Farm Futures: Noteworthy Assignments, Injury Updates

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Updated on May 6, 2021 1:59PM EST

With this set to be the most volatile minor-league season in recent history in terms of expected talent level of the players involved, I think we can read something into some of the level assignments for the top-400 prospects. We just don't have a great gauge on how good some of these guys are, as we haven't seen some of them play in games with tracked stats in almost two years. There are certain organizations that are taking a very conservative approach with their assignments — Baltimore and San Francisco stand out. There are others that were more aggressive with their assignments, such as Cleveland and Pittsburgh. The more interesting cases are where an outlier player is assigned higher or lower than we might have suspected a week ago.

VOTES OF CONFIDENCE

Bobby Witt - Double-A

CJ Abrams - Double-A

Two 20-year-old shortstops who are also top-five overall prospects and were drafted out of high school in the top six of the 2019 draft, Witt and Abrams were assigned as high as we could have realistically expected them to be. Some may have been looking for Witt to get assigned to Triple-A, but that would have been quite aggressive for a player who will be making his full-season debut. Witt's performance will dictate whether he gets the call and when. If he is dominant and there is a spot in the infield for him to get everyday at-bats, he could be up in June or July. If he is

VOTES OF CONFIDENCE

Bobby Witt - Double-A

CJ Abrams - Double-A

Riley Greene - Double-A

Austin Martin - Double-A

Jordan Groshans - Double-A

We knew Greene was heading to Double-A, and that has been factored in with his ranking, but it's still worth mentioning in this article, as he's still just 20 years old. The Blue Jays gave Martin and Groshans big votes of confidence with these assignments. Groshans is the long-term answer at third base and Martin will likely end up wherever there's an opening. Spencer Torkelson and Nick Gonzales opened at High-A, so Martin could be the first hitter from that class to reach the majors, which isn't a big surprise, but again, worth noting.

Alek Manoah - Triple-A

This is arguably the most noteworthy level assignment for any minor leaguer. Manoah has never pitched in a full-season league and will jump all the way to the highest level of the minors after a dominant spring training. He is currently my No. 2 ranked pitching prospect for dynasty leagues and could be the No. 1 pitcher on the big update in a couple weeks. If he handles this aggressive assignment well, he could make more starts in the majors than in the minors this season.

Max Meyer - Double-A

This is particularly noteworthy because the other top healthy college starters from the 2020 draft (Asa Lacy, Cade Cavalli, Emerson Hancock, Tanner Burns, Jared Shuster, etc...) were assigned to High-A. Reid Detmers was sent to Double-A as well, but Detmers is less of a surprise, considering he was seen as more of a finished product. Meyer could make his MLB debut this summer if he is dominant, but at the very least, he sets up to be a big part of the 2022 rotation.

Matt Allan - High-A

Quinn Priester - High-A

Two of the best young pitching prospects in the game, Allan and Priester are making their full-season debuts above Low-A as 20-year-olds. They have the stuff to make these assignments seem prescient, and it wouldn't surprise me if both pitchers spend more time at Double-A than High-A this season.

Travis Swaggerty - Triple-A

This is one could be relevant in redraft leagues this summer, as Swaggerty is now one step away from the majors and the Pirates have a desperate need for production in the outfield next to Bryan Reynolds. Josh Lowe has a similar profile, but he was a lock to open at Triple-A.

Luisangel Acuna - Low-A

It's become fashionable to hate on Acuna as a player who is overhyped because of his last name, but just because he's extremely different from his big brother doesn't mean he's a bad prospect. The Rangers obviously agree, as this is the same assignment as the undisputed studs from the 2018 J-2 class — Marco Luciano, Noelvi Marte, Luis Matos, Orelvis Martinez and Francisco Alvarez.

