This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We're halfway through September! Time is flying by. Friday follows a light slate of Thursday action for MLB with a much more robust docket. There are 13 games taking place starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. Here are my DFS lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Tarik Skubal, DET at LAA ($9,000): Last year, Skubal had a 3.52 ERA, but a 2.95 FIP. Well this season, his ERA is 3.47, but his FIP is all the way down to 2.19. The lefty has struck out 10.83 batters per nine innings and doesn't allow home runs. While the Angels are in the top half in runs scored, that was bolstered by a different lineup, and one with a healthy Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani.
Seth Lugo, SD at OAK ($8,600): In his last 10 starts, Lugo has had two tough outings, but against Houston and the Dodgers. Otherwise, he's allowed two earned runs or fewer when taking the mound in that time. Oakland's offense is not near the quality of Houston or LA. After all, the Athletics are last in runs scored and team OPS.
Griffin Canning, LAA vs. DET ($8,200): Canning hasn't been great, but he is having the best season of his career. He has a 4.24 FIP with a career-high strikeout rate and a career-low walk rate. The Tigers have a better record than expected, but not due to offensive prowess. Detroit is 29th in runs scored and OPS.
Top Targets
The robust power of Yordan Alvarez ($6,100) has been on display again, as he has 27 homers in 99 games. There is no surprise, given that he has a career .588 slugging percentage. Zack Greinke has had a long, successful career, but this is the worst campaign he's ever had. He has a 5.04 FIP, has struck out 5.97 batters per nine innings, has allowed 1.78 home runs per nine innings, and also has allowed lefties to hit a whopping .330 against him.
With 31 homers and 95 RBI, Rafael Devers ($5,400) is primed for his third 30/100 season of his career. Getting to face righties will help, as he has a .921 OPS versus right-handed pitchers since 2021. Jose Berrios has been home prone recently, having allowed two homers in four of his last six starts. Additionally, lefties have hit .268 against him.
Bargain Bats
Already, Wilmer Flores ($4,900) has racked up a career-high 22 homers, bolstered by a .526 slugging percentage. His power has mostly been on display away from San Francisco, as he has a .987 OPS on the road. Flores isn't just on the road Friday, he's at Coors Field. Peter Lambert, Colorado's starter, has a career 5.59 ERA and has allowed 1.88 home runs per nine innings.
It's not terribly surprising that switch-hitting Drew Waters ($2,900) has more power against righties, but his home/road splits are quite stark. For Friday, though, that's a good thing, as his career OPS in Kansas City is .848. Cristian Javier has held righties to an .189 average…and that's the only positive thing to say about his season. The righty has a 5.51 ERA on the road and allowed southpaws to hit .284 against him.
Stacks to Consider
Rangers at Guardians (Lucas Giolito): Marcus Semien ($5,600), Mitch Garver ($4,300), Nathaniel Lowe ($4,100)
In Giolito's last start with the Angels, he allowed three home runs. In his two starts with the Guardians he's allowed…three home runs. Across the three teams he's pitched for, Giolito has a 5.03 ERA and has given up 1.98 homers per nine innings. Since righties have hit. 260 against Giolito since 2021, I leaned that way with this stack.
Semien has hit .278 with 24 homers and 14 stolen bases. While he's right-handed, he's slugged .494 against righties since 2021. Garver hasn't played a ton, but when he plays, he's got a lot of power. This year he has 17 homers and has slugged .533 in 73 games. The 32-year-old is also on fire, as he has an 1.145 OPS over the last 21 days. Now, Garver did foul a ball off his foot Thursday, so be advised the catcher (who mostly DHs) may sit. Lowe has a .277 average, .376 OBP, and has hit 37 doubles to go with 16 homers. He's been particularly good against righties this year, as he has an .870 OPS in those matchups.
Cubs at Diamondbacks (Brandon Pfaadt): Cody Bellinger ($6,400), Ian Happ ($4,900), Seiya Suzuki ($4,300)
The Diamondbacks are unlikely to make the playoffs, and the rotation is a big reason why. Pfaadt has been trotted out there 16 times to post a 6.25 ERA. In fact, he has a 7.30 ERA at home. Both lefties and righties have hit .286 against Pfaadt, so you have your options for this stack. This is what I landed on.
Bellinger has completely revamped himself, having hit .316 with 25 homers and 20 stolen bases. The one-time MVP has his first 20/20 campaign! The lefty isn't slowing down either, having posted an .832 OPS over the last three weeks. Happ has a .358 OBP with 17 homers and 14 swiped bags. He's a switch hitter, but has an .811 OPS against righties and an .805 OPS on the road as well. Suzuki has been on fire, as he has an 1.060 OPS across the last 21 days. He's been crushing it on the road as well, having notched an .892 OPS in away games.
Rays at Orioles (Jack Flaherty): Brandon Lowe ($4,400), Josh Lowe ($4,000), Luke Raley ($3,400)
The Orioles picked up Flaherty in hopes of holding off the Rays for the AL East title, but that hasn't worked out. In six starts with Baltimore, the former Cardinal has a 7.16 ERA. He has major issues with allowing walks but also with facing lefties. I have three southpaws in this stack because Flaherty has allowed a .306 average to left-handed hitters.
Brandon Lowe has sort of brought his power profile back, as he has 19 home runs in 102 games. Mostly, he's excelled against righties, against whom he has slugged .474. Though he doesn't walk at all, Josh Lowe has been arguably the top bats for the Rays this season. He's hit .282 with 18 homers and 29 stolen bases. The southpaw has an .854 OPS versus righties and an .889 OPS on the road. Raley has stolen 14 bags to go with 19 homers of his own. Yes, Raley has an .827 OPS versus righties but also an .836 OPS on the road.
