This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
12 games are featured on Friday's main slate, with a typical 7:05 p.m. EDT first pitch. At first glance, it's not an overly high-scoring slate, with no games featuring totals in double-digits, though only one falls below eight runs. Shohei Ohtani ($11,400) is our top-priced pitcher facing lowly Kansas City. The wind will reportedly be blowing out there, but that's nitpicking. He's a lock for any lineup where you can find enough bargain bats.
Pitching
Aaron Nola, PHI vs. COL ($9,300): There's no shortage of top-priced pitching, with nine arms coming in at $9,000 or more, but I'm happy to target the two with the worst opponents. Nola isn't in great form, stiking out just eight per nine innings, his lowest total since his rookie season. But his 5.91 ERA isn't backed up by a 3.62 xERA and 3.62 FIP. He's seemingly due some progression. The Rockies have only a 23.1 percent K rate against righties, but a 77 wRC+ suggests they aren't going to put up a lot of crooked numbers on Nola.
Tyler Mahle, MIN vs. WAS ($9,000): Mahle looks like he'll be a popular paydown option from the slates top tier as we know we always target Nats bats on the bump. Washington comes in with just a 19.4 percent K rate, but a woeful .264 wOBA and 58 wRC+. Mahle has failed to provide a quality start while making it six innings just once to date. But his strikeouts are up (10.6 per nine) and he too has been a tad unfortunate, as his 4.11 ERA comes with a 3.15 xERA and 3.19 xFIP.
Steven Matz, STL at SEA ($7,800): If you're feeling frisky and willing to take a risk, Matz could be your guy. He's one of three lefties priced below 8k on this slate, all of which face offenses ranking in the botom 22 amongst teams in terms of wOBA against southpaws. Matz isn't a huge strikeout guy, but 9.2 per nine is respectable and could play up against a Mariners lineup that's whiffing at a 25.3 percent rate. This absolutely could blow up in your face; Matz' advanced numbers aren't much better than his bloated 6.48 ERA, so much so that I don't know if the risk meets the potential reward. But the matchup suggests we can get a 3-4x return.
Top Targets
If you're not buying what Matz (and I) are selling above, Julio Rodriguez ($4,000) looks like a nice anchor Friday. He's boasting a .452 wOBA, 201 wRC+ and .375 ISO against lefties to date and quietly has double-digit fantasy points in four of his last six games. Seattle has some wild lefty splits, with production coming from four of their hitters and falling off a cliff immediately thereafter.
Michael Lorenzen's ($6,100) first start left plenty to be desired, but he was a seriveable pitcher a season ago, so going overboard on the Orioles may not be the right call here. Still, Adley Rutschman ($3,900) brings a .419 wOBA, 174 wRC+ and .239 ISO, putting him in a good spot to pop here.
Bargain Bats
JP Sears ($7,100) has done a reasonable job of limiting damage, allowing a .354 wOBA and .853 OPS to righties, but of the nine hits he's surrendered in 46 plate appearances, five have left the yard with two more going for extra bases. Josh Jung ($3,000) has a .397 wOBA, 162 wRC+ and .306 ISO against lefties since the start of last year.
The Yankees' offense isn't firing right now, but that's allowed for some reduced pricing to target against Yusei Kikuchi ($8,300), who's pitching somewhat better, but an arm I enjoy targeting against regulary. Gleyber Torres ($3,200) comes in with a .407 wOBA and 166 wRC+ against lefties thus far, and is 8-for-18 (.444) with a 1.111 OPS off of the Jays' starter. DJ LeMahieu's ($3,200) splits against lefties to date are dreadful, but he's had similar head to head success, going 7-of-19 (.368) with a .928 OPS.
Zach Plesac's ($6,300) numbers are elevated due to a woeful opener against Oakland, and he's been good enough in his last two starts to merit consideration as a punt pitcher against Miami as a result. Conversely, he's allowing a .467 wOBA and 1.086 OPS to lefties to date. That gives me lots of confidence in Luis Arraez's ($3,100) floor that could get an upside boost.
Finally, Washington's Trevor Williams ($6,700) hasn't pitched as poorly as his price would suggest. But with only one Twin bat priced above $3,400 (Joey Gallo), there's ample appeal to the top of the Minnesota line in Carlos Correa ($2,900), Byron Buxton ($2,800) and/or Trevor Laurnach ($2,800).
Stacks to Consider
Angels vs. Taylor Clarke/Ryan Yarbrough: Mike Trout ($4,000), Taylor Ward ($3,200), Anthony Rendon ($3,100)
This likely can't be more obvious, and for GPPs you're going to want to be a tad more creative. But otherwise, the matchup appears too great to fully fade. The Royals will open with Clarke and his 6.75 ERA, who will then be relieved by Ryan Yarbrough for bulk innings, with him carrying a 9.00 ERA and 6.89 xFIP. None of these Angel bats are in great form; Trout is in a power drought with no long balls since Apirl 8, while Rendon is seeking his first of the year. But we'll take a traditional 1-2-4 lineup stack that seems a tad discounted, and be able to get production around/from Ohtani without paying for his bat as well.
Brewers vs. Nick Pivetta: Willy Adames ($3,500), Rowdy Tellez ($3,400), Christian Yelich ($3,100)
Pivetta carries a serviceable 4.50 ERA into Friday, but it comes with a 6.08 xERA and 5.77 FIP, 36.8 percent hard-hit rate and only 5.3 percent soft-hit rate. Always a flyball pitcher, he's giving up 52.6 fly balls so far. Chasing homers isn't usually a sustainable strategy, but balls could be leaving the park here. Adames has a .394 wOBA, 143 wRC+ and .263 ISO against righties, while Tellez goes .392/142/.308. Yelich's splits aren't ideal, but he gives us another top of the order option who is also 4-of-11 (.364) with two homers off of Pivetta, resulting in a 1.429 OPS.
