Farm Futures: Dynasty Auction Values

The RotoWire Dynasty Rankings are fully updated!

A few notes on the rankings:

• These are loosely intended for OBP dynasty leagues where really good setup men have value and 20-30 catchers are started, but they should be applicable across formats.
• Once we get outside the top 300 or so, beauty is really in the eye of the beholder, and league format and team needs will greatly dictate how you should be valuing the final 200-250 players. 
• I included 105 prospects (just over 20 percent of the list), but there's a tier of prospects on the recently updated top 400 that stretches from inside the top 100 to roughly 146, so there were dozens of prospects I omitted who can reasonably be considered top 500 dynasty assets

Dynasty Auction Values

I was fortunate to participate in a unique startup dynasty auction/draft with some friends and fellow dynasty enthusiasts that took place over the past few weeks and helped me to battle test my rankings quite a bit before publishing them. Before I share the results of this startup dynasty auction + snake draft, here are the league specifics:

• 15 teams
• 5x5 roto w/ OBP, SVH3 (saves are three times as valuable as holds), QA3 (a variation of quality start where the pitcher needs to pitch 5+ innings)
• 1 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 4 OF, 2 UT, 5 SP, 2 RP, 2 P, 8-man bench, unlimited IL, 25 minor-league spots (100+ IP, 260+ AB needed to graduate)
• Daily lineups
• 15-games to qualify at offensive positions

Auction Setup: Each team got a $200 auction budget ($0 bids allowed) to fill 10 roster spots, and then we conducted a snake draft to fill the final 45 roster spots, using the reverse order of most expensive player bought in the auction as the draft order.

There are some prices that only make sense when considering auction dynamics, such as the Bobby Witt ($100) and Elly De La Cruz ($100) prices, where the same team bought both players and then filled out their final eight auction slots with $0 buys. We won't know for sure what Witt or De La Cruz would have gone for if that team hadn't implemented that strategy, as they jumped both players up to $100. Conversely, players like Corbin Carroll ($61) and Jackson Chourio ($62) were bought early and may have gone for more money had they been auctioned later, while Julio Rodriguez ($70) would have possibly been cheaper if he'd been auctioned early. However, on the whole, I think you could use these auction prices as effectively as any dynasty top 150 produced by one ranker. 

Here are the auction results in descending order by price:

The snake draft that followed:

My Roster

Catcher

William Contreras, MIL

I was the only team to select just one catcher, and there was one team that rostered five catchers and four teams that rostered four catchers. Again, it's a 15-team, one-catcher league, and guys like Danny Jansen, Jonah Heim, Miguel Amaya and Henry Davis are available on waivers, and I expect some big-league catchers who were drafted as second catchers will eventually get dropped during the season. 

Part of the appeal of Contreras is that he's a set it and forget it top-four catcher in his early prime and I can use the extra roster spots I didn't use on second or third catchers on players at other positions.

Corner Infield

Manny Machado, 3B, SD

Mark Vientos, 3B, NYM

Yandy Diaz, 1B, TB

Pavin Smith, 1B/OF, ARI

Jose Tena, 3B, WSH

Vientos is my long-term first baseman and Diaz is my short-term first baseman while I hope Machado has a couple more prime years left in the tank. Smith should be a nice piece in daily leagues as he was excellent against right-handed pitching down the stretch last year and should have a strong side platoon job all year. Tena can be stashed in my minors until he gets another 68 at-bats, at which point hopefully I'll feel good about holding him on my bench or dropping him. He's got a chance to take the third base job and run with it — literally, as he could steal double-digit bases.

Middle Infield

Ketel Marte, 2B, ARI

Masyn Winn, SS, STL

Brayan Rocchio, SS, CLE

Richie Palacios, 2B/OF, TB

I don't have much depth here, but I'm hoping to get a couple more prime years out of Marte while Winn is entering his prime, and then I'm hoping that the Rocchio/Palacios combo at middle infield can help me with stolen bases without hurting my OBP. I'll probably need to either acquire another middle infielder via trade or get help from my farm system in the coming years.

Outfield

Michael Harris, ATL

Lawrence Butler, ATH

Heliot Ramos, SF

Jesus Sanchez, MIA

Andy Pages, LAD

MJ Melendez, KC

Harris, Butler and Ramos were three outfielders I knew I wanted before we started the auction, and Pages was a priority target during the snake draft. The idea with Harris and Butler is that they're beginning their primes and they have high ceilings and high floors — obviously I'm fully in on Butler being closer to the player he rounded into last season rather than the player he was at the beginning of the season. Ramos doesn't have much stolen-base potential, but I think he's entering his prime as a four-category outfielder who could develop 30-homer power. Sanchez is now a borderline five-category outfielder and I don't think we've seen his best season as a power hitter. He wasn't a target per say, but I liked the price and he was one of the last in a tier of outfielders. Pages is an obvious breakout candidate if we just look at the skills, but the market is unsure about his playing time, which to me represents a buying opportunity, especially in dynasty. Melendez has changed his swing this offseason and should play against righties early in the year regardless. He still hits the ball really hard and could breakout, and at worst he's a fine piece in daily leagues while he's got the strong side of a platoon.

