Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Several prospects have recently been scorching, in alignment with the surging summer temperatures. Jasson Dominguez has had an inconsistent season, but "The Martian" is batting .333 in August with seven stolen bases at Double-A in the Yankees organization. Jackson Chourio is making a case for consideration as the top neophyte in baseball after slashing .388/.447/.718 with six home runs, 20 RBI and nine steals in July. The only prospect better than Chourio right now is Jackson Holliday, who's hitting .405 in August as a 19-year-old at Double-A. Meanwhile, Junior Caminero is demolishing the competition at Double-A in the Rays system by going .348 with five home runs so far this month. Jordan Lawlar just received a bump to Arizona's Triple-A squad after batting .349 with two homers, eight RBI and five steals to begin August.

While the exploits of baseball's elite prospects are well publicized, this week's Minor League Barometer will take a look at some lesser-known examples who should be garnering more notoriety.

UPGRADE

Thomas Saggese, SS, STL – For whatever reason, Saggese has been flying under the radar. He's registered double-digit home runs and stolen bases in each of the last three seasons and is hitting over .300 in each of the last two. Saggese began the season at Double-A in the Rangers organization where he slashed .313/.379/.512 with 15 home runs, 78 RBI and eight steals in 93 games. He was shipped to St. Louis as part of the Jordan Montgomery trade, and has not stopped raking by going .341 with four homers, six RBI and two steals through 12 contests. Saggese isn't the biggest and does see his fair share of strikeouts, but it's difficult to argue with the production. The rebuilding Cards may have a hidden gem on their hands to pair with fellow middle infield prospect Masyn Winn.

Xavier Isaac, 1B, TB – The Rays jettisoned Kyle Manzardo at the trade deadline to Cleveland in exchange for Aaron Civale and some pitching help, though the undertone to that deal is that Isaac - who plays the same position as Manzardo - may eventually be Tampa's future first baseman.  Though he's not yet close to making a big-league impact, he's more than held his own at Low-A as a teenager by slashing .274/.387/.480 with 13 home runs, 54 RBI and eight stolen bases. Isaac has also been surging in August with a .378/.468/.514 line over 10 appearances. He's not afraid to take a walk and boasts massive raw power from the left side, which should translate to more in-game power as he matures. Isaac also doesn't strike out quite as much as would normally be expected for his size and swing. The Rays are notoriously conservative with their prospects, but he could see High-A before the end of the year.

Haydn McGeary, 1B, CHC – A 15th-round pick out of Division II Colorado Mesa in 2022, McGeary has already exceeded expectations. The 23-year-old destroyed High-A pitching in 20 games to begin the campaign, resulting in a quick promotion to Double-A. McGeary has done well at the new level by slashing .275/.403/.460 with 12 homers and 59 RBI from 79 outings. Matt Mervis is ahead of McGeary on the depth chart, though the former struggled during his brief time with the big club earlier this year. McGeary also holds the all-time Division II home run mark, so there's no questioning his power, strength and bat speed from the right side.

Samuel Basallo, C/1B, BAL – The O's should have Adley Rutschman behind the dish for the next decade, but there's no such thing as too much depth and Basallo's bat may end up being good enough to keep in the lineup. At just 18, he performed admirably at Low-A to begin the year by slashing .299/.384/.503 with 12 home runs, 60 RBI and seven stolen bases. Basallo already generates tremendous power, yet also has added some muscle during his first full season of professional ball. He was recently promoted to High-A where despite just celebrating his 19th birthday, he'll still be one of the youngest players at the level. Basallo's advanced polish at the dish only furthers the notion his hit tool and plate recognition are legitimate. Baltimore has time to figure out where he'll ultimately end up defensively, but it appears his hitting will play anywhere.