Brayan Rocchio - High-A

Aaron Bracho - High-A

Angel Martinez - Low-A

Bo Naylor - Double-A

Gabriel Arias - Triple-A

Cleveland had no real choice but to be aggressive with these infielders, particularly the first three. The major strength of this farm system is the lower-level infielders. The quantity of guys who need at-bats in the AZL pushes Martinez to Low-A, the quantity of guys at Low-A pushes Rocchio and Bracho to High-A. The Naylor assignment is pretty telling, and if he hits the ground running against Double-A pitching, he could be the rare catcher who shoots up inside the top 100. With Arias, this is kind of a sink or swim assignment, as he is on the 40-man roster but is not a lock to be a part of this team's long-term future. These players are all talented, and if they produce with these assignments, it will carry a little more weight than if they had been assigned a level lower.

Masyn Winn - Low-A

Jake Vogel - Low-A

Jordan Walker - Low-A

Evan Carter - Low-A

Four toolsy prep hitters from the 2020 draft class, these guys aren't thought of as elite, proven talents from that class in the same way that Pete Crow-Armstrong, Zac Veen, Ed Howard and Austin Hendrick are, so getting that same full-season assignment is a strong vote of confidence from their teams. St. Louis's lack of quality depth in the system may have led the front office to push these guys so that they can start evaluating them in games a month earlier. If they struggle mightily, they could be optioned to extended spring training before the rookie leagues open. In Winn's case, the two-way aspect may have played a role, as he needs as many developmental reps as possible.

Francisco Morales - Double-A

Morales is on the 40-man, so the Phillies want to give him a big test to see if the changeup and command have improved enough for him to project as a starter. If he struggles in that role, he could be transitioned into a relief role and help the big-league team out of the bullpen before being stretched out again next spring.

Keoni Cavaco - Low-A

Benyamin Bailey - Low-A

Alex De Jesus - Low-A

Alexander Mojica - Low-A

Sergio Campana - Low-A

Brayan Buelvas - Low-A

Maikol Escotto - Low-A

Yohendrick Pinango - Low-A

Bryan Ramos - Low-A

Jose De La Cruz - Low-A

These hitters are all 18-19 and most haven't had any success stateside. Cavaco's age and draft pedigree align with this assignment, but his pro debut was so bad that it's still noteworthy that Minnesota thinks he has improved enough over the last 18 months to handle it. Mojica, Buelvas, Escotto and Pinango are 18 and the rest are 19. I'm considering 19-20 as age-appropriate for Low-A in this weird minor-league season after the long layoff, so the 18-19-year-olds who perform against full-season pitching will be given a bump.

Matthew Liberatore - Triple-A

The Cardinals are obviously higher on Liberatore than I am. They have a strong track record of developing pitching, but I worry about how hittable his fastball will be in the majors. This is a big test for a 21-year-old hurler — if he pitches well, he'll probably debut this summer, but I could also see him struggling mightily against the seasoned minor-league mashers that typically populate Triple-A rosters.

Hunter Greene - Double-A

Greene dominated in his first start of the year, which will always be possible with a 101-102 mph fastball as long as he's throwing enough strikes against minor-league hitters. That said, I'd be tempted to sell high after that outing. There are still just so many ways this could go wrong when factoring in his durability, command and offspeed pitches.

Ji-wan Bae - Double-A

Davis Wendzel - Double-A

These two infielders are seeing a big jump in competition this year compared to what they saw in 2019. Pittsburgh seemed to give everyone an aggressive assignment, while it seems Texas just really likes Wendzel, who was old for his class in 2019 and is already 23 but is still making his full-season debut this year at Double-A.

Colin Barber - High-A

Pedro Martinez - High-A

Both of these hitters could have easily been assigned to Low-A, but the assignments to High-A as 20-year-olds tell us that their teams think they are up for the challenge. It will always be tough for a player like Martinez to break through as an everyday player with Tampa Bay, given the talent ahead of him in this system, but Barber is arguably already Houston's top position player prospect, so the decks are clear for him to ascend to everyday work in a couple years.

