This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
For Sunday, DraftKings' featured slate of contests is covering the first nine games of the day. You'll have to have your lineup in by 1:05 p.m. ET. It's the first day of May. Let's get it started on the right foot.
Pitching
Corbin Burnes, MIL vs. CHC ($10,200): The Cubs have risen up the runs scored rankings from last season when they finished 21st. Seiya Suzuki won't hit like this forever, so the offense is likely to regress. I fear few lineups when it comes to Burnes considering he won the Cy Young with a 2.43 ERA last season and has a 1.75 through four starts.
Joe Musgrove, SD at PIT ($9,600): Musgrove may not be in his pitcher-friendly home park, but he won't mind facing his old team. The Pirates rank 24th in runs scored after sitting last in 2021, and I wouldn't be surprised if they end up in the basement again. Musgrove, for his part, has posted a 2.16 ERA.
Logan Gilbert, SEA at MIA ($9,400): I thought Gilbert had the chance to improve upon a rookie campaign where he had a 3.72 FIP, but I certainly didn't see this coming. He's allowed one run through four starts, and even his 2.38 FIP is a sign of strong pitching. At this point in the campaign, I still put stock in team numbers from last season when a team didn't change a lot in the offseason, and the Marlins ranked 29th in scoring in 2021.
Top Targets
Aaron Judge ($5,700) is hitting like he's trying to recapture his rookie campaign when he hit 52 home runs and slugged .627. Of course, those kind of numbers are reminiscent of his typical performance against lefties. Since 2020, he's slugged .637 versus southpaws. Daniel Lynch hasn't given up any runs in his last two starts, but the lefty allowed three homers in five innings during his opener. He's also produced a career 4.66 FIP, so I don't think the last two starts change his forecast.
While Rafael Devers ($5,200) needs to get his walk rate up, he's still hit .293 and slugged .467. He'll have the chance to pick up a couple hits against Jordan Lyles, whose 5.40 ERA is in line with his career 5.21 number. And while it's admittedly early, he's allowed lefties to hit .400 against him this year. He's turning southpaws into Ted Williams!
Bargain Bats
At least when lefties are on the mound, Anthony Rendon ($4,500) is starting to look like the player who earned himself a hefty free-agent deal. He's so far recorded an .894 OPS versus lefties, and in 2020 his OPS against lefties was .961. The left-handed Dallas Keuchel has struggled to a 6.10 FIP through three starts, which is concerning given he had a 5.22 last season.
Cedric Mullins ($4,200) broke out with 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases last season, so seeing him hitting .210 may lead you to believe it was a fluke and Cinderella's carriage has turned back into a pumpkin. I'm not ready to write him off, especially in this matchup. The Red Sox kept Nick Pivetta in their rotation even though he posted a 4.53 ERA last year. This year, that number has ballooned to 8.27. And maybe I should apologize to Lyles since Pivetta has allowed lefties to hit .421 against him to start the year.
Stacks to Consider
Padres vs. Mitch Keller ($7,300): Manny Machado ($6,200), Eric Hosmer ($5,200), Jake Cronenworth ($4,900)
When Keller had a 3.18 FIP compared to a 7.13 ERA as a rookie in 2019, some held out hope. Well here we are in 2022, and he's sitting at a career 6.08 ERA and 4.26 FIP. Perhaps it's time to give up the ghost on Keller, except when you are targeting him for a stack for your DFS lineup.
Machado is scorching hot to start the season, but it's not like he's ever struggled as a Padre having slashed .279/.351/.498. As long as Hosmer is hot and as long as he's facing a righty on the mound, I'm riding with him with a .389/.457/.597 line so far. Cronenworth's first couple of seasons have gone well, and he crushed 21 homers in 2021. His average is down this year, but he still has a .344 OBP.
Cardinals vs. Zach Davies ($5,600): Paul Goldschmidt ($5,000), Tommy Edman ($5,300), Dylan Carlson ($3,800)
Davies was dealt to the Cubs last year and proceeded to post a 5.78 ERA. He made the move to the Diamondbacks and has managed a 5.40 through four starts. St. Louis lacks a real weapon from the left side of the plate, but they have two switch hitters I included in my stack.
Goldschmidt will be facing his old club, and he's been just fine with his current one. The only thing missing in 2022 is his power, but this is someone with six 30-homer seasons to his name so his power will arrive eventually. Meanwhile, Edman is showing more power than ever slugging .486. He's also shown speed with five stolen bases in 2022 after 30 last season. Carlson isn't doing much, but slashed .266/.343/.437 with 18 homers last year. I wanted the switch hitter against the righty, and his .226 BABIP should improve.
Brewers vs. Marcus Stroman ($6,200): Christian Yelich ($4,400), Kolten Wong ($4,000), Andrew McCutchen ($3,800)
This is a bet on something possibly being off with Stroman right now. Through four starts, he's registered a 6.98 ERA and has given up a home run in each. He's also allowed lefties to hit .295 against this year, which is why there are two of them in this stack.
The possible sapping of Yelich's power is concerning because it's been going on for an extended period. However, he has a .781 OPS at home since 2020 and he's been fine against righties the last two years. And there's always the hope with a former MVP still in his theoretical prime. Wong is hitting well below his career .261 average, so I expect improvement. He recorded 14 homers and 12 stolen bases in 2021, his fourth season in double digits for both. McCutchen is getting to lead off and DH and has two homers and three stolen bases while going long 27 times in 2021.
