This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A slightly larger than normal seven-game slate awaits Saturday evening. The pitching slate appears highly volatile and lacking a clear favorite choice, which should directly lead to ample offensive choices. Choosing carefully on the bump and just getting some mid-tier production appears to be this evening's path to success.
Pitching
Lance Lynn, CWS at KAN ($10,400): Lynn and Clayton Kershaw ($11,000) are the only five-digit-priced arms, and neither sets up perfectly. Kershaw faces a Angels lineup that doesn't strike out much against lefties (20.0 percent), so I'll take Lynn at a slight discount. He fanned 11 in a complete game shutout of the Royals earlier, and while 70 FanDuel points (FDP) probably isn't happening again, the White Sox are solid favorites at (-168), and the nine run total is high due to Lynn's adversary. More on him below.
Garrett Richards, BOS at BAL ($7,400): While I loathe the price paired with a talent as marginal as Richards, he's going to be heavily targeted on a slate void of clear targets. Baltimore is woeful offensively, ranking last in the league with a .275 wOBA against righties, adding a 78 wRC+, .141 ISO and 25.4 percent strikeout rate. Richards has lasted more than five innings just once, but has struck out 17 in his last 12 innings and figures to get ample run support. He'll need that early to notch a win if a quality start isn't possible.
Merrill Kelly, ARI at NYM ($6,400): This is an awfully difficult slate to navigate on the mound, with less than perfect options at all levels of pricing tiers. Kelly is in good form, having posted 69 total FDP in his last two outings (11Ks, three runs across 11.2 innings), and the Mets have only a .115 ISO against righties, hopefully minimizing damage at worst. He should also see good run support against Joey Lucchesi and his 10.13 ERA.
Top Targets
Bryce Harper, PHI at ATL ($4,200): Harper wasn't heavily involved in pummeling the Braves' arm last night, so I expect a rebound here. He's carrying a .414 wOBA and .296 ISO against lefties since the start of last year, and Ian Anderson has been far more vulnerable to opposite-handed bats (.358 wOBA vs. .246). Anderson also isn't efficient, and the Braves' bullpen is bad and taxed after last night. Harper hasn't gone yard in five games and is due.
Carson Kelly, ARI at NYM ($3,800): We noted Lucchesi's struggles above, so it makes sense to have at least some piece of the Diamondbacks' offense. He's allowing a .437 wOBA and 1.054 OPS to righties. I still struggle paying this number for a catcher, but Kelly has been terrific, leading Arizona regulars with a .402 wOBA against southpaws.
Xander Bogaerts, BOS vs. BAL ($3,600): Baltimore hasn't announced a starting pitcher, and it doesn't matter. Bogaerts is white hot, and his price should be at least $400 more in any slate, let alone one in a smaller player pool. He'll see huge usage, but how can you fade a guy who has posted six straight double-digit FDP outings? No advanced stats needed here, just take the free square.
Value Bats
Marcell Ozuna, ATL vs. PHI ($3,500): With two more hits Friday, Ozuna has tallied multiple knocks in three of his last seven, failing to record a hit in just one of his last 10 contests. Phillies' starter Vince Velasquez is getting pelted to the tune of a .477 wOBA against righties, but the Braves' lineup doesn't set up for a traditional stack. This game has the highest total on the slate, so pairing Ozuna's power upside with the stability of Harper above makes a decent core.
Salvador Perez, KC vs. CWS ($3,100): Perez leads the Royals with a .421 wOBA, 176 wRC+ and .284 ISO to date against righties. He's also a cool 5-of-13 with two homers against White Sox starter Lance Lynn. He looks great as a stand alone option, and a mini-stack paired with Andrew Benintendi ($2,900, .378 wOBA, 5-of-14 against Lynn) looks even better.
Stacks to Consider
Astros vs. Steven Matz: Alex Bregman ($3,600), Jose Altuve ($3,400), Yuli Gurriel ($2,900)
Matz' early season shine has worn off, as he's allowed 14 runs and 20 hits across his last three appearances, spanning 13.2 innings. He's allowing a .345 wOBA and 5.08 xFIP to righties against a .241/.129 to lefties so we can role with an affordable, though not traditional, likely 1-3-5 lineup order stack here. All three bats here are notable lefty mashers, yet none are showing great power this season, so maybe that pushes down usage. Bregman is a regular play against southpaws, and currently boasts a .419 wOBA, 181 wRC+ and moderate 38.9 percent hard hit rate. Altuve comes with a .364 wOBA and Gurriel a .396 wOBA. For the cost, you could do far worse.
Mariners vs. Kohei Arihara: Mitch Haniger ($3,400), Kyle Seager ($2,900), Ty France ($2,900)
I hadn't planned to include three stacking options with such a short slate, but it's hard not to target multiple pieces against Arihara. He's allowed 11 earned runs in his last 4.2 innings and is getting pelted by righties to the tune of a .435 wOBA, 55.3 percent hard hit rate and a 1.044 OPS. This trio is 1-2-3 on the team against righties and likely will slot 1-2-3 in the batting order, giving them ample chances to tee off.
White Sox vs. Daniel Lynch: Jose Abreu ($3,500), Yasmani Grandal ($2,800), Andrew Vaughn ($2,200)
If we trust the stats, even in small sample sizes, this is quite the value stack. Lynch doesn't have discernible numbers regardless of batter handedness, but multiple Sox are in favorable spots against the lefty. Abreu can anchor with a .367 wOBA and .310 ISO since the start of last year, while Grandal bests that at .436/.265 despite a woeful start to 2021. Vaughn just brings further affordability, sporting a very usable .466/.250 split.
