Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

This week has already seen some big-league debuts for several stellar phenoms, and more are on the way. Atlanta's Hurston Waldrep started Sunday versus the Nationals and was nearly perfect before the bottom fell out in the fourth inning. First baseman Tyler Locklear collected his first MLB hit in his debut on Sunday for the Mariners after being called up following an injury to Ty France. A second-round pick in 2022, Locklear slashed a combined .293/.404/.520 with nine homers and 33 RBI in 51 games between Double-A and Triple-A. Adael Amador's recent hot streak at Double-A in the Colorado organization turned enough heads to warrant a promotion in the wake of the Brendan Rodgers' injury and notched his own first big-league hit Sunday. Meanwhile, hurler Drew Thorpe is set to make his primetime premiere Tuesday for the White Sox. He was the primary piece in the Juan Soto deal, then was jettisoned to Chicago in the Dylan Cease trade.  Despite the wheeling and dealing, Thorpe is an elite pitching prospect with a minuscule 1.35 ERA and standout 56:17 K:BB from 60 innings at Double-A. 

Let's take a look at some other prospects making waves in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Adam Macko, P, TOR – Ricky Tiedemann gets most of the prospect pub from a pitching perspective in the Toronto system, yet Macko is enjoying a breakout season at Double-A with a 3.60 ERA and 71:19 K:BB across 55 innings. The 23-year-old southpaw has been even more impressive the last month as he's posted a 2.81 ERA and 46:7 K:BB from his last 32 frames. And overall, opposing batters are hitting only .209 against Macko. His newfound control has been the biggest key to his success along with two stellar pitches (fastball/curveball) with the development of a third (likely a changeup) possibly being the difference between a future innings eater or a frontline starter. Either way, Macko has certainly helped his cause this season.

Brandon Sproat, P, NYM – Yet another Florida Gator selected by the Mets, Sproat has been dominant in his first full year in the minors as he fanned 33 batters in 25.1 innings at High-A to earn a quick promotion to Double-A. He's been even better through four starts at the new level as he's struck out 30 batters over 26 innings while only walking six. By contrast, Sproat slightly struggled with free passes during his brief stint at High-A. He's also allowed one earned run or fewer in nine of his 10 outings this season. Sproat's last appearances was the best of his brief professional career as he only conceded one hit over seven shutout innings while walking one and fanning 10. This meteoric rise could take him all the way to the bigs by the end of 2024. And if not, he'll almost certainly see Triple-A should this hot streak continue.

Brayden Taylor, 3B, TB – A first-rounder out of TCU in last year's Draft, Taylor seems like the quintessential Rays' prospect. While he doesn't boast the loud raw tools of some other highly-touted phenoms, he does a lot of things well having slashing .277/.403/.538 with eight home runs, 29 RBI and 13 steals in 49 games at High-A. Taylor's staple was supposed to be his ability to hit, but he's on pace for 20 homers and 20 stolen bases during his first full pro campaign. And it's clear he knows the strike zone and can work the count. Taylor's excellent makeup and polish at the dish will serve him well at the higher levels. Tampa's notoriously stingy in promoting their prospects, and Taylor is currently being overshadowed by teammate Xavier Isaac, though he's still an exceptional talent in his own right.

Moises Ballesteros, C, CHC – Ballesteros is a 20-year-old catching prospect who stands at 5'7", yet is an extremely advanced hitter for his age. Across three levels last season as a teenager, he produced a .285/.374/.449 line with 14 home runs, 64 RBI and seven steals while drawing 63 walks and only striking out 78 times. The step-up in competition has done little to affect Ballesteros, who's currently slashing .289/.370/.457 with seven homers and 34 RBI through 51 games at Double-A alongside 21 walks and 31 Ks. A move out from catcher could be in the cards, which would slightly decrease his future fantasy value. But what is clear is that Ballesteros has a special bat from the left side.