Starters

Blake Snell, LAD

Carlos Rodon, NYY

Zach Eflin, BAL

Robbie Ray, SF

Kyle Bradish, BAL

Shane Bieber, CLE

Frankie Montas, NYM

Landon Knack, LAD

Michael McGreevy, STL

Tyler Wells, BAL

The thing that probably stands out is that I took more injured big-league pitchers than any other team, but in the case of Bradish, Bieber, Wells and Robert Stephenson, who I'll cover in the Reliever section, they're all recovering from standard first-time surgeries that we know the recovery rates of and estimated time of return. I'd guess that one of the four doesn't return to form post surgery, but it's possible all four return to their prior levels, and they came at steep discounts due to the fact they won't provide any value over the first few months. In Snell, Rodon, Eflin, Ray and Montas, I believe I have five starters I'll want to use in the majority of their starts, and Bradish and Bieber will join that group when healthy. With Knack, McGreevy and Wells, I'm hoping they'll be good ratio sources as streamers in good matchups, and they could potentially ascend beyond just streamers.

Relievers

Josh Hader, HOU

Griffin Jax, MIN

Trevor Megill, MIL

Robert Stephenson, LAA

Nate Pearson, CHC

Clayton Beeter, NYY

Marc Church, TEX

Troy Taylor, SEA

Hader, Jax and Megill are the building blocks for ratios and saves, while Pearson and Beeter could be useful strikeout sources since they should make some multi-inning appearances that I might be able to stream into my lineup. Stephenson (once he returns midseason) could get saves if Ben Joyce gets injured, and Church has a chance to ascend to setup or closing duty in Texas over the next couple years. I took Taylor before his lat strain was reported, but he's got a chance to be a good setup man in a year or two.

Pitching Flyers

Hayden Birdsong, SF

Ben Brown, CHC

Tylor Megill, NYM

Justin Wrobleski, LAD

Michael Soroka, WSH

Yoniel Curet, TB

Brandyn Garcia, SEA

I'm not sure which of these pitchers will make it as starters and which ones will end up relievers, but they all have the stuff to be impactful in either role. Birdsong and Brown are the two I used top-400 picks on, as they're going to be in the mix for starts early in the year if they throw enough strikes and they both have extremely high ceilings as starters. I don't like paying full price for really good pitching prospects, such as the auction buys of Roki Sasaki ($31), Andrew Painter ($20), Jackson Jobe ($9), Bubba Chandler ($6) and Noah Schultz ($2), and if you take enough shots on cheap pitchers with good characteristics, you should still be able to hit on the young arms you need. With relievers having significant value in this league, it's not the end of the world if any of these guys get pushed to relief, and that's honestly what I'm hoping happens with a guy like Soroka. He was lights out as a reliever last year and was once one of my favorite young starting pitchers in baseball, and now the Nationals are planning on using him as a starter, but he'd probably be more valuable to me if they scrap that plan and throw him in the bullpen. 

Upper-Level Hitting Prospects

Sebastian Walcott, SS/3B/OF, TEX

Jac Caglianone, 1B, KC

Cam Collier, 3B/1B, CIN

Jordan Beck, OF, COL

Sal Stewart, 2B/3B, CIN

Ryan Clifford, 1B, NYM

Max Muncy, 3B/SS, ATH

Johnathan Rodriguez, OF, CLE

Jonatan Clase, OF, TOR

Matthew Lugo, OF, LAA

As was the case for me in a prospect mock draft earlier this offseason, I didn't value the top speedsters (with the exception of Walcott) as much as the market, so I ended up with a bunch of slugging prospects I hope develop into four-category contributors like Caglianone, Collier, Stewart, Clifford and Rodriguez. I'm not sure where Walcott ends up playing when he debuts either in late-2025 or 2026, so he's not someone I planned around at a specific position. He's my No. 1 prospect, but 13 prospects went for more money in the auction, so I'm clearly out on a bit of an island with that valuation. He's the only prospect I can actually envision being a first-round fantasy pick someday, with the exception of Jesus Made (MIL), who has never played an official game in the United States. Beck, Muncy, Rodriguez, Clase and Lugo should all be options for me to cycle into my big-league lineup early in the season, which was an important type of prospect for me to get given that I used four bench spots on injured pitchers in the initial snake draft. 

Far Off Prospects

Sammy Stafura, SS, CIN

Yolfran Castillo, SS, TEX

Tai Peete, OF, SEA

Levi Sterling, RHP, PIT

Shortstop prospects were flying off the board, but I was able to get a couple I like in Stafura and Castillo who could really improve their stock this year if they can get to more game power. Peete, a former shortstop who is now set to develop as a center fielder, has impact speed on the bases and a high offensive ceiling with an assignment to hitter-friendly Everett on tap for 2025. Sterling isn't my top-ranked prep arm from the 2024 draft class, but he's my favorite prep arm in the class relative to the market — I got him nine rounds after Ryan Sloan (SEA) and five rounds after Cam Caminiti (ATL).

Auction Targets Missed: Wyatt Langford ($63), Jordan Westburg ($26) and Jackson Holliday ($20) were the three players I thought I might buy in the auction that I didn't end up with. I underestimated how much Langford and Westburg would go for, and I pivoted from Westburg/Holliday when I deduced that Ketel Marte might be available in that same price range later. 

My Biggest Weakness: Speed. If everything goes according to plan, steals will be my weakest category in the first year of the league. In addition to missing on Langford and Holliday in the auction, Parker Meadows, Luis Rengifo and Josh Lowe were great values where they went in the snake draft and were players I might have ended up with either early in the snake draft or in the auction if I'd missed out on other players. However, I knew I needed to stick to my plan and hammer starting pitching early in the snake draft portion if I wanted to contend in year one, which I do.

My Least Favorite Pick: Nate Pearson at pick 422. This was just a bad process pick. I rushed it and didn't even feel good about it when I made the pick. I like the upside for what he is but this was after the Ryan Pressly trade and I don't think Pearson is notably better than 15-20 relievers who went after him. Even Seth Halvorsen of the Rockies who went five rounds later is probably a better bet than Pearson in the SVH3 category with similar upside/downside in strikeouts/ratios.