This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Fading Coors might be a challenge on this 15-game slate.
The Rockies are hosting the Marlins this weekend, and there are plenty of offensive fireworks expected with the Friday night matchup sitting at a cool 11.5 over/under.
Several totals are at 8.5 or less, and weather might be a significant issue on this slate, as the early forecasts show rain as a potential problem in Pittsburgh, Washington, Cincinnati and Cleveland.
As noted over the last couple weeks, I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
A strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
For those interested, we've started an MLB DFS Slack channel for paid RotoWire subscribers. (There is a season-long one as well.) To join those channels, e-mail support@rotowire.com.
Pitcher
I'm keeping the "new" format of this section for today's piece. Please let me know if you think this is a good change.
Sean Newcomb, ATL vs. BAL ($10,500) -- Increasingly, I'm convinced that Newcomb is Robbie Ray 2.0 (that is a compliment). The Orioles are bad. The Braves are good. Newcomb should get plenty of run support with Alex Cobb on the mound for the Orioles, and with a bullpen that can effectively protect his lead, he's the best all-around pitching play on the board Friday night.
Dallas Keuchel, HOU vs. KC ($8,400) -- Limited strikeout upside could leave Keuchel mostly to cash-game lineups, but the Royals are a below-average offense against lefties, and the Astros are huge favorites (-315), which offers up a high floor for a good starter at home in a pitcher-friendly environment.
Alex Wood, LAD at NYM ($9,100) -- The Mets continue to be the worst team in the league against lefties (the Brewers are inching closer to their team wRC+, however), giving Wood a path to his first 20+ point start since May 3.
Jose Quintana, CHC at CIN ($8,600) -- Over the last 10 starts, Quintana has averaged more than a strikeout per inning, while turning in a 2.75 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. If you haven't forgotten about his sluggish April yet, it's time to let it go.
Patrick Corbin, ARI at PIT ($11,600) -- The Pirates don't strike out much, and Corbin's reduced velocity has led to three starts in his last five with at least five earned runs allowed. Although he's the highest-priced option on the board, Corbin isn't a great cash option, and he may come in with a low enough ownership rate to be a contrarian arm in tournaments. Even then, I'm lukewarm on using him since it will create a cap-issue with the hitters.
Luis Castillo, CIN vs. CHC ($5,800) -- Tournaments only, of course. If you're not buying Quintana and want a high-upside (albeit, also high-risk) arm for the second pitcher spot, Castillo checks the boxes Friday night.
Shane Bieber, CLE vs. DET ($8,700) -- I believe this price is better reflects the quality of the matchup at home against the Tigers than Bieber's actual skills. The strikeout rate in his first two starts is well above expectations, and maybe it continues as teams get their first look at him. Consider him as an alternative to Quintana and Keuchel with a reasonably high win probability.
Catcher
Mike Zunino, SEA at BOS ($3,200) -- The swing-and-miss tendencies will always steer Zunino toward GPP-only labels. It's a righty-righty matchup against Steven Wright for the Mariners on Friday night, and I'm not buying Wright at all as anything more than a back-end starter despite the impressive numbers in a handful of starts thus far. As cash options go, Buster Posey at $3,800 with a home matchup against San Diego lefty Clayton Richard is the optimal solution Friday.
Alternatives: Chris Iannetta, COL vs. MIA ($3,700), Max Stassi, HOU vs. KC ($3,500)
First Base
Kendrys Morales, TOR at LAA ($3,300) -- Picking on Andrew Heaney, especially at home, is something I've generally avoided this season. Morales' splits against lefties since the start of last season (.317/.366/.522) are among the best at the position on Friday's slate. Moreover, his disappointing numbers overall in 2018 are steeped in bad luck. Entering play Friday, Morales is second only to J.D. Martinez in hard-hit rate at 58.0%, according to Statcast's 95+ mph exit velocity metric.
