This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
Third base has become something of a glamour position in fantasy baseball. There are currently 10 third basemen going inside the top 80 in NFBC drafts and 15 going inside the top 120. It is deeper than first base by quite a bit. This makes sense when you think about it. You have to be somewhat athletic to handle the hot corner, and the offensive bar to clear is high – so we're typically looking at big, athletic mashers at third base. It is where many players who sign as shortstops end up when they outgrow the six. As such, there is some guesswork with where these players will end up once they reach the majors. Some may end up elsewhere in the infield, but this is my best guess.
Here are the 2019 third base prospect tiers:
TIER ONE
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
I'm really tired of talking about Vlad, the player, so here is some draft prep intel: in a standard 5x5 roto with a 68/32 hitter/pitcher split, I have him valued as a $24 player, and that's without factoring in the stats I'd be getting from someone like Todd Frazier over the first couple weeks. The other hitters I have at $24: Bryce Harper, Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi, Whit Merrifield, and Juan Soto.
TIER TWO
2. Austin Riley, Braves
3. Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pirates
4. Nolan Jones, Indians
5. Jonathan India, Reds
6. Carter Kieboom,
Third base has become something of a glamour position in fantasy baseball. There are currently 10 third basemen going inside the top 80 in NFBC drafts and 15 going inside the top 120. It is deeper than first base by quite a bit. This makes sense when you think about it. You have to be somewhat athletic to handle the hot corner, and the offensive bar to clear is high – so we're typically looking at big, athletic mashers at third base. It is where many players who sign as shortstops end up when they outgrow the six. As such, there is some guesswork with where these players will end up once they reach the majors. Some may end up elsewhere in the infield, but this is my best guess.
Here are the 2019 third base prospect tiers:
TIER ONE
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
I'm really tired of talking about Vlad, the player, so here is some draft prep intel: in a standard 5x5 roto with a 68/32 hitter/pitcher split, I have him valued as a $24 player, and that's without factoring in the stats I'd be getting from someone like Todd Frazier over the first couple weeks. The other hitters I have at $24: Bryce Harper, Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi, Whit Merrifield, and Juan Soto.
TIER TWO
2. Austin Riley, Braves
3. Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pirates
4. Nolan Jones, Indians
5. Jonathan India, Reds
6. Carter Kieboom, Nationals
Positional guesswork is already coming into play in the second tier. Riley is a third baseman by trade, but could debut in an outfield corner. Hayes could win Gold Gloves at the position, so he's not going anywhere. Jones is about a 50/50 bet to stay at third base long term. He could move to an outfield corner or to first base. The bat will play anywhere. India may not debut at third base, simply because he's capable of playing second base and even shortstop in a pinch. Kieboom might be the most surprising name to see here. He's not going to displace Trea Turner at shortstop, and I think Luis Garcia fits better at second base, so I'm going to assume Kieboom takes over at third base if the Nationals let Anthony Rendon walk after this season. Obviously if Rendon stays, Kieboom may debut at the keystone.
TIER THREE
7. Hudson Potts, Padres
8. Nolan Gorman, Cardinals
9. Mark Vientos, Mets
10. Jordan Groshans, Blue Jays
11. Colton Welker, Rockies
12. Elehuris Montero, Cardinals
13. Isaac Paredes, Tigers
14. Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles
15. Shervyen Newton, Mets
16. Oneil Cruz, Pirates
Now we're starting to get to the players who either have clear flaws or are a long way away from the majors. For the most part, the riskiest players in this tier have the most upside. Welker might be a notable exception, as his biggest risk factors are that he gets traded, or the Rockies give him the Rockie prospect treatment. He has a very high ceiling if he is playing every day in Colorado. Vientos and Groshans are the only players in this tier that I am confident will end up at third base. Most of the others could end up at first base, while Paredes and Newton could play second base and Mountcastle and Cruz could end up in the outfield.
TIER FOUR
17. Orelvis Martinez, Blue Jays
18. Noelvi Marte, Mariners
19. Michael Chavis, Red Sox
20. Sherten Apostel, Rangers
21. Bobby Dalbec, Red Sox
Martinez and Marte are my second and third ranked prospects from the 2018 July 2 international signing class, respectively. Martinez is a hit/power type while Marte could be a power/speed/OK average type, but we will obviously learn more about their strengths and weaknesses when they debut this summer. One could argue that Apostel should be in the third tier, but I think he may struggle to make contact at an acceptable clip as he moves up the ladder, and he could also outgrow third base.
TIER FIVE
22. Gabriel Rodriguez, Indians
23. Luis Toribio, Giants
24. Ryan Vilade, Rockies
25. Jake Burger, White Sox
26. Danny Diaz, Red Sox
27. Junior Sanquintin, Indians
28. Jonathan Ornelas, Rangers
29. Owen Miller, Padres
30. CJ Alexander, Braves
31. Yu Chang, Indians
This is kind of an odds and ends tier. We have some 2018 draftees who had promising debuts (Ornelas, Miller, Alexander), some recent J-2 guys with upside (Rodriguez, Toribio, Diaz, Sanquintin) and some 2017 draftees with debatable big-league futures (Vilade, Burger). We also have Chang, who could be the Indians' Opening Day shortstop after Francisco Lindor's injury, but who obviously doesn't fit into Cleveland's long-term plans at shortstop. He could also end up at second base or as a utility infielder.
Honorable Mentions: Bryce Bush (CWS), Kelvin Gutierrez (KC), Sheldon Neuse (OAK), Brandon Howlett (BOS), Abraham Toro (HOU), Buddy Kennedy (ARI), Drew Ellis (ARI), Joe Perez (HOU), Lucas Erceg (MIL), Korry Howell (MIL), Diosbel Arias (TEX), Josh Fuentes (COL), Adinso Reyes (DET), James Nelson (MIA), Joe Dunand (MIA), Chad McClanahan (MIL), Will Toffey (NYM), Jaylen Palmer (NYM), Jordan Diaz (OAK)
