This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Most Mondays of the season have had a reasonable number of games on the main slate, though unfortunately that changes this week with only six matchups at our disposal. Even with the limited selection, there's a strong group of pitchers to work with, some of which dip down into the middle tiers of pricing. There are no extremely obvious hitting environments, though the Angels-White Sox matchup as well the Atlanta-Minnesota game are potential places to attack based on park factor alone.
Pitchers
After a brief run of mediocrity, Spencer Strider ($12,600) returned to dominance against the Phillies his last time out. He has the highest strikeout rate of all available pitchers by 10 percentage points. Strider's matchup against the Twins matches his skillset perfectly, as they strike out at the highest rate of any team in the league.
Luis Castillo ($11,000) is the second-highest-priced pitcher and has a strong case to make thanks to the significant discount in price as compared to Strider. He has the second-best skillset on the slate, as measured by K%, K-BB% and SIERA. The downside is his matchup against the Nationals as they strike out at the lowest rate of all big-league clubs, though they have only a 93 wRC+ and .312 wOBA.
It's been an inconsistent season for Justin Verlander ($8,300), but he's shown the ability to deliver ceiling performances with starts of 29.4 and 28.2 DK points on his ledger. He'll be in a good spot to replicate those marks against a subpar Brewers' lineup that strikes out at a 25.8 percent clip – second-highest in the league.
Reid Detmers ($7,300) is an intriguing option thanks to his 28.2 percent strikeout rate, making him stand out at his price point. He pitches in a tough home park, but a matchup against the White Sox is not imposing.
With Detmers being priced down, we don't need to pay all the way down in contests. But, for those looking for a punt, Colin Rea ($5,600) is the best bet. He'll square off against Verlander and the Mets and has struggled his last two times through the rotation, though he has some track record of success this season.
Top Hitters
Anthony Santander ($4,300) may not be priced all the way up, but he's in the midst of a hot streak by tallying five homers in his last 10 games. More importantly, he faces lefty Brandon Williamson who has served up 2.0 HR/9. Meanwhile, Santander has maintained a .405 wOBA against southpaws on the season.
Luis Robert ($4,900) is an intriguing spot. Detmers isn't a pitcher to target, but Robert has demolished lefties to the career rate of a .272 ISO. On a day with fewer options, I'm willing to rely less on matchups and more on individual skill in a lot of spots. This is one of them.
Value Bats
Kevin Newman ($2,800) has become something of a cheat code when the Reds are facing a lefty. He leads off and has one of the hottest lineups behind him, which washes out the fact that he has relatively uninspiring skills. A matchup against Cole Irvin is no reason to shy away.
The Mariners should be in a good position to score some runs Monday against Trevor Williams, who has the second-lowest strikeout rate among pitchers taking the mound Monday while also giving up 1.7 HR/9. J.P. Crawford ($3,100) isn't particularly exciting but should lead off and is priced reasonably given the team context.
Stacks to Consider
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds (Brandon Williamson): Austin Hays ($3,800), Adley Rutschman ($5,400), Anthony Santander ($4,400)
Baltimore is a tough team to evaluate Monday. On the one hand, they have the matchup against Williamson, who has the lowest strikeout rate, lowest K-BB% and highest SIERA of all pitchers taking the hill. In addition to the matchup, the top of the Orioles' lineup isn't all that difficult to roster from a price perspective. The downside is that Camden Yards doesn't do hitters any favor, though that negative is outweighed by the rest of the positives.
Atlanta vs. Minnesota Twins (Sonny Gray): Ronald Acuna ($6,500), Ozzie Albies ($5,200), Matt Olson ($6,000)
Gray has slowed down across his last few starts after an excellent beginning to his campaign. Even so, this pick is more about the talent in the Atlanta lineup, which has the ability to blow up any pitcher on a given night. With relatively few options to choose from, I'll again rely on star power coming through rather than a specific matchup. The other problem with this stack is price, so back on paying down at pitcher to roster this trio.
