This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
While it's not surprising DraftKings excised the afternoon start from its slate of DFS contests, the two games starting at 6 p.m. EDT also didn't make the cut. That means first pitch at 7:05 p.m., but it also means you still have 12 games to pick your players from. Here are my recommendations.
Pitching
Aaron Nola, PHI vs. COL ($9,400): Nola has had some bad luck, hence his 5.91 ERA but 3.60 FIP. Considering that would be his highest FIP since 2019, I expect Nola's numbers to get even better as he racks up the starts. Seeing the Rockies in the bottom 10 in runs scored is extra notable, as they get to play their home games at the most hitter-friendly park in MLB.
Jon Gray, TEX vs. OAK ($9,100): Gray is reportedly good to go after leaving his last start due to being hit by a comebacker, and this is a nice matchup to step into. In his first season with the Rangers, Gray had a 3.35 ERA at home, a nice respite from his days at Coors Field. The Athletics are down in the bottom five in runs scored already, as expected, with a .225 batting average as a team.
Zach Plesac, CLE vs. MIA ($6,500): Plesac has put a couple good starts together after a bad opening outing. While he's a middling pitcher all in all, since 2021 he has a 3.83 ERA at home. Sure, that isn't a reason for enthusiasm, but it is enough against the Marlins. Only the Tigers have scored fewer runs this year, and Miami finished 28th last year.
Top Targets
It's been a bit of a slow start for Kyle Schwarber ($6,000), but even so he has four home runs after hitting 46 last year to lead the National League. I'm not about to question the power of a guy who has slugged .576 against right-handed pitchers since 2021. Noah Davis will be making his second MLB start. His first went well, as he blanked the Mariners for five innings, though he allowed three hits and three walks. However, Davis had a 4.26 ERA in three Triple-A starts this year, and had a 5.54 ERA in 26 Double-A starts in 2022. I'm not buying in just yet.
I wanted a righty from the Rangers for Friday, and Adolis Garcia ($5,300) has proven better in their home ballpark than Marcus Semien, so he's the guy I'm going with. Garcia has an .801 OPS at home since joining the Rangers, and last year he had 27 home runs and 25 stolen bases. Lefty JP Sears has really struggled since becoming a starter for the Athletics, especially when it comes to allowing homers. He's already given up five home runs in 2023, even though he's pitched two games in Oakland.
Bargain Bats
So far, Rowdy Tellez ($4,000) is doing what he did last season, but more so. The lefty is swinging from his heels while not walking. He has five home runs and has slugged .508, and his numbers are being helped by the fact the Brewers are keeping him away from lefties whenever possible. Nick Pivetta is a righty, and he also has a career 5.01 ERA as he begins his seventh season. That's a telling number over that amount of time.
Recently called up by the Twins as Minnesota's top (healthy) hitting prospect, Edouard Julien ($2,800) already has two home runs. He had a .969 OPS in Triple-A, admittedly in only nine games, and last year at Double-A he had a .934 OPS with 17 homers and 19 stolen bases. Trevor Williams is back as a full-time starter now that he's a National, but through three outings he has a 4.63 FIP. What's notable is that he's struck out a mere 5.28 batters per nine innings, so a lot of contact is likely.
Stacks to Consider
Angels vs. Royals (Taylor Clarke): Mike Trout ($6,200), Hunter Renfroe ($5,400), Taylor Ward ($5,000)
The Royals are opening with Clarke, who is expected to cede to Ryan Yarbrough. Since we are going from a righty opener to a lefty bulk-inning pitcher, I have decided to go with three righties in this stack. Clarke has a career 4.85 ERA and Yarbrough has a career 4.40 ERA, so it's looking good for the Angels.
Of course, you can throw Trout out there against just about anybody and not sweat it. He has a career 1.002 OPS and hit 40 home runs in 119 games last year. Trout also has an 1.123 OPS at home since 2021. Renfroe is with another new team, but he's still got the same power he's shown in many stops. The righty has a .500 slugging percentage and four home runs. Ward has dipped a bit from his breakthrough 2022 when he slashed .281/.360/.473 with 23 home runs. Last year he had a .901 OPS at home as well.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays (Yusei Kikuchi): Aaron Judge ($6,300), Gleyber Torres ($4,700), DJ LeMahieu ($4,300)
Kikuchi surprisingly only allowed one run against the Rays in his last start, but it was on a home run. That tracks, given that the Japanese pitcher has allowed 1.76 home runs per nine innings. He also has a career 5.04 FIP. The Yankees are a bit banged up, and Kikuchi is a southpaw so options were limited, but I still found a stack I am happy with.
Judge needs little explanation, given that he has six homers (and two stolen bases) this season after having 62 homers (and 16 stolen bases) in 2022. Which he's had limited luck against lefties so far in 2023, it's only been a handful of at-bats, and he still has a .976 OPS against lefties since 2021. Torres seems to be taking advantage of the new base-running paradigm, as he has five stolen bases already (and has been caught three times, which shows he is running). He also has an .825 OPS versus southpaws since 2021, and he had a .797 OPS at home in 2022 as well. LeMahieu is more of a guy who gets on base and scores runs, but he has definitely preferred Yankee Stadium the last couple of years. He had an .825 OPS at home last season.
Orioles vs. Tigers (Michael Lorenzen): Cedric Mullins ($5,600), Adley Rutschman ($5,500), Austin Hays ($4,100)
Due to a litany of pitching injuries, the Tigers have little option but to try Lorenzen in the rotation. His first start was a disaster, as he allowed six runs over four innings. Well, last year in his return to being a starting pitcher he had a 4.30 FIP in 18 starts with the Angels, so there is no real reason for surprise. The Orioles get the chance to take advantage of Detroit's lack of options.
Mullins is leaning into being a base-running virtuoso, as he has nine steals in nine attempts thus far. He's stolen at least 30 bases in his previous two campaigns, and his .841 OPS since 2021 against righties is also encouraging. A catcher with a .309/.447/.515 slash line with four home runs? Yeah, I'll take that. That goes double against a righty, as while Rutschman struggled versus lefties as a rookie, he has a .902 OPS in his career against right-handed pitchers. Hays is off to a hot start, having slashed .324/.361/.574 with three homers. He's particularly raked at home, which makes sense as he has an .809 OPS at Camden Yards since 2021.