Others to consider: Justin Bour, MIA at COL ($4,200), Yonder Alonso, CLE vs. DET ($3,800)
Second Base
Brian Dozier, MIN vs. TEX ($3,600) -- It's only a matter of time. Season-long owners are undoubtedly frustrated by the first half that Dozier has put together. At a reduced price, he'll face Rangers lefty Mike Minor, who has allowed a .275/.336/.523 to right-handed hitters this season, along with 11 of the 12 homers he's surrendered. Dozier's lighter-than-expected output against southpaws seems fluky, as he's slugged more than .600 against lefties in each of the last two seasons. The low price and favorable matchup should make Dozier the most highly-owned second baseman on Friday's slate, so adjust accordingly in tournaments if your lineup is chalk-laden elsewhere.
Alternatives: DJ LeMahieu, COL vs. MIA ($4,800), Fading Corbin? -- Josh Harrison, PIT vs. ARI ($3,800), Devon Travis, TOR at LAA ($3,200)
Third Base
Jake Lamb, ARI at PIT ($4,100) -- The setup for Lamb is surprisingly favorable Friday night, as PNC Park plays close to neutral for left-handed homers, while Pittsburgh starter Ivan Nova doesn't miss bats (10.3% K% vs. LHH) and is prone to the big fly. Since it's difficult to jam at $5,900 Nolan Arenado or $5,600 Jose Ramirez into the lineup, dropping down to the next tier is almost required. Lamb was not a part of the D-backs' offensive outburst in the series opener Thursday night, but he should be back in the fold for the encore against Nova in Game 2.
Alternatives: Anthony Rendon, WAS vs. PHI ($3,900), Johan Camargo, ATL vs. BAL ($3,300)
Shortstop
Elvis Andrus, TEX at MIN ($3,900) -- The Rangers will face Twins rookie Fernando Romero on Friday night, and while Romero is a fringe consideration for tournaments, I am more inclined to pick my spot carefully with Andrus as a reasonably priced option at a thin shortstop position on this slate. Prior to his placement on the DL with a fractured in his elbow, Andrus was picking up right where he left off in 2017 with his production at the plate, averaging nearly eight DraftKings points per game. Optimal use of Andrus over the last two-plus seasons has been against left-handed starters, but the slightly above-average production against righties during that span, paired with his high placement in the Texas lineup, makes him viable even against a same-handed starter on occasion.
Alternatives: Andrelton Simmons, LAA vs. TOR ($3,400)
Outfield
J.D. Martinez, BOS vs. SEA ($5,300) -- I'm prioritizing spending up in the outfield for at least one of the three pieces in my lineups. Martinez is home at Fenway Park against surprisingly effective lefty Wade LeBlanc, but when you consider Martinez's continued dominance against southpaws (.344/.417/.708 since the start of 2017), he looks like the best of the expensive building blocks on a night where Coors bats are very inflated thanks to the Rockies' matchup against Wei-Yin Chen.
Nick Markakis, ATL vs. BAL ($4,300) -- Within the Braves' lineup, Markakis is a relative bargain in a home matchup against Alex Cobb. The interest has likely waned over the last few weeks, as he's homered once over the last 38 games. As noted above, the outfield is surprisingly difficult to navigate on this slate, but perhaps we'll get lucky when the lineups are posted this afternoon with a few cheap surprises. In any case, Markakis' June splits (.288/.338/.394) are more in line with his previous seasons in Atlanta, but the matchup against Cobb is enough to spike the power output to level where he's worth the risk at this price point.
Mac Williamson, SF vs. SD ($3,300) -- Clayton Richard sharp at home, and he's been particularly effective against left-handed bats, but nine of the 10 homers he's allowed this season have come against righties. With an opportunity to hit fifth or sixth in the Giants' lineup in this matchup, Williamson is on the short list of cheap outfielders with the big power necessary to make a significant impact on Friday's slate.
Alternatives to consider: Andrew McCutchen, SF vs. SD ($4,000), Lonnie Chisenhall, CLE vs. DET ($3,200), Tyler Naquin, CLE vs. DET ($3,200)
