MLB Betting: Division Series Preview

Wild Card Results

Hits: I recommended the Rays -195, Astros +134, Dodgers -250, which each hit.

Misses: I missed on the White Sox +107 series bet, although I called them winning Game 1. I liked the Reds +113, even though I liked the Braves to win Game 1. 

Stay Aways: I thought the Indians +110, Padres -210, Cubs -177 were the best bets in those series, but I didn't like those odds enough to recommend a wager.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

5 Yankees vs. 1 Rays (at Petco Park)

The Yankees are relatively healthy while the Rays may once again be without Austin Meadows (oblique), although he has advanced to live at-bats, so he may make a go of it while clearly not being 100 percent healthy.

Projected rotations:

Game 1: Gerrit Cole vs. Blake Snell (L)

Game 2: Masahiro Tanaka vs. Tyler Glasnow

Game 3: J.A. Happ (L) vs. Charlie Morton

Game 4: Yankees bullpen vs. Ryan Yarbrough (L)

Game 5: Yankees bullpen vs. Rays bullpen

Road wRC+ vs. RHP: Yankees 87, Rays 104

Road wRC+ vs. LHP: Yankees 85, Rays 107

The Rays have the pitching edge in Games 2-5 while the Yankees' lineup might be more imposing, now that they are at full strength. Tampa Bay is well-positioned to do damage against left-handed pitching, which is probably the most interesting aspect of this series. Will the Yankees let southpaws J.A. Happ or Jordan Montgomery log more than a couple of innings apiece in this series? Will the Rays have any come from behind wins against lefties Aroldis Chapman and Zack Britton? For that reason, I think a low-scoring series favors the Rays and a high scoring series favors the Yankees.

The pick: Rays +114 on FanDuel

This is a case of the sportsbooks making the Yankees the heavy favorite because they know all the public money will come in on the Yankees, so they need to protect themselves. I'm guessing a lot of the sharp money will be coming in on the Rays, as there's a pretty good case they are the better team straight up, let alone when you can get better than even money. FanDuel has the Yankees -132 and Draft Kings has the Yankees at -139, and there's zero value at either of those prices. I don't feel overly confident in the Rays winning the series, but I think it's a toss-up at best and I lean slightly toward the Rays, so given the prices the sports books are giving us, Rays +114 is the best value bet on the board and I would bet it.

6 Astros vs. 2 Athletics (at Dodger Stadium)

Both teams will be without key hitters in Yordan Alvarez (knee) and Matt Chapman (hip), but there haven't been any relevant recent injuries on either side.

Projected rotations:

Game 1: Zack Greinke vs. Jesus Luzardo (L)

Game 2: Jose Urquidy vs. Chris Bassitt

Game 3: Lance McCullers vs. Frankie Montas

Game 4: Framber Valdez (L) vs. Sean Manaea (L)

Game 5: Cristian Javier vs. Mike Fiers

Road wRC+ vs. RHP: Astros 103, Athletics 102

Road wRC+ vs. LHP: Astros 72, Athletics 89

The Astros rotation is much more formidable, as we just don't know what we're going to get from Oakland starters 3-5. The Astros struggle against lefties, whereas the White Sox destroy lefties, so Luzardo and Manaea could have more success in this series, but I'm not sure I'd trust Manaea in an ALDS start against any opponent, regardless of their splits. Montas is great when he's going well, but he was only able to provide two innings in the NL Wild Card Series, which makes it tough to bank on him for a quality Game 3 start. McCullers has not allowed an earned run in a month, as his last three appearances of the regular season were scoreless outings and he was not needed in the first-round sweep. Valdez will be a key weapon for Houston, as Oakland struggles against southpaws as well. 

The pick: Astros +116 on FanDuel

Other than regular season win-loss record, which is obviously an important data point, I don't really see where Oakland has an edge in this series. If Montas or Manaea were humming right now, I could construct a case for the A's, but it's tough to pick a team in a five-game series when you only trust 40 percent of their starters and they don't have a distinct offensive edge. FD has Oakland -136 while DK has them -134, and I definitely wouldn't bet the A's at those prices. I will, however, bet Houston +116.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

4 Padres vs. 1 Dodgers (at Globe Life Field)

Jason Castro (jaw) did not play in the first round and should be considered day-to-day, but the big injuries in this series are on the pitching side for San Diego. Dinelson Lamet (biceps) and Mike Clevinger (elbow) were not used in the first round, and while there have been reports that they "could" be available this round, I'm proceeding under the assumption they won't pitch and if they do pitch they won't be their normal selves. The Dodgers don't have any notable injuries.

Projected rotations:

Game 1: Zach Davies vs. Clayton Kershaw (L)

Game 2: Chris Paddack vs. Walker Buehler

Game 3: Padres bullpen vs. Julio Urias (L)

Game 4: Padres bullpen vs. Dustin May

Game 5: Padres bullpen vs. Tony Gonsolin

Road wRC+ vs. RHP: Padres 101, Dodgers 106

Road wRC+ vs. LHP: Padres 109, Dodgers 110

It's not a good sign when the team facing the best team in baseball has two healthy starters and one of them (Chris Paddack) has been pitching poorly, while the other (Zach Davies) sits at 88 mph with his fastball. I picked the Padres to get out of the first round because of how terrible the Cardinals' offense is, but this is going to be the end of the road. It could have been a fun series if Lamet and Clevinger were 100 percent healthy, but even then they would have been underdogs. The offenses aren't that far apart in talent and explosiveness, but the Dodgers legitimately might have the five best starting pitchers in this series.

The pick: Dodgers -220 on FanDuel

Considering they are -286 on DK, this seems like a gift of a line by FD. The Padres' bats may steal a game or two, but there's really no case for San Diego on paper.

6 Marlins vs. 2 Braves (at Minute Maid Park)

Starling Marte (fractured pinky finger) is questionable while Atlanta's core is healthy. Neither team has five healthy playoff-caliber starters, with the Braves likely to turn to Bryse Wilson for Game 4 and bullpen games likely for both teams in a potential Game 5.

Projected rotations:

Game 1: Sandy Alcantara vs. Max Fried (L)

Game 2: Sixto Sanchez vs. Ian Anderson

Game 3: Pablo Lopez vs. Kyle Wright

Game 4: Trevor Rogers (L) vs. Bryse Wilson

Game 5: Marlins bullpen vs. Braves bullpen

Road wRC+ vs. RHP: Marlins 88, Braves 114

Road wRC+ vs. LHP: Marlins 108, Braves 105

The first three games in this series will be fascinating, as the Braves' offense is great against righties while the Marlins will be starting three great right-handed pitchers. This is reminiscent in some ways to the Braves/Reds series, where I could see the Marlins pitchers doing their job, much like Cincinnati's starters did, without getting any run support. Part of why I thought the Reds were a solid bet in Round 1 was because I thought rookies Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright would pitch like rookies, but Anderson dominated and Wright wasn't needed. While that hypothesis could apply to this series, my error was in expecting a poor Reds offense to be competent enough to hold up their side of the bargain. So while I think the Marlins are starting better pitchers in Game 2 and 3, the Braves' offense can still go off against good pitching, while the Marlins' hitters can struggle against anyone, especially if Marte is out or limited.

The pick: Stay away

My two favorite bets are Marlins +225 on DK and Braves -194 on FD. They're both tempting, but while I think the Braves will win this series, I'm not getting enough value on that FD line, given Miami's pitching and I think betting the Marlins is a bit of a sucker bet, given the state of their offense.