The Z Files: First-Half Hitters Review

We're a week into the second half. Let's take stock of the first three months and look towards the final three. What follows is a position-by-position breakdown of the first half. The top-15 earners at C, 1B, 2B, 3B and SS are presented, along with the top-five designated hitters and top-40 outfielders. The earnings are based on standard 15-team 5x5 scoring, and each player is assigned to one spot.

The first half results are on the left, with my second half projected earnings on the right. The yellow shaded names fall out of the rankings while the blue shaded players move into them.

CATCHER

Alvarez, Murphy and the elder Contreras all missed significant time over the first half. Contreras and Alvarez posted a 151 wRC+ and were well on their way into the top 15.

Murphy struggled over the first half, and his underlying metrics are not strong. Even so, I trust his track record and am expecting a rebound.

Stephenson missed a few games, but the main reason he failed to crack the first-half top 15 was hitting into some bad luck. His 77th percentile hard-hit rate should have resulted in a BABIP higher than .270, and he fanned at a lower clip than last season.

Fry's first half was driven by a sensational month of May. He should continue to produce at a better-than-expected level, just not top-15 worthy.

Langeliers has a similar monthly trend and during his hot May, he still fanned 29 percent of the time. He has pop but remains a batting average liability.

FIRST BASE

First base is more about the players falling out than those jumping in, with the exception of Triston Casas. The Red Sox first baseman is sidelined after being diagnosed with a cartilage tear in his left ribcage. He still has yet to progress past dry swings, so a return date (and hence his ranking) is mostly speculation. For those curious, Rhys Hoskins and Ryan Mountcastle just missed the top-15 ROS cut.

Speaking of Mountcastle, the reason he's not in the ROS top 15 is a playing time concern. I'm probably overthinking this, but as a right-handed swinger, he could be squeezed over the second half. That said, the update I am using was from a week ago when Heston Kjerstad appeared to be on the busier side of a platoon, which could cost Mountcastle playing time. Kjerstad has since struggled, and was on the bench with a righty on the hill Wednesday night. Chances are, Mountcastle is still a top-15, if not top-10 ROS first baseman.

Carlos Santana was also a ROS playing-time casualty, but with the injury to Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda will likely play a lot of third base, so Santana will have a long leash at first base. Keep in mind Santana was losing playing time before he caught fire in early June.

SECOND BASE

Second base is surprisingly deep, and it goes beyond the volume of players with multiple position eligibility. The bottom of the top 15 at the keystone has, by far, the highest first-half earnings, and second-half projected earnings.

The players are also tightly bunched, which makes the lack of movement in and out of the position a bit surprising. Jake Cronenworth and Jonathan India falling out is not a reflection of a second-half slide, it's more about the fact that even if they pull back a little, they'll fall several places since the pool is closely clustered.

Ozzie Albies is interesting. He missed time in April, but not enough to keep him from the top 15. His issue is a lack of runs and RBI. Some of that can be attributed to losing Ronald Acuna and Michael Harris. Albies has a strong .324 batting average with runners in scoring position, but he's only been up 85 times in that scenario. By contrast, Alec Bohm, who is third in the league in RBI, has a similar .337 batting average with runners in scoring position, but he's batted 110 times under those conditions. Albies scoring has been tainted by slow first halves from Matt Olson and Austin Riley, both of which are pacing for well under 100 RBI. Albies' production should piggyback a stronger second half from Olson and Riley.

I'm surprised Luis Garcia didn't make either list. This is an artifact of the quality of the second base inventory. He and Jonathan India both just missed the second half cut. Including Zack Gelof and Mookie Betts is questionable, so it wouldn't be surprising if Garcia or India finish in the top 15 over the final three months.

Clearly, with Betts, it's a matter of when he returns. He's running and throwing, but he's yet to swing a bat. It doesn't matter for eligibility purposes, but Dodgers manager Dave Roberts suggested that Betts may move to second base, leaving Miguel Rojas to handle shortstop. Betts began the season with 2B and OF eligibility. He's played 65 times at shortstop and only 16 at second base. Betts has yet to appear in the outfield, but with four more games at second, he'll have 2B and SS eligibility in 2025.

THIRD BASE

The hot corner is also mostly about the trio moving in than the troika leaving. Ke'Bryan Hayes and Noelvi Marte missed time, albeit for different reasons. Both should easily be top-15 third baseman over the second half.