CHECK STATUS

Luis Perales, P, BOS – Perales left his last start at Double-A due to injury, and has since been diagnosed with elbow inflammation. While initial signs don't point to a serious issue, he's yet to undergo diagnostic testing. Perales is arguably the top pitching prospect in the Boston organization after fanning 115 batters in 89.2 innings last season between Low-A and High-A, though he did battle control issues from time to time while also being prone to the long ball. That hasn't been the case thus far in 2024 with Perales sporting a 2.94 ERA and 56:12 K:BB in only 33.2 innings between Low-A and Double-A while only surrendering one homer over nine starts prior to the injury. While he's unlikely to move up to the Majors this season even if he returns to health due to a likely innings restriction, he could get there as early as 2025 if all goes according to plan.

Hector Rodriguez, OF, CIN – Rodriguez was the Dominican Winter League Rookie of the Year and has hit at virtually every stop thus far as a professional. His strikeouts are way down from a season ago, though he's still impatient at the dish. But as Rodriguez has never gone below .293 in any full season, it's difficult to argue with his process and approach. He's currently slashing .295/.326/.438 with five home runs and four steals through 55 games at High-A with 10 walks and 24 strikeouts.  Rodriguez managed 16 homers and 18 swipes from 115 games in 2023, so the possibility remains for him to hit for average while also notching double-digits in the main categories as he ascends to the higher levels. He's still only 20, so his power numbers could even get better as he matures.  But one has to wonder whether at some point Rodriguez's uber-aggressiveness at the plate will be used against him.

Carter Jensen, C, KC – A third-round selection in 2021, Jensen struggled to hit for average at both Low-A in 2022 and High-A the next season. Repeating the latter level this year, the 20-year-old backstop finally found his footing slashing .293/.421/.473 with six home runs, 24 RBI and 12 steals over 56 contests with as many walks as strikeouts (44) and a continued patience at the dish. Jensen's raw power has yet to translate into home run production, and that along with keeping his average up will be vital in determining what type of player he can be in the future.

Angel Genao, SS, CLE – Genao has been brought along slowly by Cleveland, but the training wheels have finally come off. He was sensational to start the season at Low-A as he registered a .341/.383/.553 line with six homers, 39 RBI and 12 stolen bases in 44 games. Genao parlayed that fast start into a quick move up to High-A, where the recently-turned 20-year-old is 6-for-20 (.300) with a home run across five outings. The switch-hitter is rather small in stature, yet has an advanced approach at the plate and has already exceeded his power expectations. Genao missed two months last season due to a meniscus tear, so that likely kept him secret for a while. But if he continues to hit like this, he'll be far from an unknown by the time 2024 is done.

DOWNGRADE

Aidan Curry, P, TEX – Curry dominated at Low-A a season ago with a 2.30 ERA and 99:29 K:BB over 82 innings, though has experienced a difficult adjustment to High-A after being hit hard in two starts at to end the campaign while continuing that into 2024 with an 8.08 ERA from 10 outings.  He's fanned 53 batters in 39 frames, yet he's also given up 23 walks and 11 homers. The combination of added traffic on the basepaths and the penchant for surrendering the long ball has spelled disaster for Curry this season. The strikeout stuff has remained constant and that gives him the chance to turn things around, though it appears some tweaks are necessary.

Will Warren, P, NYY – There has been little to complain about the Yankees' starting rotation. Despite Gerrit Cole not throwing a single pitch in 2024, they list the Majors' lowest team ERA. Though Clarke Schmidt ended up on the IL, Cole should return soon. Luis Gil is the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year. And unless additional health issues arise, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman and Nestor Cortes all appear locked into their respective spots. Warren nearly made the rotation out of spring training instead of Schmidt, though the former's struggles at Triple-A show New York made the right decision when the latter went down. Warren carries an unsightly 7.24 ERA through 12 starts while yielding 13 home runs. As a result, the Yankees passed him over and instead called on journeyman Cody Poteet to fill Schmidt's slot until Cole comes back. As such, not only does Warren need to show improvement in limiting the opposition (his last outing was a start), but would also likely need an injury or trade to see the bigs this season.