This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Monday's nine-game slate features a few mid-range pitchers worth a look, as well as plenty of hurlers to potentially stack against. Meanwhile, the top four arms on the slate all face obstacles that could potentially make them fades.
Pitching Overview
It's difficult to overstate how good Trevor Bauer ($10,400) has been since the beginning of 2018, but it would be tough to pay up for any pitcher against the Mariners, who are a top-5 team when it comes to wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitchers.
Ditto for Noah Syndergaard ($10,000), who will take on a dangerous Phillies offense in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.
Clayton Kershaw ($9,800) will likely get a ton of focus as he makes his season debut against a Cincinnati offense that is once again struggling on the road in 2019. Kershaw has been on the shelf with a shoulder injury, which may give some prospective owners cause for alarm, but the fact that he threw 81 pitches in a recent rehab start should allay fears that he will be severely limited.
Luis Castillo ($9,500) has stormed out of the gate after closing strong in 2018, allowing just two runs in 19.2 innings (three starts), while notching 25 strikeouts over that span. The Dodgers have been a top offense against right-handed pitchers during the young season but Castillo's recent domination makes him someone that needs to be on the radar for GPPs.
Joey Lucchesi ($9,000) had trouble staying ahead of hitters in his last outing against the Giants but the Rockies have struggled so mightily on the road that I expect DFS players to be back on the horse. Colorado will enter the contest sporting the lowest wOBA in the league away from their home ballpark. (.215).
Matt Shoemaker ($8,000) has looked phenomenal to begin the year, tallying a 0.92 ERA with 19 strikeouts over 19.2 innings. While he almost certainly won't pitch at an elite level all year, he looks to be making real gains with his groundball and swinging strike rates, which makes him worth a look at this price.
The ugly start to the season continued for Yu Darvish ($7,800) in his last outing but he did show some signs of improvement, logging a 4:0 K/BB ratio in 5.1 innings. He remains a cheap GPP play against the Marlins on the road.
Key Values
Christian Yelich ($5,400) should be fairly popular in his matchup against Dakota Hudson, whose high walk and home run rates make him ripe for the picking at Miller Park.
Players who want to select Adalberto Mondesi ($5,100) will need to break the bank yet again but it's difficult to argue with the pricing, as he currently holds a .308 ISO against right-handed pitching in 39 at-bats. Small sample caveats apply but it may be wise to focus on Ervin Santana, who got hammered in his first start this year after spending most of 2018 recovering from injury.
Tim Anderson ($4,500) is a hitter on a tremendous run at a reasonable price, which should tick his ownership rates when he faces Heath Fillmyer and the Royals. Fillmyer got hit hard in his first start of the year and showed himself to be a pitcher with unimpressive strikeout and walk rates in 82.1 frames last season.
Randal Grichuk ($4,300) has shown above-average power against both sides of the platoon throughout his career. Meanwhile, Martin Perez has always been a low-walk, low-strikeout pitcher who can sometimes be susceptible to the long ball, making this a potentially juicy matchup.
Joey Gallo ($4,900) was feeling a bit under the weather Sunday but should be able to put his power to good use if he is able to suit up against Trevor Cahill, who has kept an ERA of 6.75 on the road in his last 96 innings dating back to last season.
Anthony Rizzo ($4,200) will take his talents on the road against Trevor Richards, who finished 2018 with a 4.46 xFIP against left-handed hitters.
Kole Calhoun ($3,800) represents a nice value play in Texas against Shelby Miller. Miller has yet to get back on track after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2017 and has kept a 6.58 ERA in his last 142.1 frames going back to 2016.
Stacks
Blue Jays against Martin Perez: Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez ($3,900) Billy McKinney ($3,400)
Hernandez has kept his above-average power against lefties even during his poor start to the year. McKinney was known as a decent power hitter with excellent plate discipline in the minors and notched a .462 slugging percentage in time split between the Yankees and the Blue Jays last season.
Brewers against Dakota Hudson: Christian Yelich, Yasmani Grandal ($4,500) Mike Moustakas ($4,300)
Hudson allowed three homers and walked two in 4.1 innings in his first start at Miller Park in March. Yelich, Grandal, and Moustakas could work to replicate that outing, as they all finished 2018 with an ISO better than .200 against right-handed pitching.
Mets against Aaron Nola: Pete Alonso ($4,800) Jeff McNeil ($3,900) Michael Conforto ($4,500)
We will leave off with a GPP stack that attempts to exploit the early struggles of Nola. The right-hander's swinging strike rate has decreased by more than four percent to begin the season and all of his pitches are currently returning negative run values. It's entirely possible that Nola will correct himself in short order but it may be worth jumping on this leverage stack in case his problems persist.
