This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Sunday, June 30
The Pittsburgh Pirates are on the verge of becoming a playoff contender and potential buyer ahead of the trade deadline. They lost the first two games of their three-game series against the Atlanta Braves, losing 2-1 Saturday with their rookie ace Paul Skenes on the hill. He pitched another quality start, completing six innings allowing six hits, one earned run, two walks and recorded nine strikeouts. The run allowed came on a home run hit by leadoff hitter Jarred Kelenic in the first inning. In my article published Friday I detailed Skenes' profile and why I had thought they were a great betting opportunity. Despite the loss, I do recommend considering the Pirates as a solid bet when Skenes toes the rubber.
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Who Had the Best June?
The Mets and Astros had a solid June, and the Astros have returned to AL Wild Card contenders and a team that can win the AL West Division. They have won 16 games in June (second most) while losing only 8 games and trailing the Seattle Mariners by only 4.5 games for the AL West Division lead. The Mets are tied with the Astros and Dodgers with 16 wins in June, but have played fewer games due to their two-game series against the Phillies in London. The Mets will be buyers ahead of the trade deadline, but cannot make a blockbuster trade being handcuffed financially. Nevertheless, a trade with little financial obligation and even a modest improvement to their roster will be enough for them to earn one of the three Wild Card berths.
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The Best Bets for the New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays had a tough June, going 11-15 and their deficit trailing the AL East division-leading Orioles has swelled to 14.5 games. They are six games under .500 and in last place in the division, but are 6.5 games from earning the third of three AL Wild Card berths. A strong start to July ahead of the All-Star break that begins on July 15 would potentially push them into the buyers' market.
On paper, the Blue Jays have largely underperformed this season, but for Sunday's game against the reeling Yankees, they have one of their top starters Kevin Gausman on the hill. The Yankees have won just two of their last 10 games and eight of their last 20 games. They have been outscored 82-51 over their last 10 games and 16 of those runs came in their win in the second game of this series.
Who Are the Starters in this Game?
Gausman gets the call for the Jays, and he is 6-6 in 16 starts with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP, including 84 strikeouts. He is coming off a quality start and 9-4 win over the Red Sox where he completed six innings, allowed three runs and struck out five batters. He is 10-8 in 27 starts against the Yankees, posting a 3.22 ERA over 164.2 innings of work. Since the start of the 2023 season, he has been a great addition to any DraftKings lineup, averaging 22 fantasy points when facing the Yankees.
Gerrit Cole will be on the hill for the Yankees on Sunday. He is making his third start of the season and the first two did not go well for him. In his two previous starts he has allowed eight earned runs for a 9.00 ERA, and in his last start against the surging New York Mets he allowed four home runs. He is nowhere close to top form, and I expect him to not complete five innings in this start against a strong offensive lineup.
Consider betting on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for any prop bet given that he is 10-for-31 batting .323 with three home runs when facing Cole. Another Jays batter to consider betting Over his prop bets is Alejandro Kirk, who is 8-for-22 batting .364 against Cole.
A Situational Betting Algorithm Hitting 65-Percent Winners
The following MLB situational betting algorithm has produced a 54-30-4 Under record for 65-percent winning bets and has made $22,580 for the Dime Bettor since 2017. The requirements are:
- Bet the Under with an underdog that scored 9.0 or more runs in their previous game.
- The dog is facing a team with a winning record.
- The favorite has a starter with a season-to-date WHIP of 1.5 or higher.
Drilling a bit further into the data if the game is a divisional matchup the Under has then produced a highly profitable 28-11-4 record good for 72-percent winning bets since 2017.
The Best Bets for Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN
With a win tonight, the Orioles will have won the most games in MLB during June despite suffering through a five-game losing streak from June 21-25. Since that streak, they have won four straight and will look to make it five when they host the Texas Rangers at Orioles Park at Camden Yards set to start at 7 p.m. EST and will be televised by ESPN. The betting markets have the Orioles priced as a –165-favorites with a posted total of 9.0 runs.
The Orioles are a terrific team but have not drawn nearly the same media and fan attention that the Phillies, Dodgers and Yankees have garnered so far this season. My analytical research finds the Orioles priced as a significantly undervalued team and I am looking to bet them to win the AL Pennant and the World Series. The best odds currently available to bet on the Orioles to win the AL pennant is at FanDuel where they are offered at +380. The best price is at FanDuel at +950 to bet on the Orioles to win the World Series.
Live Betting Strategy
I am betting on the Orioles tonight and will place 70 percent using the moneyline preflop and then look to add the remaining 30 percent if the Rangers score first in the game. For the season the Rangers are just 4-12 in road games in which they scored first. Over the past three seasons, the Rangers are 20-47 in road games against a non-divisional foe when they have scored first in the game.
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