Collette Calls: AL Pitching Bold Predictions Review

Rather than interrupt this month of accountability content with longform version of me explaining my thoughts on winning AL LABR, I wrote them up over on my blossoming space over at Medium.com. I've taken to Medium as a non-fantasy outlet to express some general baseball thoughts that are not as easily done on micro-blogging sites. Please take a look when time permits.

Kyle Bradish is a top-100 pitcher in 2023 - 5 Stars

Bradish was the 145th pitcher on ADP charts when I made this mid-January prediction for his fortunes. I first outlined why I liked Bradish so much around Thanksgiving, but even I did not forsee Bradish finishing the season as the eighth most valuable fantasy starting pitcher! Bradish got off to a slow start through his first nine games, with a 2-1 record, a 3.89 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, but he went 10-6 once the calendar flipped to June, recording a 2.45 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 132 strikeouts in 124 innings of work, helping push Baltimore to their improbable AL East pennant. Bradish was a kingmaker in many fantasy leagues, providing a massive return on investment for someone that was going in the 20th round or later in many drafts even into the peak of draft season.

Chris Martin is a top-150 pitcher in 2023 - 4 Stars

Martin's ADP was in the mid 500's at the time of this prediction, but he finished the season as the 114th most valuable fantasy pitcher. His four wins and three saves in 51.1 innings weren't significant contributors in mixed leagues, but his stellar 1.05 ERA and 1.03 WHIP were playable in any league where Martin was available, especially in a deeper mixed league if you chose to stream middle-relief options. 

Carlos Rodon is not a top-40 pitcher - 4 Stars

Simply put, Rodon was a roster killer in 2023 as he hit the perfect nexus of a first-year free-agent with a new team on a big contract coming off a massive workload spike with a checkered injury past. The warning signs were all there, yet his ADP was still inside the top 50 when this prediction was made. Rodon didn't even make his 2023 debut until July 7 and proceeded to give up four or more earned runs in half of his 14 starts while conducting his own personal tribute to Carl Pavano's time in pinstripes. I cannot put a five-star label on this because I didn't think he would be this bad in 2023. 

Pete Fairbanks is a top-50 pitcher - 2 Stars

This is the prediction that I hung my hat on everywhere, and I mean everywhere. If I was in a league, Fairbanks was on my team. I took him in every single league I had anywhere from the 8th round or for as much as $14. The crazy part is Fairbanks was terrific with two wins, 25 saves and 68 strikeouts alongside a 2.58 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. The challenge was he once again failed to reach the 50-inning mark as he first dealt with Raynaud's Syndrome and then an issue with his hip. Fairbanks finished as the 64th-most valuable pitcher, so this prediction wasn't terrible but was still tinged with a bit of my Rays' bias. The stellar command Fairbanks had in 2022 appears to be an outlier because the issue with his fingers is going to linger early and late in seasons during outdoor appearances. 

Alek Manoah is not a top-40 starting pitcher - 4 Stars

The final sentence in the Rodon recap applies here. I wanted nothing to do with Manoah because I knew there would be a statistical correction coming and even compared it to the lesson I learned in 2013, when I thought Jeremy Hellickson was the real deal after his first two seasons in the big leagues. That ended poorly. Hellickson's season wasn't nearly as bad as Manoah's, as the latter had zero control of the baseball and was regularly punished by opposing lineups. It got so bad the club tried the Roy Halladay rehabilitation path with Manoah, sending him all the way back to Dunedin. He came back for his first start against Detroit and looked vintage Manoah, but that was about the last positive moment of his season and he was done at the big-league level on August 10th.

Davis Martin is a top-250 pitcher in 2023 - 0 Stars

I guess I had a thing for Martins? Martin failed to make the club out of camp but got off to a nice start in Triple-A Charlotte, recording a 2.81 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 16 innings before going down with a right forearm strain that eventually needed Tommy John surgery in late May.

