 25 steals, providing a .430 batting average (AVG), .478 OBP, .794 SLG and 1.272 OPS across his last 42 outings. There's also something different about Witt when he's hitting at Kauffman Stadium, compiling a .456 OBP, .728 slugging rate (SLG) and 1.184 OPS there this season. He also has a 1.042 OPS against righties, and Fulmer is far from a scary one, totaling a 5.50 career ERA and 1.45 WHIP. We love using Vinnie Pasquantino ($4,900) with Witt, tallying a .330 AVG, .583 SLG and .944 OPS across his last 24 games.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR (vs. Julian Aguiar) $5,700
If you think Witt is hot right now, wait until you see these Guerrero numbers. The slugger has a hit in 26 of his last 28 outings, generating a .435 AVG, .500 OBP, .917 SLG and 1.417 OPS in that stretch. No player has had a better month all season, and we love that he gets to avoid Hunter Greene after landing on the injured list (IL). He has a matchup with Aguiar, who's expected to make his first career start after posting a 4.40 ERA and 1.26 WHIP at Triple-A. If you want to stack Toronto, George Springer ($4,400) and Spencer Horwitz ($3,800) are the best pairings with Guerrero.
Bargain Bats
Ryan Mountcastle, BAL (vs. David Peterson) $3,900
Mountcastle is not an everyday player right now but he's always in the heart of Baltimore's lineup when they face a lefty. That's one of the best lineup placements in baseball, and it's easy to see why they give him that promotion in these circumstances. The first baseman has a . 322 AVG, .381 OBP and .932 OPS against lefties since the start of last season. He's also been much better outside of Camden Yards like many of these O's bats, which is awesome since he faces a lefty with a 1.40 career WHIP. Adley Rutschman ($5,200) has also slaughtered southpaws throughout the season, sporting a .416 OBP and .986 OPS against them.
Michael Conforto, SF (vs. Jonathan Cannon) $3,900
Conforto is not the same guy we saw in New York nearly a decade ago but he's plenty capable anytime he faces a weak righty. In over 3,000 at-bats against righties, Conforto has collected a .361 OBP, .477 SLG and .838 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. He also comes into this matchup hot, amassing a .442 OBP, .619 SLG and 1.061 OPS across his last 13 outings. That's why he typically bats cleanup against righties, and we're not concerned about Cannon's 5.65 ERA and 1.55 WHIP between Double-A and Triple-A. A San Fran stack could be sneaky, with Tyler Fitzgerald ($5,200) and Heliot Ramos ($4,500) looking like the best options next to Conforto.
Stacks to Consider
New York Mets vs. Baltimore Orioles (Trevor Rogers): Francisco Lindor ($5,600), Pete Alonso ($5,000), J.D. Martinez ($4,500), Mark Vientos ($4,500)
It's hard to understand why Baltimore traded for Rogers, but here we are. We've been stacking against this southpaw all season, with Rogers registering a 4.89 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. That hasn't improved since joining the O's, posting a 7.53 ERA and 1.88 WHIP across his last three starts. All of that is horrifying against a harrowing Mets lineup, ranked in the top 10 in every offensive statistic over the last two months.
We have to kickstart our Mets stack with Lindor because he's been the best shortstops in the National League over the last three months. Lindor has 23 homers and 24 steals over his last 105 games, generating a .867 OPS in that span. He's also just shy of a .900 OPS against lefties since the start of last season. Alonso also has the platoon advantage against Rogers, posting a .919 OPS across his last nine games. Martinez is right there with these guys, generating a .376 OBP, .574 SLG and .950 OPS against southpaws throughout his career. In addition, Vientos has a .349 AVG, .674 SLG and 1.066 OPS against lefties.
Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland A's (Joe Boyle): Brandon Lowe ($4,700), Josh Lowe ($3,700), Junior Caminero ($3,100)
We always have to exploit the worst pitcher on the slate, and that happens to be Boyle. He's simply a fill-in arm for this rebuilding Oakland team, accruing a 7.38 ERA and 1.83 WHIP this season. Those averages are hard to fathom, but it's no surprise since he had a 5.63 ERA and 1.44 WHIP at Triple-A this year. Tampa is far from a terrifying lineup, but they have plenty of cheap pieces who should have success against a guy like this.
Lowe has always been a dangerous bat when the Rays face a righty, hitting second in their lineup when they do. The second baseman has a .351 OBP, .576 SLG and .926 OPS in 38 games since coming off the IL while accumulating a .346 OBP, .496 SLG and .842 OPS against righties throughout his career. The other Lowe is just as hot, recording a steal in six straight games while accumulating a .404 OBP and 1.042 OPS across his last 15 outings. Caminero is one of the top prospects for a reason, producing a .309 AVG, .372 OBP, .550 SLG and .923 OPS throughout his minor-league career.