In full disclosure, this spot was manually adjusted after Royce Lewis' latest injury, and the report that Josh Jung experienced a setback. Jose Miranda's spot was in jeopardy, but he sneaks in as a result.

The wild card is Tampa Bay rookie Junior Caminero. James Anderson's No. 4 overall prospect remains sidelined with a Grade 2 left quad strain. At this point, there's no reason for the Rays to rush the 20-year-old, so the odds he plays enough to earn top-15 status are slim.

Before moving on to shortstop, let's take a moment to recognize the greatness that is Jose Ramirez. In today's landscape, it's unprecedented that someone of his caliber can still be underappreciated.

SHORTSTOP

You know what? I may need a Bo Bichette intervention. I mean, if you want to knock him out and add Jackson Merrill or Jeremy Pena, be my guest. Shoot, you can even make a case for Dansby Swanson over Bichette. 

The story here, of course, is the Big Three. Throw their names in a hat. Elly De La Cruz probably has a higher ceiling than Bobby Witt or Gunnar Henderson, but he has a lower floor.

I'm a little concerned about Anthony Volpe. He changed his approach this season, favoring contact over power. It's worked, but as the season has progressed, he's sacrificed even more pop than expected. Volpe hit three homers in March/April, then three more in May. He failed to leave the yard at all in June. Not to mention, Volpe's strikeout rate has grown each month.

OUTFIELD

There are a lot of names here. I'll tackle some of the more intriguing players. If I missed someone for which you'd like more information, hit me up in the comments, for outfield or any position.

Raise your hand if you have remorse for passing on Aaron Judge. Keep in mind, heading into the season the narrative was that Judge was going to be dealing with residual foot issues all season, managing pain, etc. Clearly, it has not been an issue.

I was surprised at how high James Wood landed. Like any prospect, we can use MLE translations to ballpark expectations, but there are wide error bars. The ranking reflects his category-stuffing potential, and the fact that the Nationals are committed to playing the rookie nearly every game.

That said, I'm uncomfortable having Wood ranked higher than Wyatt Langford. The reason is some of Langford's first half is pulling his projection down. In a heads-up, Langford versus Wood ROS bet, I'd take Langford.

The latest report on Kyle Tucker is encouraging. Even so, if you want to drop him five or 10 spots until he's back and productive, I won't push back.

Julio Rodriguez in the top five is up for debate. However, even in a subpar first half, Rodriguez checks in as the 19th-best outfielder. He's still hitting the ball hard, but as Jeff Erickson pointed out on our Wednesday SiriusXM Fantasy Radio show, he's not pulling the ball, and he's pounding it into the ground. Both seem approach-related, so maybe Rodriguez can get back on track.

Speaking of getting back on track, Corbin Carroll has entered the chat. Honestly? I don't know. Carroll's not hitting the ball with the same authority as last season. This is an instance where comparing his Bat Speed to last season's mark would be useful, since it's a seemingly solid 78th percentile. Some continue to suggest Carroll is experiencing lingering shoulder issues. I disagree, but who knows?

DESIGNATED HITTER

Admittedly, a few of these guys have gained outfield eligibility, but I stuck with initial eligibility. On Wednesday's show, Jeff and I had a great conversation concerning process, specifically with respect to Shohei Ohtani, but it also applies to Aaron Judge. Everyone knows the risks with both; there's no use regurgitating them. The question is whether we penalized them too much when drafting?

My take may seem like a middling copout, but it depends on one's portfolio. If you're only playing in one league, then passing on such an early risk is warranted. However, let's be real. Not only Jeff and I, but many of you, also play in multiple leagues. Here, some exposure to Ohtani and Judge is needed. To me, not having some reflects a flawed process.

Jeff asked where I think Ohtani will be drafted next season. The question loses some zing since he won't be 100 percent as a pitcher. The answer could be different in 2026, but for next year, I'll rank him as a hitter only. Despite clogging the utility spot, I'll have Ohtani in the top five. You have to purposely avoid drafting flexible players in today's landscape; they're everywhere. Draft and hold formats are an exception, but in leagues with in-season pickups, I don't view Ohtani as UT-only as a problem.

Next time: Mid-season pitching review.