MLB Best Bets: Single Game Betting Picks for Thursday, September 11
There are no two ways about it......I suck right now. I'm colder than an under-cooked hot dog and arguably just as gross, so follow/fade accordingly. Baseball is a funny game and a hard one to predict, especially this time of year. But my methods have been proven over a large sample size and I'll keep plugging away as we try to end the season on a positive note. Today, I have my sights set on an AL West battle between a team fighting for a playoff spot and an undermanned team that has been scrappy all year.
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Single Game Focus: 
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners 
Pick #1: Angels ML (+140 @ BetRivers)
LA sends out Jose Soriano to face off against Seattle's Bryce Miller. Soriano has been a workhorse for the Angels with a 10-10 record over 163.2 innings. His mark is indicative of his general performances, which seem to be either very good or quite bad. One consistent pattern from Soriano has been his surprising home/road splits, as he fares better on the road than at home. For example, in his last two road starts, he went 5.2 scoreless innings at Texas and 7 scoreless innings at Houston. In stark contrast, two of his last three home starts have been blow-ups, giving up 7 ER in 4 innings vs Tampa and 8 ER in 2.1 innings vs the Athletics in his latest start. Miller has been consistently bad for the Mariners since entering the rotation last month. The Mariners are one game back in the AL West and sit 1.5 games ahead of the Rangers for the last Wildcard spot, so they need every victory they can get. However, "needing" to win guarantees nothing and can, in cases like this, provide value on the opponent. I like the Angels to win tonight.
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Pick #2: Angels/Mariners UNDER 8 (-115 @ DraftKings)
As a team, the Angels tend to pitch better and play close games on the road and the Mariners tend to do the same at home. In Seattle's three-game home sweep of St. Louis earlier this week, 6, 8, and 6 runs were scored in those games and this one has all the makings of a 4-2 Angels victory.
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Pick #3: Bryce Miller UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (+100 @ BetMGM)
This line is baffling to me....so much so that I almost want to avoid it, but I can't ignore the value based on Miller's recent form. In his four starts since joining the rotation August 19, Miller has struck out 4, 4, 3, and 3 batters over 21.1 total innings. The Angels do lead the majors in strikeouts per game over the season, but those numbers have decreased in September as the lineup has evolved. With Miller still working into form after elbow inflammation, I have to jump on this.
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MLB Picks Recap
- Angels ML (+140 @ BetRivers)
- Angels/Mariners UNDER 8 (-115 @ DraftKings)
- Bryce Miller UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (+100 @ BetMGM)