SOFT LANDING SPOTS

Julio Rodriguez - High-A

There are two ways to read this one. Either the Marines sent Rodriguez to Everett since it's so close to Tacoma/Seattle and they plan to bump Rodriguez up to Tacoma once Jarred Kelenic gets the call this month, or they are run by horrible people who plan to make it impossible for Rodriguez to force the issue this year. Rodriguez will be the best hitter at High-A for as long as he is there.

Spencer Torkelson - High-A

Adley Rutschman - Double-A

JJ Bleday - Double-A

Heliot Ramos - Double-A

None of these assignments are surprising, per say, but hopefully they will be informative for those who thought they might see any of these players in the majors early this season. Torkelson is being given a very soft landing spot, so the pressure will be on for him to rake against High-A pitching as a 21-year-old. As I've said before, Riley Greene, who was assigned to Double-A, could beat Torkelson to the majors and they are a lot closer as prospects than some might realize from a value standpoint. For context, Andrew Vaughn is 16 months older than Tork. Rutschman isn't the last Oriole to show up with a conservative assignment, and I think it's possible we don't see him until late in the year, and maybe not until 2022. Bleday and Ramos could force their way to the majors in the second half, but their teams have enough big-league outfield depth that they won't be needed anytime soon.

George Kirby - High-A

A lot of what I said about Rodriguez applies to Kirby. Seattle may just not want to send any of its good prospects to Arkansas. Regardless, I think an early 2022 debut for Kirby seems most likely.

Simeon Woods Richardson - Double-A

This one caught me a little by surprise. It may have just been a numbers game, in terms of starting spots available at Triple-A, but it certainly seems like Manoah will beat Woods Richardson to the show, despite SWR having significantly more experience as a pro pitcher.

Grayson Rodriguez - High-A

DL Hall - Double-A

Jackson Rutledge - High-A

Luis Medina - High-A

From a talent standpoint, I think all four of these pitchers should have been assigned a level higher, but I understand the thinking behind playing it safe and giving them soft landing spots where they can shove for a few weeks and get into a groove before really getting tested.

Jordyn Adams - High-A

Heriberto Hernandez - Low-A

Heston Kjerstad - Low-A

Will Wilson - High-A

Kameron Misner - High-A

Miguel Vargas - High-A

Jordan Nwogu - Low-A

Alexander Canario - Low-A

Bryson Stott - High-A

Aaron Sabato - Low-A

Adam Hall - High-A

It's not necessarily an indictment on these players that they were assigned to these levels, but the pressure will be on for them to perform. There's no reason they all shouldn't put up big numbers with these cushy assignments and force a promotion after 150-200 plate appearances. Hernandez is a bit of an exception, as the Rays are notoriously slow to promote prospects and he's working on his defense behind the plate. The hope was that he might be fast-tracked as a corner outfielder or designated hitter. Obviously Kjerstad is getting a soft landing spot after all the time he has missed, but he is still at least one level behind his contemporaries from last year's class. Canario is on the 40-man roster, so this is a bit of an indictment of his hit tool, as the Giants would have clearly sent him to High-A if they thought he could handle it. It's also not a great look for Stott to still be in A-ball, as he is 23 and was thought to be a low-ceiling/high-floor type.

Misael Urbina - Extended Spring Training

Diego Cartaya - Extended Spring Training

Osleivis Basabe - Extended Spring Training

Julio Carreras - Extended Spring Training

It's possible that Urbina/Cartaya/Carreras are dealing with some sort of injury or visa issue I'm not aware of, but if they are healthy and active, it's noteworthy that they weren't given full-season assignments. The rest of the top J-2 signees from 2018 are in Low-A, so Urbina and Cartaya are a bit behind the curve. With Basabe, this is probably just a classic Rays slow-and-low thing. Carreras is a major head scratcher, as he is 21 and played in the Pioneer League in 2019.

Seth Johnson - Low-A

JJ Goss - Extended Spring Training

Nick Swiney - Low-A

Cole Wilcox - Low-A

All of these pitchers would have probably been assigned one level higher had they been in different orgs., but the Rays and Giants are two of the more conservative teams with these assignments.