Cody Morris is a top-100 pitcher - 0 Stars

This prediction was a tip of the hat to Cleveland's track record of developing pitching prospects. The risk I outlined in my prediction was how little Morris had pitched due to injury and the pandemic in recent seasons, and that played out once again as Morris worked 41.2 innings with 31 walks between Triple-A and the big leagues. The stuff flashes well, but if he can't find the strike zone, it won't matter in the long run.

Matthew Boyd is a top-100 pitcher - 0 Stars

Boyd won five of his 15 starts and had more strikeouts than innings pitched, but 11 homers in 71 innings led to a 5.45 ERA before his season ended with an elbow injury in late June. Boyd's days a starting pitcher after his second Tommy John surgery in three seasons are all but over, but he could still return as a reliever if he attempts to resume his career late next summer. His fantasy relevancy is done unless he ends up in a closer role for a team.

Brady Singer is a top-50 pitcher - 0 Stars

Maybe he missed Cal Eldred? Nobody else did, but Singer's outcomes were a big step back toward 2021 after his stellar 2022. He walked a few more, but batted balls had a lot of eyes and he struggled to strand runners all season. Singer adjusted his repertoire to use more changeups and joined the sweeper fun while dumping his four-seamer. The sinker, which the league hit .255 off in 2022 (.244 xBA), was no longer the same pitch, as the league hit .338 (.302 xBA) off it this past season, which is problematic given it's his primary pitch. Before you go and blame the defense, understand the team had terrific infield defense this season with Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia and Michael Massey leading the charge. 

Bailey Ober is a top-80 pitcher - 5 Stars

Ober had an ADP of 273 and was the 105th pitcher on the charts at the time of this prediction. He finished the season as the 49th-best fantasy pitcher, nearly doubling his career total in innings (144.1) with eight wins, solid ratios and an excellent 20.3% K-BB%. Ober is now adding to his big workload spike here in the postseason, but at 28 years old, some of the risks should be reduced. Betting on his skillset despite depth-chart questions certainly paid off in this instance, as Ober went from not being in the rotation in the spring to doing very well as part of it for the bulk of season in his breakout campaign.

Jose Urquidy is not a top-150 pitcher - 5 Stars

This situation played out like it was written up, as Urquidy continued to struggle with home runs while getting pummeled by righties. Urquidy did indeed lose his spot in the rotation, and with his extreme left/right splits, Urquidy will have a tough time getting back into a rotation unless Houston ships him to Oakland, where his approach could somewhat work. 

Carlos Estevez finishes as a top-10 closer - 2 Stars

Estevez did get five wins and 31 saves, so that part of the prediction saved it from being 0 or 1 stars. However, his 3.90 ERA and 1.49 WHIP pushed his final ranking to the 23rd most valuable fantasy relief pitcher. That ERA/WHIP pairing screams danger for 2024 as Estevez pitches in the second year of his two-year deal with the Angels. 

Dany Jimenez leads Oakland in saves - 0 Stars

I was dead wrong on this one, as I never imagined Trevor May staying in Oakland for the entire season. May had 21 saves while Jimenez had twenty fewer, once again struggling with walks but doubling down with home-run issues as well in the 32 innings he worked between Triple-A and the big leagues. Oakland needs a new closer for 2024, but it will not be this guy.

George Kirby is a top-20 pitcher - 5 Stars

Kirby's ADP was barely inside the top 100 when this prediction was made, but I did a poor job of drafting him despite how excited I was to see this guy pitch in 2023. I may have been too publicly bullish on Kirby, because I wasn't able to get him on any one of my nine fantasy teams this year. He was every bit as good as hoped and then some, as he was even stingier with walks, was tougher to hit and won 13 games with excellent ratios. The only concern someone might have with him is the fact that he worked 190.2 innings as a 25-year-old, but he only increased his workload 22 percent from 2022 and is one of the most pitch-efficient arms in the majors. Kirby was 15th in innings pitched this season but 34th in total pitches thrown.

Brock Burke is a top-150 pitcher - 1 Star

The prediction did not materialize, but it didn't exactly flop either, as Burke did get five wins in middle relief and was a decent middle-relief streaming option in AL-Only leagues.

Overall, this was not as successful as the NL hitting recap, but nowhere near the disaster my AL hitting bold predictions were.