This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
It's a rainy week so you'll have to monitor the weather again for Tuesday's slate. It doesn't look good for Tampa Bay-Kansas City or Baltimore-Chicago, while things should be clear by end of the day for Houston-Minnesota. It's a top-heavy slate in terms of pitching so expect value bats to be more popular.
PITCHING
All of the numbers point to Trevor Bauer ($10,900) being a chalk play and he doesn't cost an extreme amount. The lone worry is that he walked six last start and that came in eight innings against the Astros. He's thrown at least 108 pitches in every outing and has a good chance to hit eight innings again since the Marlins don't have any good numbers with a 27.5 K% and .272 wOBA against righties.
None of the other top pitchers have nearly as good of matchups. Blake Snell ($10,500) has a chance to rebound, but he only made it 3.1 innings against the Royals last start and there's no reason to test your luck with him when Bauer is almost the same price. It's a similar situation for Walker Buehler ($9,900) because, while he gets the lowly Giants, he's failed to surpass 5.2 fantasy points in three of his first five starts.
The next best matchups are Vince Velasquez ($8,700), Julio Teheran ($8,000) and Griffin Canning ($7,800), though it's not like any of them are easy to trust. Canning is worth a gamble against the Blue Jays, who have been poor with a 27.1 K% and .297 wOBA against righty arms. Canning had a cool 17:1 K:BB ratio in three Triple-A starts so it's not a crazy idea.
In terms of value, you have to scrape the barrel because most of the bottom-tier pitchers are getting rocked every start. Andrew Cashner ($5,500) seems to make the most sense since he's allowed just 13 hits in his last three starts and put up 24.2 fantasy points against the White Sox outing. He's the opposite of safe, but the White Sox have a subpar 24.2 K% against righties. Looking at K%, Sandy Alcantara ($6,100) could be a sneaky value play. He allowed four hits in five innings against the Indians last start, but could have more success at home. The Indians also have a high 25.9 K% against righty hurlers and there's hope for more Ks from Alcantara, who has at least six in three of his five starts.
KEY VALUES/CHALK
A lot of lineups will likely focus on the Pirates-Rangers matchup with an over/under of 10.5, which is up half a run since opening. Adrian Sampson has given up 15 hits and nine runs in 8.1 innings from two starts, while Jordan Lyles gave up eight hits and four runs last start. With a righty on the mound, Joey Gallo and Shin-Soo Choo will be the big plays. Gallo is always a homerun threat, while Choo has reached double-digit fantasy points in four of his last five games.
It'll be tough to spend on Cody Bellinger ($5,800) or Mike Trout ($5,700) given the lack of value pitching available. It makes a little more sense to save a few bucks on Bryce Harper ($5,100) or Marcell Ozuna ($5,100), both of whom are in slightly better matchups.
It's a toss up to who the worst starter on the slate is, but the Orioles will be a popular place to turn for value as Ivan Nova gave up 11 hits and nine runs to them last week. Pending weather, anyone is in the conversation given Nova's struggles. Joey Rickard ($3,600) homered off Nova in that last meeting, but so did Chris Davis ($3,100) and he could be the chalk value play of the slate.
There's also decent value in the Luis Castillo and Jason Vargas matchup. The Mets could have trouble with Castillo, but it's always worth throwing money against Vargas, who hasn't gone more than five innings in his four starts. Yasiel Puig ($3,800) brings power at a decent price, though Jose Peraza ($3,300) and Jose Iglesias ($3,100) are the true value plays. Iglesias has surprisingly good numbers against southpaws after cracking a .182 ISO and .371 wOBA last season.
I'm hesitant to believe in Drew Pomeranz after going six scoreless against the Blue Jays last start and think the Dodgers can capitalize with a relatively cheap roster. It also helps that Pomeranz had a brutal 1.88 HR/9 and .401 wOBA allowed to righties last year. A.J. Pollock ($3,500) doesn't bring power, but he has one of LA's better BABIPs (.360) against lefty arms in the early season. Russell Martin ($3,600) is also back in the fold and he could be used with Justin Turner ($3,600) for cheap.
I wouldn't be surprised if some people took a gamble on Miguel Cabrera ($3,800) in GPP since he has two homers in two career at-bats against Vince Velasquez. That isn't really a sample, but people get amped for that kind of stat.
STACKS
Rockies vs. Jhoulys Chacin (Brewers)
(OF Charlie Blackmon - $5,200), (SS Trevor Story - $5,300), (1B Daniel Murphy $4,800); (OF David Dahl - $4,700), (1B/2B Ryan McMahon - $4,300), (OF Raimel Tapia - $4,500)
It's usually a bad idea to back the Rockies on the road, but Chacin's struggles are hard to ignore. He's given up multiple runs in every start this year and gave up a .338 wOBA and 5.27 xFIP to lefties last season. The Rockies have a solid core of lefty bats if you can fit them in, but even if Story doesn't work, I'd still grab Blackmon and Murphy at the top of the order. I also like the lefty trio of Dahl, McMahon and Tapia, which isn't overly expensive. Dahl has Colorado's best wOBA (.394) and Tapia has its best ISO (.292) against righties in the early season.
Cardinals vs. Anibal Sanchez (Nationals)
(3B Matt Carpenter - $4,100), (1B Paul Goldschmidt - $5,300), (SS Paul DeJong - $4,800); (OF Jose Martinez - $4,100), (C Yadier Molina - $3,900), (OF Dexter Fowler - $3,900)
It's been automatic to go against Sanchez in the first month, as he's sporting a 6.00 ERA and terrible 3.1 K-BB%. He's been bad against everyone, though he's given up 14 hits and 11 walks to 57 lefties faced. That fits in perfectly with Carpenter at the top of the lineup even if he's struggled early. If you want to save money, I'm also comfortable in backing the bottom stack since Martinez and Fowler lead the St. Louis starters in terms of BABIP against righty arms.
Red Sox vs. Aaron Brooks (Athletics)
(OF Andrew Benintendi - $4,600), (OF Mookie Betts - $5,000), (1B Mitch Moreland - $4,200), (OF J.D. Martinez - $4,900); (3B Rafael Devers - $4,100), (2B/3B Michael Chavis- $4,500), (OF Jackie Bradley Jr. - $3,100)
Brooks isn't allowing many hits, but he's allowing runs with 20 given up (and six homers) in his last four starts. I'm not sure Fenway Park will be the cure since Boston has been slightly better at home. It helps that Martinez is somewhat cheaper after a couple days off due to back spasms, but he hasn't shown much power against righties early so that's part of it. Either way you look at it, Benintendi should be part of the stack with a .391 BABIP against righty arms in 76 plate appearances. The only problem with the bottom stack is that Bradley is a dud and if you take him out for Xander Bogaerts ($4,400), it's no longer much of a value.
