This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Wednesday, July 3
YTD 103-103-1
Prior article 2-1 ( -0.18 units)
SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at home/road and vs. RHP/LHP over the last 30 days to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the summer, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5-inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Houston Astros 
at Toronto Blue Jays 
The Astros have finally turned their season around over the last month or so, going 19-11 and 8-2 in their last 10 while the Blue Jays are in last place in the American League East.
There is a significant difference in starting pitching with Ronel Blanco against Yusei Kikuchi. Blanco has been solid all season with a 2.49 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Oh, and he threw his no-hitter against the Blue Jays. Kikuchi has been knocked around in his last three starts for an ERA of 10.64 and 1.91 WHIP. I am not sure how the Astros are not at least -140 or -150 in this game.
MLB Picks for Astros at Blue Jays
- Astros ML for 2 units (FanDuel -110)
Cincinnati Reds 
at New York Yankees 
Carlos Rodon is starting to show the warts of past seasons with a 13.17 ERA and 2.49 WHIP in his last three starts. Andrew Abbott is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball with a 3.41 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. The great thing about Abbott's season is he has only allowed more than three earned runs twice.
This is a rare case where we get a live road dog at a great price against an inflated home favorite with a pitcher who is more name value than performance.
MLB Picks for Reds at Yankees
- Reds ML for 1 unit (BetRivers +163)
Philadelphia Phillies 
at Chicago Cubs 
Zack Wheeler has some extreme home/road splits, but the Cubs have been dismal and I cannot get behind them especially at this short of a price. Shota Imanaga has started to struggle as the league is now seeing him for a second time and there are scouting reports on him.
Wheeler has been a huge UNDER pitcher on the road despite the splits (3-7, 6-13 last 10/20). The Phillies are missing two key bats in Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, so I can see this being a lower-scoring close game, but still in favor of the Phillies.
MLB Picks for Phillies at Cubs
- Phillies ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -116)
Baltimore Orioles 
at Seattle Mariners 
The Mariners' offensive woes continued in yesterday's loss to the Orioles, 2-0. They have scored over four runs in just two out of their last 10. This, along with the UNDER being 9-1 in Gilbert's last 10 home starts, has me looking at another UNDER in the game.
This play is tricky because the Orioles are the best hitting team against right-handed pitching on the season and in the last 30 days. But they only scored two runs in yesterday's game and have averaged 3.9 runs per game in their last 10. Two of those games saw them score 11 and eight runs, respectively, which drove up the average runs per game.
MLB Picks for Orioles at Mariners
- Orioles/Mariners UNDER 7.0 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -103)
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MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Astros ML for 2 units (FanDuel -110)
- Reds ML for 1 unit (BetRivers +163)
- Phillies ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -116)
- Orioles/Mariners UNDER 7.0 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -103)
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