This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
All but two teams (Chicago Cubs and Arizona) feature in Friday's main slate, but weather could shorten the options. Keep an eye on Atlanta at Cleveland, Minnesota at Baltimore, San Francisco at Pittsburgh and Kansas City at New York Yankees, as all four are at risk and at the very least shortens the pitching pool.
Pitching
Jose Berrios ($10,800) is rightfully atop the pricing against Baltimore (.280 wOBA, 92 wRC+, .147 ISO), if the weather allows him to throw a regular number of frames, but I have doubts there. Justin Verlander ($10,400) is the easy pivot, but he's allowed a long ball in each of his first four starts and four runs across four innings at Texas just two starts ago. He's likely due a bounceback outing, but Texas' fifth-ranked .348 wOBA against righties is enough to push pause for cash.
Corey Kluber ($9,000) suggests well against a Braves' offense that scored just three runs over their last 19 innings, but weather is again a concern. Unfortunately, that takes Touki Toussaint ($7,300) off of your lists for second arms as well.
Madison Bumgarner ($9,500) is the obvious pivot given the other variables. He's been good for at least 17.3 DKP in three of his first four starts and faces a Pirates lineup that brings a 30.2 percent strikeout rate and .245 wOBA to the table. Carlos Rodon ($8,300) and Marco Gonzales ($8,000) look solid as well. Rodon faces a Tigers squad that has a woeful .064 ISO against lefties while fanning 23.1 percent of the time, and Gonzales gets an Angels side that doesn't swing and miss (16.4 percent) but has a league-worst .241 wOBA against southpaws.
Looking for second arms to round out your lineup, CC Sabathia ($7,200) leads the way with the Yankees being huge favorites (-210) against Kansas City, who own only a .288 wOBA against lefties. Jordan Lyles ($7,900), who counters Bumgarner, Anthony DeSclafani ($7,000), Matt Strahm ($7,100) and Jordan Zimmermann ($6,500) round out the options in games with sub eight run totals.
Key Chalk/Value
Lineup construction will likely start with Cardinals' bats against Jason Vargas ($5,600) who's allowed 10 runs across just 6.1 innings. Marcell Ozuna ($4,900), Paul Goldschmidt ($4,800) and Matt Carpenter ($4,400) are the anchors and all present well against lefties. Jose Martinez ($3,800) and/or Dexter Fowler ($3,600) can be targeted as cheap options if in the lineup with Harrison Bader ($3,700) sidelined.
Coors Field is on the table, which will make Rockies and Phillies popular options, and having at least a small piece is prudent. Philadelphia doesn't have the best matchup against German Marquez ($8,500), who has just a 3.03 xFIP at home since the start of 2018, so maybe a secondary option like Andrew McCutchen ($4,800) or a surging Scott Kingery ($4,500) is the better choice as opposed to Bryce Harper ($5,100) or Rhys Hoskins ($5,200). For the Rockies, Nolan Arenado ($5,400) homered in three straight prior to Thursday, while lefty David Dahl ($4,600) has the best profile against righties, posting a .381 wOBA and .282 ISO against. Phils' starter Vince Velasquez ($6,700) isn't missing many bats, and his .133 BABIP isn't sustainable.
With a nice handful of lefties on the bump, we can target known opposite-handed mashers. Eugenio Suarez ($4,000) hasn't faired well this year, but still owns a .427 wOBA and .280 ISO against southpaws since the start of last season. Anthony Rendon ($5,300) has a .401 wOBA and .301 ISO over the last year-plus, Alex Bregman ($4,600) has gone .397/.236 and Jorge Soler ($4,100) .419/.338. Tommy Pham ($4,300) fits in well here as well (.450 wOBA, .240 ISO since joining the Rays. I really like the Rays as a whole, but their numbers against lefties don't present well enough for a stack.
Stacks
San Diego Padres vs. Anthony DeSclafani ($7,000); Manny Machado ($4,400), Hunter Renfroe ($4,300), Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,200): DeSclafani has already allowed four homers in just 13.1 innings. Renfroe leads the way here with a .362 wOBA and .317 ISO, with Machado (.356/.200) and Tatis (.349/.263) following closely behind. The game strangely has a total of just 7.5 despite two pitchers having ERAs north of four, which could have some staying away and lead to lower ownership.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Jhoulys Chacin ($6,600); Cody Bellinger ($5,600), Joc Pederson ($5,000), Alex Verdugo ($4,300): Bellinger remains white hot, owning five double-digit DKP games in his last 10 and boasting a .646 wOBA, 309 wRC+ and .566 ISO against righties. He's also 5-of-12 with two homers in his career against Chacin, who allowed six runs in just 2.1 innings in his last outing, conveniently against the Dodgers. Pederson's form isn't far off, as he carries a .460 wOBA, 189 wRC+ and .482 ISO. Finding a third Dodger bat isn't as obvious, so using another lefty seems to work. Verdugo checks in with a .376 wOBA and .205 ISO.
Miami Marlins vs. Anibal Sanchez ($8,100); Jorge Alfaro ($3,500), Brian Anderson ($3,600), Neil Walker ($3,600): This is clearly a GPP pivot, and you easily can argue the upside isn't great. But Sanchez hasn't been as good as he surprisingly was in 2018, currently sporting a 5.06 xFIP while the Nats' bullpen has a 5.00 ERA. Alfaro has a team-best .387 wOBA against righties to date, while Anderson and Walker follow with modest .334 and .323 numbers, respectively. All three have high strikeout rates, but that's negated some by Sanchez fanning just 5.9 per nine innings. BvP guys will also like Martin Prado ($3,300), who has a .388 wOBA against righties and is 15-of-36 in his career against Sanchez.
