This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Eight games are included in Monday night's slate, which is top-heavy on the mound.
PITCHING
Shane Bieber ($11,300) leads the way against the Angels. He appears as stable as they come, being worth 30-plus FanDuel points in all but two starts since June 25, and has a nine-game floor of 37 FDP. Bieber put up 55 against the Angels earlier in the year, fanning eight against a lineup that whiffs only 19.9 percent of the time.
Jacob deGrom ($10,600) is the only other five-digit arm Monday, facing the Diamondbacks. He's allowed four runs in each of his last two starts but still tallied 57 points in that span. He's at a bit of a discount here, and his floor remains stable. The Diamondbacks have just an 89 wRC+ against righties, further making deGrom safe, and we know what upside he possesses.
Aaron Nola ($9,800) leads a four-pack of arms in the $9K range. He's had the Braves' number this year, fanning 28 over 25.0 innings while allowing 19 hits and 10 runs (3.60 ERA). Zack Greinke ($9,600) follows and isn't in great form, having allowed nine runs in his last two starts (11.2 innings) and has been under 30 FDP in four of his last six. Given the other options available, I'm passing here.
I'm similarly passing on James Paxton ($9,400) who is in great form, allowing four runs in his last three starts (18.2 innings) while fanning 27. It's just a difficult matchup against a Red Sox lineup that hits lefties well. Paxton's K upside makes him a GPP target, however, as he may go overlooked. He's allowed nine runs to Boston in 18.0 innings but struck out 27. Madison Bumgarner ($9,000) rounds this tier out and looks like he'll be popular against Pittsburgh and its woeful 73 wRC+ against lefties.
Jordan Lyles ($8,400) looks like his price is inflated due to a soft matchup with Miami, but he does have three 40+ FDP outings in his last five starts. For $100 more, however, I prefer the Cubs' Kyle Hendricks ($8,500) against San Diego and its 26.3 percent strikeout rate. Both have plus matchups, but Hendricks is simply the better pitcher.
Once you get out of the $8K tier of arms, there's little left, with only six arms priced lower, making paying down a challenge. Mike Foltynewicz ($7,300) is the biggest name and has strikeout potential against the Phillies, but he's been so inefficient he doesn't have innings upside, making a quality start a risk. Cal Quantrill ($6,400) shut out the Cubs over 5.2 innings in late July but has allowed eight runs in each of his last two starts, putting him on GPP radars.
KEY VALUES/CHALK
The slate doesn't have a game with a double-digit run total, so there's no truly obvious place to target with confidence.
I expect the Yankees to be a popular option against Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,300), but I'd tread a little lightly there. He hasn't allowed a run in three of his last four starts, and while he has allowed nine across 17.2 frames against the Yankees this year, he's also fanned 18. Aaron Judge ($4,400) has terrific splits against lefties but is only 2-for-17 in his career against Rodriguez. Gleyber Torres ($3,900) is the opposite, having less than stellar splits against lefties but is 4-for-12 with two bombs against Rodriguez. Some exposure makes sense, but a stack likely doesn't.
In the other dugout, J.D. Martinez ($4,200) is a near must-own whenever a lefty is on the mound, owning a .544 wOBA, 246 wRC+ and .504 ISO against them to date. Mix in that he's 7-for-15 against Paxton, and there's no reason to shy away.
Astros bats are always popular and shouldn't be avoided with Mike Fiers ($7,400) on the mound. Fiers' 3.51 ERA isn't supported by his 5.22 xFIP, though he doesn't have targetable splits as it relates to batter handedness. As such, we'll default to targeting opposite-handed bats like Yordan Alvarez ($4,200), who has a .439 wOBA, 183 wRC+ and .341 ISO against righties, and/or Michael Brantley ($3,900), with his .391, 150 and .227, respectively.
Bryce Harper ($4,100) looks to have standalone value. He was able to pinch hit Sunday but is still slightly discounted and has fared well against Foltynewicz in the past. I can't bring myself to fully stack the Phillies lineup, however, as Folty has been solid against them, allowing 22 runs and 50 hits over 70 innings, fanning 72.
The Giants offense could be a sneaky place to find some value here against Pittsburgh righty Trevor Williams ($8,000). He's allowing a .381 wOBA to lefties, so a few shares of Mike Yastrzemski ($3,000) and/or Brandon Belt ($2,700) to round out a lineup on the cheap may pay off.
STACKS
Mets vs. Diamondbacks (RHP Merrill Kelly)
Pete Alonso (1B - $4,100), Jeff McNeil (OF - $3,400), Robinson Cano (2B - $2,900)
Kelly has been woeful in the season's second half, owning a 6.02 ERA. He's been vulnerable to lefties in that stretch, allowing a .451 wOBA and 1.072 OPS, making McNeil an ideal target atop the Mets lineup. Michael Conforto ($3,400) looks great, too, but we can save some on Cano, who has homered in two of the four games he's played in since returning from injury. No lineup looks bad with Alonso in it, and his .389 wOBA and .304 ISO against righties leads the team, so we won't go all in on lefties here.
Brewers at Marlins (RHP Robert Dugger)
Christian Yelich (OF - $4,700), Yasmani Grandal (C - $3,300), Eric Thames (1B - $2,700)
Dugger hasn't been awful in three big league starts, but he had a 7.59 ERA and 6.05 xFIP at Triple-A, and is bound to regress some, as his 4.00 MLB ERA and 6.15 xFIP further suggest. The beauty of a Brewers stack: As expensive as Yelich is, his teammates aren't. Grandal is hot, having homered in three of four and four of six. We'll target Thames to round this out as a big GPP power stack, with Dugger allowing a .354 wOBA to lefties and only a .279 wOBA to righties.
Indians at Angels (LHP Patrick Sandoval)
Carlos Santana (1B - $3,800), Jordan Luplow (OF - $2,800), Franmil Reyes (OF - $3,300)
This is a little risky, targeting bats that thrive against lefties with Sandoval uncertain to work deep as the Angels limit his pitch count. But there's value to be found if we take that strategy, with Luplow leading the Indians with a .435 wOBA, 172 wRC+ and .352 ISO against southpaws. Reyes goes .407/153/.333 in this spot since joining the Tribe, while Santana is the anchor, going .420/162/.238 while also having positive splits if the Angels go to a right hander out of the pen. Francisco Lindor ($4,200) is obviously in play as a safer option where affordable.
