This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
If you like good pitching, you're going to love Tuesday's slate. There are a ton of viable options to build around, mostly at higher price points, which should leave a very low-owned cheap option or two for the more bargain-conscious lineup builder.
As bats go, there should be a lot of interest in stacks and combos from these matchups:
- Dodgers at Rangers (Ariel Jurado)
- Red Sox vs. Marlins (Jose Urena)
- Yankees vs. White Sox (James Shields)
- Brewers at Reds (both sides against Junior Guerra & Anthony DeSclafani)
- Blue Jays at Orioles (Josh Rogers)
I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
Remember, a strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
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Pitcher
Preferred Cash Play: Carlos Carrasco, CLE vs. MIN ($10,000)
Also Consider: Charlie Morton, HOU vs. OAK ($8,900), Madison Bumgarner, SF vs. ARI ($9,200)
Preferred Tournament Play: Jack Flaherty, STL vs. PIT ($9,600)
Also Consider: Walker Buehler, LAD at TEX ($9,500), Cole Hamels, CHC vs. NYM ($9,400), Max Scherzer, WAS @ PHI ($12,000), Jacob deGrom, NYM at CHC ($11,800), Aaron Nola, PHI vs. WAS ($11,200), Brian Johnson, BOS vs. MIA ($5,900)
In a scheduling miracle, Carrasco pitches against the Twins every Tuesday and Friday. I'm not sure how it happens, but it seems like I'm writing about him facing Minnesota on a weekly basis this season. A meltdown in Fenway last time out (six runs -- five earned in 3.2 IP) might scare some owners away, but that start snapped a stretch of six straight outings in which he logged at least six innings and posted at least six strikeouts. At home, and as a -235 favorite on the moneyline, Carrasco is one of the most likely starters to pick up a win Tuesday night.
Like Carrasco, Morton enters Tuesday's matchup as a heavy favorite (-200), as Vegas seems content to believe that the Astros' healthy lineup is going to overwhelm A's starter Edwin Jackson. Brett Anderson was knocked around the second time through the order by the Houston bats Monday, and it's reasonable to expect the Astros to provide ample run support with the likes of George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa all back in the fold after second-half DL stint. Morton is still flashing tournament-winning upside on occasion, which makes him viable in all formats, but the relatively low price might drive up the ownership rate despite a matchup against an Oakland offense that leads MLB with a 119 wRC+ over the last 30 days. In short, Morton's situation as a pitcher skilled enough to win a tournament, but priced to be used in a cash-game scenario in spite of a tough matchup.
Bumgarner delivered a vintage performance against the Mets in his last turn, fanning eight and allowing just one run on five hits over eight innings in a winning effort, in what was essentially his second-best start of 2018. He's faced the D-backs twice this season, turning in passable performances, but nothing to write home about in those outings -- including his least productive start of the season at home. Despite facing a team making a run at the NL West crown, Bumgarner at home against Clay Buchholz is a nice option since some of the most heavily favored teams (Red Sox and Yankees) have lower-end starters (Brian Johnson, and Lance Lynn, respectively) taking the ball.
Flaherty looks like the Cards' ace right now, having reeled off a stretch with at least seven strikeouts in each of his last seven starts. During that span, he's allowed more than three runs runs just once, and he'll carry a four-start quality start streak into Tuesday's matchup. Earlier this season, the Pirates were tempering strikeouts enough to be somewhat careful about using starters against them. Over the last 30 days, the Pirates have an 85 wRC+ (tied for 25th in MLB) with a 22.1% K%.
Buehler might slip under the radar somewhat because this pitching slate is loaded, and because he's in a matchup that features an over/under total of 11. Most of the damage should come against Rangers starter Ariel Jurado, which will likely make the Dodgers the most stacked team of the night. Like Flaherty, Buehler is dialed in recently, having posted a 38:9 K:BB with four earned runs allowed over his last five starts (32.1 IP).
Scherzer and Nola square off again Tuesday, after Scherzer took the loss in the same matchup Thursday thanks to a two-run homer from Odubel Herrera. Other than four walks, the homer was the only blemish for Scherzer, while Nola fired eight scoreless innings with nine strikeouts to get the win. All of the same concerns apply for both -- they lower each other's win probability -- but the makeup of this slate paired with the circumstances of facing each other should keep the ownership rates reasonable for those who want to use either of them in tournaments.
The Mets have been dreadful against left-handed pitching all season, and Hamels has looked like a new man since getting acquired by the Cubs in July, posting a 0.79 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in five starts with his new club. The price here is very reasonable, in large part, because the win probability comes down a lot with Jacob deGrom getting the start for the Mets.
