This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
After Friday night's loaded 13-game slate, the Saturday main contest is limited to just five evening matchups. Slimming the player pool that immensely changes strategy, where winning cash lineups likely have a ton of similarities, but GPPs are largely taking differentiating dart throws.
I had some success with yesterday's column, finishing 19th in a single-entry GPP. Lets see if we can find the right mix again here.
Pitching
It's very difficult to fade top-priced Noah Syndergaard ($10,200) against light-hitting, easily-whiffing Baltimore, but Syndergaard has only five Ks in 11.1 innings. Ian Anderson ($9,700) is coming off of a dominant outing against San Diego, but Miami had his number last year, sitting on his change-up in route to 17 hits, 11 walks and nine runs across 12.1 frames. As such, I'm surprisingly landing on Matt Brash ($8,600) as my preferred arm Saturday. The Royals don't strike out (18.9 percent) but they don't hit either (.271 wOBA, .118 ISO).
Elieser Hernandez ($7,700) sort of sits in a tier to himself. He's put up 40 and 20 FanDuel points (FDP) in two starts, and that high/low is right on point with a matchup with Atlanta, who has scored 15 runs in their eight losses entering Friday, but is capable of going off at any point. Take any of the three names above for cash purposes, but Hernandez can work for GPPs.
Spenser Watkins ($5,900) is pitching above his class, but in GPP situations, he's going to offer some budget friendliness. The Angels are fifth in the league with a .353 wOBA against righties, but they also fan at a 25.5 percent mark. That gives Watkins a path to a 3x floor.
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Top Targets
Manny Machado ($4,200) is dialed in, collecting 14 hits in his last eight games, three homers, seven RBI and nine runs included, leading to a season tally that's obscenely untargetable (wOBA north of .800). But spread it out over last year, too, and we've still got positive splits that include a .385 wOBA and .224 ISO.
You should feel great about the thought process of stacking Mariners against Kris Bubic, but that's really all it is, a thought. The reality is the Mariners' lineup stinks sans Ty France ($3,800), whose name recognition will be largely ignored. He has a team-leading .380 wOBA, 149 wRC+ and only 15.6 percent K rate against lefties.
Value Bats
Brandon Nimmo ($3,700) is challenging to label. The tag is high, so he's not a value as it sits toward your budget. But he's going to be overlooked, which could make him a GPP winning pick. Nimmo has a .377 wOBA and 144 wRC+ against opposite-handed arms since the start of last year. His adversary, Humberto Castellanos, is going to be targeted heavily by managers looking toward bigger Met names.
BvP guys will like Marcell Ozuna's ($3,200) 5-of-9, 1.111 OPS against Hernandez, but the Marlins' starter's struggles have come mainly against lefties against whom he's allowing a .437 wOBA and .900 OPS. This could be a spot for Eddie Rosario ($2,200) to finally get going. He's struggling immensely but has quietly reached base in four straight. He only has two runs to show for that, but it's a favorable spot nonetheless.
With minimal standout values, managers can take a look at Jorge Alfaro ($2,000) and/or Edwin Rios ($2,000), both of whom offer power upside if slotted into their team's lineups, which is no guarantee. Alfaro has the more favorable spot against lefty Tyler Anderson.
Stack to Consider
Diamondbacks vs. Mets (Trevor Williams): Ketel Marte ($2,700), Seth Beer ($2,600), Cooper Hummel ($2,500)
To take down a GPP on this small slate, we have to get a little weird, and stacking Diamondbacks is about as weird as it gets. I'd look for Mets, Angels, Padres and possibly Mariners stacks to be more popular. But this differentiator offers some nice bargains against what appears to be a bullpen game for the Mets. Marte is in a funk, but he's a far better player than this reduced price, which is the highest amongst his teammates but lower than seven Mets. He gives us a potential table setter with some speed upside. Beer is our power threat, owning a .490 wOBA, 217 wRC+ and .241 ISO against righties. Hummel is a wildcard. He's got a .407 wOBA, 164 wRC+ and .267 ISO across just 21 plate appearances but is batting only .161. He's hit leadoff for consecutive games now, and delivered a combined 37.9 FDP. That seems worth the minimal risk.
