This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We've now made it a week into the MLB season proper. There have been some surprises already (as a Tigers fan, some of them rather pleasant), but what will prove sustainable, and what will prove a fluke? Track record still matters most for me. Friday, there are seven games starting at 6:40 p.m. ET or later. These are my DFS recommendations.
Pitching
Freddy Peralta, MIL vs. SEA ($9,300): Peralta took a step back last season, though a 3.84 FIP across 30 starts is not bad by any means. His strikeouts were actually up and his walks were down, but a guy who has allowed 1.10 homers per nine innings in his career gave up 1.41 in 2023. Peralta pitched a gem in the opener, though the one hit he allowed was a homer, and now he faces a Mariners team off to a slow start. It's early, I know, but Seattle has scored 17 runs across seven games.
Kutter Crawford, BOS at LAA ($8,400): One of the reasons for the Mariners' slow start to the season? Crawford pitched six innings against them, only allowed three hits and gave up a single unearned run. He had remarkable splits in 2023, posting a woeful 6.00 ERA at home but a 2.49 ERA on the road. This is an away start, one that comes against an Angels team likely to drop offensively without Shohei Ohtani.
Top Target
I have zero worries about Austin Riley ($5,700) and his somewhat slow start. For three seasons in a row he's had more than 30 doubles, 30 homers and a slugging percentage over .500. He also has an 1.017 OPS versus lefties since 2022. Tommy Henry is a lefty, and away from Arizona's pitcher-friendly park, he's had issues. Last year he had a 3.38 ERA at home but a 5.05 ERA on the road.
Bargain Bat
There are reasons why Hunter Renfroe ($3,400) is on his seventh team in six seasons. He doesn't walk at all, and there is effectively no chance of him batting .300. Renfroe is flawed…but he brings enough that seven teams have given him a shot. The outfielder has slugged .475 in his career and hit at least 20 home runs in his six full MLB seasons. Erick Fedde has a career 5.39 ERA and has allowed 1.57 homers per nine innings. Things got so bad, he had to try his hand in Korea last season. Fedde is back, but he allowed two homers in 4.2 innings to the Tigers in his return to the States.
Stacks to Consider
Phillies at Nationals (Patrick Corbin): Trea Turner ($6,100), J.T. Realmuto ($4,400), Alec Bohm ($4,000)
I kept an eye on the rain delay in the Nationals-Pirates game Thursday, hoping the game wouldn't be postponed, so I could say those most glorious of words for stacking purposes: Patrick Corbin is starting for the Nationals. He has a 5.77 ERA over the last four seasons. Corbin allowed four runs, including two home runs, in 4.1 innings. Also, since 2022, righties have hit .311 against the southpaw pitcher. When Corbin takes the mound, find three righties. That's what I did.
Turner famously started slowly last season, but turned it around and ended up with 26 homers and 30 stolen bases. He hit .266 last year, but Turner is a career .296 hitter. Last year he had a .310 BABIP, but his career BABIP is .339, so improvement is expected. Realmuto's numbers dipped last year, but almost entirely against righties and at home. He had an .838 OPS against lefties and a .951 OPS on the road. Bohm is notable for being the rare righty who has splits akin to many southpaws. He can't hit his fellow righties, but since 2022 he has a .930 OPS against left-handers.
Red Sox at Angels (Griffin Canning): Jarren Duran ($4,900), Tyler O'Neill ($4,500), Trevor Story ($4,400)
After not pitching in 2022, Canning had a 4.32 ERA last season. He opened this year getting roughed up by the Orioles. Doesn't seem like he's primed for a rebound! Notably, Canning did well against lefties in 2023, but righties hit .271 against him. Thus, I decided to go with two righties in this stack, just in case.
Duran broke through last year with a .295 average and 24 stolen bases in 102 games. This year he's hit .393 through seven outings. Duran doesn't have a lot of power, but he's slugged .454 against righties since 2022. O'Neill has moved to the Red Sox after a couple of injury-plagued campaigns with the Cardinals. It's perhaps hard to remember that he had a .912 OPS with 34 homers and 15 stolen bases in 2021. While it's early, O'Neill has slashed .333/.478/.667 with two homers through six games. Story is also looking to turn things around. Even with his struggles, he's been a benefit to fantasy-minded folks. In 2022 he had 16 homers and 13 stolen bases in 94 games, and he has three 20/20 campaigns to his name.