CHECK STATUS

Alan Roden, OF, TOR – Roden's stellar handling of both the bat and the strike zone is evident as he's tormented High-A pitching earlier so far going .321 with a .437 OBP in 69 games, more walks (42) than strikeouts (32) and 15 swipes despite only average speed. The question for the 2022 co-Big East Player of the Year will be whether he can hit for power, though he's not completely devoid of pop as displayed by his six homers between High-A and Double-A. Roden should be able to hit, get on base and even steal some bases to provide value in the Toronto system.

Carlos De La Cruz, OF, PHI – De La Cruz is difficult to miss at 6'8", but somehow seems to get lost in the shuffle. He's among the Eastern League leaders in home runs with 20. De La Cruz does have plenty of swing and miss in his profile, but is still hitting .274 through 103 games at Double-A. He's shown fewer holes in his swing than one would expect for a player of his height, though the lack of patience at the dish does affect his OBP - and his current .346 would be his highest qualified mark in the minors to date. If De La Cruz could draw a few more walks, the 23-year-old could improve his power prospect profile and really find himself in the Phillies' future plans.

David Festa, P, MIN – Festa doesn't throw hard, yet still manages plenty of swings and misses from opposing hitters. After the polished collegian proved too much for the competition at Low-A and High-A in 2022, he's been challenged a bit more at Double-A with a 4.56 ERA and 97:33 K:BB across 75 innings. Festa's command has been rather inconsistent, and the bump in levels has resulted in more hard-hit balls and homers while opposing batters have gone .257 against compared to .257 last year. The 13th-round selection from 2021 has already been a find for the Twins, but his command and sequencing must improve if he wants to stick as a starter at the higher levels.

Spencer Arrighetti, P, HOU – The Astros dealt a couple of their top prospects to the Mets in exchange for Justin Verlander, moving a few names within the organization up a few notches.  Arrighetti may be the top pitching prospect for the Astros right now, as he's reached his fifth level in only two seasons since going in the sixth round of the 2021 Draft. He was well-traveled in college pitching at three stops in three years, though has immensely and quickly improved his stuff. Arrighetti has also gained a few ticks on the radar gun with his fastball, upgraded his slider and even utilizes a curveball and changeup to keep hitters off balance. His control is still a work in progress, though he's always offered massive strikeout material and the deception in his delivery also helps. Arrighetti fanned 152 batters in only 106.2 innings between two levels in 2022. His ERA is high this season due to the inability to consistently locate his pitches, and he could end up in the bullpen. That being said, the strikeout potential will always keep Arrighetti in the mix.

DOWNGRADE

Jacob Berry, 1B/3B, MIA – The No. 6 overall selection last year has struggled so far. Berry began the campaign at High-A, where he only slashed .227/.278/.369 with four homers, 37 RBI and five steals in 79 games and fanning 70 times while drawing just 16 walks. Despite his difficulties at High-A, the Marlins decided to take an ultra-aggressive approach with him, hoping a change of scenery was needed and promoted him to Double-A. At this new level, Berry is only hitting .203 through 17 appearances, though he does have two home runs and three steals. His struggles were not foreseen, yet he never boasted the greatest exit velocities even when raking in college. Berry has plenty of time to right the ship, but his poor performance early on is rather shocking.

Ky Bush, P, CHW – Though Edgar Quero was the prize of the trade that sent Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez to the Angels, Bush was once a highly-touted prospect in his own right. A second-round selection in 2021, the 6'6" southpaw compiled an above-average 2022 campaign at Double-A with a 3.67 ERA and 101:29 K:BB over 103 innings but did allow 14 home runs in 21 starts. Bush began 2023 on the Injured List with an oblique strain, and hasn't looked right since returning. He was batted around in two rehab starts, then posted a 5.88 ERA in six starts at Double-A before being dealt. Three starts since joining the White Sox system haven't gone much better as Bush has allowed a staggering 24 hits from just 12.1 frames, including five homers. He's also walked seven batters while fanning eight over that span. Instead of being poised to possibly make his big-league debut next month, Bush is likely to remain at Double-A for the remainder of the campaign.