Johnson faces a Marlins offense with a league-worst 67 wRC+ over the last 30 days. The Red Sox are heavy favorites, but the concern here is that Johnson has completed six innings on just one occasion this season in 10 starts. He's the ultra-cheap tournament consideration of the day for the low-entry fee, big-field GPP lineup builder seeking a high-risk, high-reward option that opens up the highest number of big bats.
Catcher/First Base
Justin Smoak, TOR at BAL ($3,200) -- With so much attention being paid to Smoak's red-hot teammate Kendrys Morales (now $4,200), there is a good chance that Smoak will be overlooked as the Jays draw a matchup against rookie lefty Josh Rogers. Rogers is a back-end starter at best in the long run, with a fastball that tops out in the low-90s, and mostly average secondary offerings. Smoak has a .288/.368/.468 line against southpaws since the start of last season, and he should have a prominent place in the Toronto lineup.
If he gets a chance to start through the Cards' lineup shuffling, Matt Adams at $2,700 against Ivan Nova is a steal. Adams has started just one game since returning to St. Louis last week, but he hit cleanup in that start, and Nova's ongoing struggles to keep the ball in the park against left-handed hitters should be exploited wherever possible.
Second Base
Whit Merrifield, KC vs. DET ($3,600) -- Weather might be an issue in Kansas City on Tuesday night, so be sure to keep an eye on conditions closer to lineup lock. Since the start of last season, Merrifield is hitting .316/.364/.511 against lefties, and not surprisingly, Boyd's weaker splits come against right-handed hitters (.329 wOBA, 1.34 HR/9 since the start of 2018). If the rain holds off, hot and humid conditions in Kansas City will give both offenses a boost, and Merrifield's speed and power combination gives him plenty of ways to make value atop the Royals' lineup.
For tournaments, consider Ozzie Albies as an alternative now that his price has fallen to $3,400.
Third Base
Eugenio Suarez, CIN vs. MIL ($3,700) -- Suarez remains underpriced. He faces Junior Guerra and the Brewers at home in a game that boasts a 9.5 over/under total. The third baseman on the other side of this matchup (Mike Moustakas) is also in play against Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani, whose .358 wOBA and 1.99 HR/9 allowed to left-handed hitters since the start of 2016 are among the worst splits on the board Tuesday.
Shortstop
Jean Segura, SEA at SD ($3,400) -- Rookie Jacob Nix is starting for San Diego, leaving Segura with a righty-righty matchup in a pitcher-friendly environment. The appeal here comes from Nix's lack of experience, and Segura's steady (albeit unspectacular) splits against righties (.302/.337/.427). The M's-Padres matchup at Petco has a surprisingly high 8.5 over/under total thanks to the presence of Nix and Felix Hernandez as the starting pitcher matchup.
At a similar price point, I remain interested in Paul DeJong ($3,200) if he's in the fifth spot or higher in the St. Louis lineup against Ivan Nova and the Pirates.
Outfield
David Dahl, COL at LAA ($2,600) -- The Rockies are on the road facing Noe Ramirez and the Angels' bullpen, and the extremely low price on Dahl is enough to take the chance in tournaments even if he ends up in the bottom third of the order (he's hit second, third, sixth, seventh and eighth over the last 10 days). In limited time with Colorado over the last two seasons, he's looked the part of a future high-end run producer, putting together a .323/.389/.583 line against right-handed pitching.
Eric Thames, MIL at CIN ($3,100) -- Thames' dominance against the Reds since returning to the big leagues last season is well documented. He's become a part-time player, even against righties, since the Brewers' bolstered their lineup at the non-waiver trade deadline at the end of July. As a result, check his lineup status before deploying him, but the potential payoff could be huge as he draws one of the worst starters on the slate against left-handed starters with Anthony DeSclafani taking the ball for Cincinnati. If Thames doesn't start Tuesday, I'll look to squeeze an extra $500 from my lineup elsewhere to use Lorenzo Cain instead.
Cody Bellinger, LAD at TEX ($3,900) -- As noted above, the Dodgers-Rangers matchup features an 11.0 over/under total, which is the result of Ariel Jurado taking the ball for Texas. Hot, humid conditions have been the norm in Arlington all summer (shocker, right?) which has provided a steady bump to bats over the last two-plus months. Although he's taken a step back from his massive rookie season, Belligner's .278/.360/.507 line against righties this season includes 15 of his 20 homers. He'll be popular, like most of the Dodgers' bats in this matchup, but Bellinger is the play I like the most of the bunch since he's slightly cheaper than Manny Machado ($4,300).
