This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
The first full month of the MLB season is nearing its conclusion, but there's one more Sunday. There are nine games included for the DFS docket, with the first pitch at 1:35 p.m. EDT. Let's end April with a showering of DFS winnings. Here are my lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Tarik Skubal, DET vs. KC ($10,000): I believe in Bobby Witt. I'm starting to feel like I should have picked him as AL MVP. However, I don't think the Royals are a top-10 offense or even an above-average one, so regression is to be expected. And while Witt looks like a future MVP, Skubal appears to be a future Cy Young winner. He's posted a 2.23 FIP through five starts and registered a 1.99 FIP in 15 appearances last year.
Albert Suarez, BAL vs. OAK ($8,000): Suarez has made two appearances as an Oriole and has yet to allow a run. Has that involved some luck? Sure, it often does, yet he still has a 2.31 FIP. While Oakland will likely avoid the ignominy of finishing last in most (maybe all) offensive categories because the White Sox exist, it's a strong bet to rank 29th across the board.
Ryan Weathers, MIA vs. WAS ($6,300): There are reasons to worry about the long-term production of Weathers. His 3.16 ERA is paired with a 4.59 FIP across five starts and he frequently walks batters. That being said, these are two awful offenses down in the bottom-five in runs scored. Weathers is also a lefty, so hitters like CJ Abrams and Jesse Winker are in trouble if they already aren't on the bench to start the game.
Top Targets
While replicating last season's numbers were always unlikely, Matt Olson ($5,800) produced multiple seasons with over 30 home runs while playing in Oakland and he's slugged .519 over his career. The lefty will be fine, especially as he gets more and more chances to tee off on questionable righty starters. To that end, Ben Lively has a 2.38 ERA in two starts for the Guardians paired with a career 4.91 mark and didn't pitch in the majors from 2019 until 2023 for a reason.
With five homers to start 2024, it may be a good time to recall Marcus Semien ($5,300) recorded seasons of 33 and 45. Let's also remember his .895 home OPS last year. Andrew Abbott is a lefty who enters with a 2.60 ERA, but also a 4.39 FIP that's in line with the 4.19 he posted as a rookie.
Bargain Bats
Usually stacking against Patrick Corbin is a tradition unlike any other, though the Marlins' lineup is very lackluster. At least Bryan De La Cruz ($3,800) is a right-handed bat with a .792 home OPS since 2022. Corbin has been his usual self this season, which is to say a 6.51 ERA through five outings. He's also allowed righties to go .312 against the last three seasons.
It's not uncommon - in fact, it seems to be the norm - for Mets' hitters to perform better on the road, yet Brett Baty ($3,000) has bucked that trend in his brief MLB career with a .725 OPS at home. He's also a lefty, and Lance Lynn really struggles with southpaws as they've batted .272 against him the last couple campaigns.
Stacks to Consider
Dodgers at Blue Jays (Kevin Gausman): Freddie Freeman ($5,600), Teoscar Hernandez ($4,900), Max Muncy ($4,500)
In the past, stacking against Gausman - even selecting from the Dodgers' lineup - would have been a questionable decision. Through five starts this season, he's recorded a 5.57 ERA with a 4.25 FIP. Gausman's home runs are up over recent years, but not out of line with previous stats. His fastball has also been slower and strikeouts are way down. So I feel good stacking a trio like this one.
Freeman's counting stats are lacking so far, though he's batting .305 and is coming off back-to-back seasons with over 100 RBI, 100 runs, 20 homers, and 10 steals. Freeman should be fine, especially given that he's managed a .961 OPS against righties and an 1.005 on the road the last couple seasons. Hernandez is on the record about not enjoying playing home games in Seattle last season, and he's already picked up six homers and three stolen bases with his new club. While Gausman's a righty, right-handers have gone .260 against. Muncy has gotten on base at a .361 clip with five home runs and six doubles. His 2022 was an off year, though he's slugged over .500 against righties since the start of last season.
Reds at Rangers (Dane Dunning): Spencer Steer ($5,500), Jake Fraley ($4,300), Christian Encarnacion-Strand ($4,100)
The next game this season where Dunning doesn't allow a home run will be his first. Every time he's taken the mound in 2024, the ball has left the park and he's conceded at least three runs in four of five outings. The righty has never panned out for the Rangers as his career 4.21 FIP indicates, so I'm combining Reds with power potential.
Last year, Steer produced 23 homers and 15 stolen bases. This season, he's at three and six of each. While Steer has been going for it on the basepaths, he slugged .487 on the road in 2023 compared to .440 at home. Fraley racked up 21 steals compared to 15 home runs last year. But when a righty is on the mound, the southpaw turns into a slugger with a .479 slugging percentage against them since 2022. As a rookie, Encarnacion-Strand slugged .477 and hit 13 homers, and that was in only 63 games. While a righty, he slugged .352 against lefties and .518 against right-handed pitchers like Dunning last season.
