This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
As you would expect, we have a busy afternoon of baseball Sunday with 11 games on the DFS slate and first pitches coming at 1:35 p.m. EDT. Onto the DFS recommendations. Good luck!
Pitching
Jack Flaherty, DET vs. OAK ($8,900): Flaherty's first start with the Tigers went well as he pitched six innings and only allowed one run. He also issued zero walks, which is promising as that was an area where he struggled the last couple of years. That appearance may have been against the White Sox, who are expected to be one of the two or three worst offenses in MLB this season. The Athletics are also projected to be in that range after finishing last in runs scored and team OPS in 2023.
Andrew Abbott, CIN vs. NYM ($8,600): The Reds listed a lot of noteworthy young players last season, so Abbott's rookie campaign may have flown under the radar where he managed a 3.81 ERA in 21 games and a 3.51 at home. The lefty pitched well enough on the road against Philly to record a 3.38 after one start, so going up against the Mets in Cincy should prove easier. While things should pick up, the Mets rank bottom-five in runs scored after ending up 20th last year.
Cristopher Sanchez, PHI at WAS ($7,600): Sanchez was moved into the rotation last season and posted a 3.44 ERA. That was with a 2.08 on the road. The southpaw also shut down lefties as they only hit .133 against. A couple key Nationals are left-handed, and they also finished 29th in home runs last year.
Top Targets
You may recall Matt Olson ($5,900) led the majors in homers (54) and RBI (139) last season. While it was a remarkable campaign for the former Athletic, he's shown a couple of notable traits since moving to Atlanta in his .948 OPS versus righties and a .923 at home. While Ryne Nelson was much better on the road in his first full MLB season, he still had a 3.46 road ERA while lefties went .294 against. Maybe I don't stack Atlanta bats given Nelson's home/road splits, yet I'm happy to have Olson.
As a slap hitter - though a deft one - Luis Arraez ($4,700) offers more real-life value at the plate than DFS value. However, he's a career .323 hitter and has slugged .458 against righties since 2022 while showing doubles power in those matchups. Kyle Gibson, a righty, has struck out 7.20 batters per nine innings over his career with a career 4.53 ERA. Lefties have also batted .275 against the last couple years, so we have someone who makes a lot of contact facing a pitcher who allows a lot of contact. That gives Arraez a bit more DFS upside. The fact he plays second base also helps given the relative offensive level at the position.
Bargain Bats
When a lefty is on the mound, Alec Bohm ($4,100) puts up number on par with the best hitters in baseball having slashed .328/.366/.561 since 2022. MacKenzie Gore is a lefty, and his primary issue last season was that he allowed 1.78 homers per nine innings.
While brother Josh was raking last year, Bo Naylor ($4,100) also boasted some power. The catcher only hit .237, but slugged .470 and hit 11 home runs across 67 games. Bo will likely be behind the plate and in the lineup whenever righties are on the mound as he registered an .852 OPS against them during 2023. Bailey Ober's first start was horrendous as he gave eight runs - including three homers - over 1.1 innings against the Royals. Ober will pitch better based on his career 3.86 ERA, but that outing is pushing me to get somebody rostered against him.
Stacks to Consider
Orioles at Pirates (Marco Gonzales): Adley Rutschman ($4,800), Ryan Mountcastle ($4,300), Austin Hays ($3,300)
I'm not buying Gonzales' Pittsburgh debut, and not just because it came against Washington or his 3.58 FIP compared to a 1.80 ERA after that start. This is a pitcher who hasn't produced an FIP under 4.27 in any of his last three seasons while also one of the worst starters when it comes to striking out the opposition averaging 6.68 per nine in his career. Since Gonzales is a lefty, I did go with three Orioles who are right-handed.
Rutschman is a switch-hitter, and last season flipped the splits of his rookie season by improving against lefties with an .895 OPS. He's also been better at home over his career, though the catcher was once baseball's top prospect and is now in his third season. By this point, I think Rutschman can handle a pitcher like Gonzales on the road. Mountcastle is hitting reasonably well to start the season, even though he's not yet had much opportunity to mash against lefties. Last year, he popped thanks to an 1.052 OPS versus southpaws. Hays is off to a slow start, but obviously it's early. He's gone deep 16 times in each of his last two seasons with over 35 doubles. Hays also displayed slightly more power against southpaws last season by slugging .456.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays (Bowden Francis): Gleyber Torres ($4,600), Anthony Volpe ($4,300), Anthony Rizzo ($4,200)
Pitching in the rotation is different than coming out of the pen. And when someone doesn't make his first MLB start until he's 27, that's not usually a good sign. Francis impressed out of the bullpen in 2023, but allowed seven runs on 10 hits in his first start that included three homers across 5.1 innings. That may have been against the Astros, yet I'm going to stack against Francis until he proves to be a viable MLB starter. And we may not get many opportunities to do so.
Torres' 28 doubles, 25 homers, and 13 stolen bases were all par for the course, yet he boosted his OBP to .347. He also hit lefties better with an .828 home OPS and has slugged .483 at Yankee Stadium since 2022. Volpe was a better fantasy performer than real-life player last year as he racked up counting stats (21 home runs, 24 steals) while posting a sub-.300 OBP. The shortstop displayed much more power against lefties, though 20 of his swipes came against righties. At this point, the southpaw Rizzo basically needs to be at home to provide any fantasy viability as he's produced a .828 home OPS since 2022 compared to a .684 on the road. Sunday's matchup will be in the Bronx, so that should work out.
