This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Monday's 10-game main slate features a pair of struggling pitchers at the top, as well as one post-hype commodity who may finally be finding his stuff. DFS players shouldn't be afraid to take value shots against some of these struggling big names, as it's a great opportunity to fit higher-priced plays into our lineups.
Pitching
Dylan Bundy, LAA at SEA ($9,000) Bundy has had a hard time keeping the ball in the yard over the course of his career but allowed just one homer in his first 12.2 frames this season (two starts). Bundy is leaning heavily on his slider this year, throwing it 33 percent of the time. This should help him get an edge against the Mariners, who have logged the third-lowest RAA against the slider in 2020.
Dallas Keuchel, CWS vs. MIL ($7,400) This may seem like a curious choice at first blush, as the Brewers fall just outside the top-10 against lefty pitchers according to wOBA, but Keuchel should be able to rely on his changeup and groundball tendencies to get the job done. Milwaukee comes into the contest sporting a 43 percent groundball rate, as well as a bottom-10 RAA against the changeup, a pitch Keuchel throws 31 percent of the time. It should also be noted that the Brewers have tallied just a .289 wOBA on the road in 231 plate appearances.
Top Hitters
Alex Bregman, HOU at ARI ($5,300) Those invested in Robbie Ray have always had to live with his warts to enjoy the fruits of his live arm, but that has been thrown into overdrive to begin 2020, with Ray allowing nine walks and three homers in his first 9.3 innings (two starts). Bregman is the perfect kind of hitter to face Ray due to his low strikeout rate and the fact that he demolished left-handed pitchers in 2019, tallying a .393 ISO and .473(!) wOBA in 163 at-bats.
Javier Baez, CHC at KC ($5,000) Baez's ownership of left-handed hurlers in 2020 may be based on a small sample size, but there's nothing inconclusive about the .314 ISO he posted against lefty pitching over 102 at-bats in 2019. Kris Bubic has solid minor league statistics, but had never pitched above A-ball prior to this season, and allowed two runs (on one home run) over four innings in his major league debut against the White Sox last week.
Nelson Cruz, MIN at PIT ($4,900) Trevor Williams has been absolutely pummeled by right-handed hitters in 2020, allowing a .571 slugging percentage to the 18 batters he has faced. Cruz has been an equal-opportunity masher to begin the year, and currently holds a .300 ISO to go along with a .437 wOBA against same-handed opposition in 30 at-bats.
Best Values
Teoscar Hernandez, TOR at ATL ($4,100) Hernandez has been one of the better power hitters in the league in the opening weeks of the 2020 season, notching four homers and a .476 wOBA in 28 at-bats. While he is hitless in a small sample against southpaws this season, the 27-year-old logged a .246 ISO against opposite-handed hurlers in 142 at-bats last year. Sean Newcomb's strikeouts have gone down while the home runs against him have gone up in his first two starts of the season. He has allowed seven runs in 7.2 innings.
Albert Pujols, LAA at SEA ($3,700) Pujols has hit the ground running in 2020, homering in back-to-back games to give him three long balls over his first eight contests. Marco Gonzales has started his year out with a tidy 2.53 ERA in 10.2 frames (two starts), but that number is a bit deceiving, as he has allowed an incredible 48 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters over that span. This should play into the hands of Pujols, who logged a .255 ISO against southpaws last year.
Freddy Galvis, CIN at CLE ($3,300) It may not be comfortable to pick against Mike Clevinger, but we should try to take advantage of a start that has seen him allow four home runs in just 11 innings. Galvis appears to have flown under the radar a bit, but he has started about as fast as anyone in the league, as evidenced by the .381 ISO and .491 wOBA he has logged in 29 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
Stacks to Consider
Astros against Robbie Ray: Alex Bregman, ($5,300) Carlos Correa, ($4,300) Yuli Gurriel, ($4,100)
There are other Houston hitters to take a look at in the pricing stratosphere, but I wanted to include a couple of hitters that won't put too much strain on the bankroll. Neither Bregman nor Gurriel features a strikeout rate above 13 percent in 2020. While Correa has struck out 21 percent of the time, he also carries a .409 wOBA in 33 at-bats against southpaws.
Twins against Trevor Williams: Nelson Cruz, ($4,900) Mitch Garver, ($4,600) Max Kepler, ($4,100)
The Twins have shown tremendous power to begin the 2020 season, and once again find themselves against a mediocre hurler, which makes it hard to resist going back to this offense for a stack opportunity. Garver hasn't had many at-bats in 2020 but notched a .327 ISO against same-handed opposition in 2019. Meanwhile, Kepler has eviscerated right-handed arms in the early going, as we can see from the .458 ISO he has tallied in 24 at-bats.
