This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Prospective owners will need to plan well for Monday's 10-game main slate, as it will be difficult to find quality pitchers outside of the $9,000 range. This will make rostering value bats/stacks important unless players are willing to take a chance on a mediocre pitcher with a favorable matchup.
Pitching Overview
There is no denying the success Luis Castillo ($11,800) has had this season. The issue is that he is facing a Cubs offense that ranks in the top-5 against right-handed pitchers according to wOBA. We have quite a few pitchers to choose from on this slate making it difficult to pay such a price for a hurler in a tough spot.
Lucas Giolito ($11,200) is another hurler that has had tremendous success in 2019, posting a 3.15 ERA and a 30 percent strikeout rate in 17 starts. The Royals are a bottom-10 team against righties this year according to wOBA, and Giolito put up a whopping 40.3 DraftKings points when he faced the squad in June, making it a bit easier to fit him into lineups.
Clayton Kershaw ($10,700) may never get his strikeout pitch back but he hasn't lost his ability to limit walks or throw grounders, which has resulted in a 3.09 ERA in 15 starts. There is reason to be cautious against the Phillies in Citizens Bank Park, however, as the former Cy Young Award winner has shown himself to be a bit homer-prone on the road (1.4 HR/9).
Blake Snell ($10,000) has rebounded from an atrocious stretch in June that saw him allow 17 runs in 6.2 innings over three starts but he will go back to the site of one of those drubbings when he faces the Yankees at The Stadium. The Yankees are a bottom-10 team against lefties this season but the young southpaws' issues with keeping the ball in the yard should make prospective owners wary of handing over five figures to roster him in The Bronx.
Kyle Hendricks ($9,500) has been an absolute dynamo at home, posting a 1.65 ERA with 45 strikeouts over 49 innings. The Reds have logged just a .294 wOBA on the road this year, making Hendricks a nice target for those who want to avoid the extreme top of the range.
James Paxton's ($9,300) strikeout potential and 3.26 ERA at Yankee Stadium make him something of a sneaky GPP target against the Rays, who have logged a bottom-10 wOBA and a 26 percent strikeout rate against lefty pitching.
The mid-to-low cost pitching is about as rough as I have ever seen it for such a large slate but we can always rely on our friends the Cardinals, who still hold the lowest wOBA in the league over the last 30 days of play. It can charitably be said that Joe Musgrove ($5,800) has had an up-and-down season, but he may be showing signs of consistency, having allowed just 13 runs in 34 .2 innings dating back to June 1.
Key Values
Cody Bellinger ($5,100) is the 11th most expensive hitter on the slate, which I consider to be a bit unusual for a matchup with a pitcher like Zach Eflin, who has allowed a .544 slugging percentage to lefty hitters.
DFS players will likely jump on David Dahl ($4,900) against Dereck Rodriguez, as Dahl has notched a .229 ISO and a .370 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Meanwhile, Rodriguez holds a ghastly 6.30 xFIP against lefty hitters in 23.1 frames.
George Springer ($4,600) will likely be a fairly popular option as he enters a matchup against Griffin Canning. Springer has notched a .273 ISO against righty pitchers this season, while Canning has kept something of a reverse split, allowing a .488 slugging percentage in 32.2 innings.
Gary Sanchez ($4,400) is worth playing based on his power alone at this price, as he has logged a .293 ISO in 58 at-bats against lefty pitching. Snell has thrown the ball well against right-handed hitters but his recent struggles are part of what makes Sanchez such an enticing option.
Rick Porcello's fall has been hard to explain, as the former Cy Young Award winner now holds a 5.33 ERA in 18 starts this season. This bodes well for a hitter like Freddy Galvis ($4,300) who has notched a .216 ISO against righty hurlers in 222 at-bats.
Adam Plutko has been hit hard by right-handed opposition this season, as evidenced by the .614 slugging percentage he has allowed in 17.2 innings. Nicholas Castellanos ($4,200) hasn't been as successful against same-handed pitchers in 2019 as in years past but has still logged a 39 percent hard contact rate in 287 at-bats.
Nick Markakis ($4,100) has swung the bat well against righty pitchers this year, notching a .365 wOBA in 251 at-bats. Adrian Houser has thrown the ball well against righties but has struggled mightily against his opposite hand, allowing a .545 slugging percentage in 16.1 frames.
Stacks
Dodgers against Zach Eflin (Phillies)
Cody Bellinger (OF- $5,100) Corey Seager (SS - $4,200) Joc Pederson (1B/OF - $4,200)
The Dodgers have a parade of powerful lefties we can use to try to exploit Eflin. One of the most intriguing options among them is Corey Seager, who is back with the team after missing a month with a hamstring strain. Seager has notched a .245 ISO against right-handed pitching in 159 at-bats this year.
Indians against Daniel Norris (Tigers)
Jordan Luplow (OF - $3,900) Jose Ramirez (3B -$4,100) Carlos Santana (1B - $5,000)
An Indians stack will likely go under the radar against Norris, who has logged an ERA close to 5.00 in his 90.2 innings this season. Jose Ramirez is the interesting play here, as he may finally be showing signs of life, having tallied a .324 ISO in 34 July at-bats.
