Farm Futures: Ranking Dilemmas: Prospects 176-200

The indefinite suspension of MLB, MiLB and fantasy baseball seasons are obviously a minor inconvenience compared to everything else going on in the world. However, in an effort to provide a distraction during this difficult period, I am going to peel back the curtain of my top-400 prospect rankings. This eighth article will cover my updated 176-200 prospects. I will continue this series, working down my top-400 prospect rankings every week throughout this hiatus.

In addition to each player's rank, I have noted where I believe the tiers are in the rankings and where each prospect was ranked on 10/1/19 and 1/1/20 (there are now graphs on each player's page to show how their ranking on the top 400 has changed), to provide a glimpse of how my valuation of these prospects has evolved throughout the offseason and spring training. For the players who saw big jumps from 10/1/19 to 1/1/20, my evaluation of that player changed significantly when I was able to do a deep dive on them while writing their outlook (available at the top right of each player page) for the magazine. Sometimes when I'm writing up a player, I have that ah-ha moment where I realize they need to be bumped quite a bit higher/lower, which is why there is sometimes significant movement when games aren't being played. The tier from last week's edition that began with Alexfri Planez at No. 162 continues over to this week's list, so there is one big tier from 162-200.

Might Be Too Low

I'm content with where I have them ranked, but these are the players who I'm most worried about being too low on.

Hitter: Isaac Paredes/Aaron Schunk

In my estimation, Paredes is all floor and no ceiling. He has a really bad body (5-foot-11, 225 pounds) for his alleged age (21) and there are whispers that he is a year or two older than what he is listed. His hard-hit data is not encouraging (22.0 Hard%) for a player of his size who will probably be a mediocre-to-poor defender wherever he ends up (the Tigers will debut him at third base). All that said, there is no debating the fact he has great bat-to-ball skill and his walk rates continue to tick up. He has logged groundball rates below 40 percent at almost every stop. He is also very close to the majors and has a clear path to playing time on this talent-deprived Tigers roster. In a 20-team dynasty league, a player who plays every day and hits around .280 with a good OBP and favorable lineup placement will have value, even if that player only hits 15-20 home runs and doesn't contribute on the bases. I would rather use a roster spot on a player with a high ceiling, even if that player is a pitching prospect who is a couple years away or a position player who has only played in the Dominican Summer League, but I acknowledge that Paredes is a much better bet to provide some fantasy value than those two archetypes.

I love everything about Schunk. I just don't trust the Rockies. I think he will be above-average at pretty much everything except running, and he will still be a sneaky stolen-base threat. A two-way player at Georgia, I think he will continue to improve as a hitter now that he can devote his sole focus to that aspect of the game. As you know, I buy Schunk's bat more than Ryan Vilade's, but Vilade should beat him to the majors, and who knows what position Brendan Rodgers and Ryan McMahon will be playing when Schunk is big-league ready. I'm already pretty aggressive by having Schunk in the top 200, but I would have him ranked higher if there weren't so many road blocks ahead of him on the organizational depth chart.

Pitcher: Corbin Martin

Even fantasy players who don't play dynasty know who Martin is after he was the big-ticket pitching option in last year's FAAB-a-palooza. Those fantasy players probably hate Martin, as he wasted no time in submarining their ratios before eventually needing Tommy John surgery in July of 2019. However, he got as high as No. 58 overall on the top 400, and all the ingredients that led to him climbing that high will still exist if he makes it all the way back to full health. He also moved to a fantastic situation in Arizona via the Zack Greinke trade, where he will benefit from excellent up-the-middle defense and the potential lack of the designated hitter. The longer we go without baseball, the healthier Martin is getting, and at the very least he will be ready for spring training in 2021.

Might Be Too High

These are guys who I keep thinking I might have ranked a little bit too high.

Hitter: Jonathan India/Brice Turang

India has dropped on every top-400 update since Sept. 29, so obviously this has been a "might be too high" guy for a while. The big drop came after I saw him in the Arizona Fall League — I actually saw him hit one of his three home runs on that circuit, but he dropped because his at-bats were generally pretty poor and his body has really regressed since I fell in love with him as a prospect in that infamous outlier junior season at Florida. Back then, I thought he had a chance to move all over the diamond while providing some sneaky 10-12 steal seasons on the bases. He has lost most of that explosiveness and has thickened in his waist and hips. He may be able to provide good enough defense to handle the hot corner, but his defense is no longer a strong suit, so his bat needs to be an asset, and I just don't think it will get there.

Turang's glove will keep him in the middle of the diamond and his on-base/contact skills could warrant a spot atop a big-league lineup some day. His plus speed plays up on the bases, which is the big selling point for fantasy. However, my poor man's Nick Madrigal comp applies largely because of his inability to impact the baseball. Like Madrigal, he doesn't really try to hit for power, logging Oppo% north of 40 percent at every stop above rookie ball. His 17.0 Hard% last year was abysmal. He stands six feet tall and is just 20 years old (three years younger and five inches taller than Madrigal), so the book isn't closed on him developing 10-15 homer pop. But if he fails to do so, it will be tough for him to be an everyday player in the majors. He remains in the top 200 because he has legitimate 20-plus steal upside.

Pitcher: James Kaprielian/Zack Thompson

Kaprielian was one of the better stories in the minors last year, as he returned from a long list of arm injuries and finished particularly strong down the stretch. He was reportedly touching 96 mph and dominated despite the long layoff and a significant lack of MiLB experience. Even so, he is already 26 years old, and if he suffers another arm injury I'll feel like a sucker for buying into the comeback story. Thankfully he is on the 40-man roster, so most of whatever bullets he has remaining should come in the majors in some capacity. I still buy a No. 2/3 starter ceiling, but you could say he's the prospect version of Garrett Richards. Fool me once, etc...

I was not a fan of Thompson in the draft, largely due to health and durability concerns, so like with Kaprielian, I'm mildly concerned that I might be underrating the injury risk just because he's healthy now. He has a lot of great traits: good size (6-foot-2, 225 pounds), four pitches (chance for plus fastball, plus curveball, plus slider) and he is in one of the best organizations at developing starting pitching. However, he has not shown he can handle a full pro season, as the Cardinals primarily deployed him as a reliever last season. If he gets hurt, I'll probably be kicking myself for not sticking to my guns.

Feel free to ask me any prospect-related questions in the comments section or on Twitter.