This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Bets for Friday, March 14
CONFERENCE PLAY is back in full swing. Yeah daddy! I mentioned last week that the board was disgusting, gross, and littered with landmines as maybe the worst slate of the entire season. This week should be a different story. Lines have come out early and the board is stocked like a trout pond with tons of options and enticing games, making it hard to pick almost. Let's get it rolling.
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UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (-250) @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+190) | Total: N/A
I could have gone a lot of different directions for the Friday night feature, but there was a reason why I went out to the islands of Hawaii for a game that technically starts at 12:35 am on Saturday morning. Love those Bows after dark!
In a crucial early season Big West tilt, two of the top three main contenders for the conference will do battle. And I have a feeling we're going to see some thrillers this weekend.
UCSB is a large favorite on the road because of the Tyler Bremner tax. Preseason, Bremner was drawing a lot of hype as the second-best pitcher in the 2025 draft class with some juice to be a top-five, maybe even top-three pick. The Gauchos ace has been off to an okay start this season with a 3.44 ERA and 18 K/3 BB ratio in 18.1 innings. But like most top teams, UCSB has had a virtual cakewalk to start the campaign. Coming off an average-at-best outing against CSUN (5.1 innings, 3 ER), they'll be facing a tough Hawaii team in a relatively difficult travel spot.
The 'Bows aren't a flashy offensive team. They don't hit for power (five homers all year), but it's basically death by a thousand cuts. As a team, they're hitting .298, but they get on base (.404 OPB%). And when they do, they cause havoc on the base paths. 36-48 in steals thus far, Hawaii implements an aggressive run early, run often approach which leaves opposing arms and defenses to making mistakes. Their 81st WRC+ (124) is good, but it's not sexy, but that's not how this team gets you.
Half of their regular starting lineup is hitting well over .300 with high OPB's. Led by Sakaino Shunsuke (.414 average/1.122 OPS), it's an offense that is very capable of getting after a star pitcher, averaging just under seven runs per game. For the Gauchos, all the trouble would come by allowing them to work their away aboard.
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For the Rainbow Warriors, it's Itsuke Takemoto taking the mound. Off to a solid start (3.22 ERA, 17 K/5 BB ratio in 22.1 IP, .253 OBA), the righty has provided some stability at the top of the rotation for his team giving them a really nice 1-2 punch. Most of the time we see the Friday night guy as the best starter in a team's rotation, but there have been a few examples over the years where a team actually designates their second-best guy on Friday and their best on Saturday. For Hawaii, Liam O'Brien as the day two starter would support that rare method.
Takemoto will see a feast or famine Gaucho offense that ranks 33rd in WRC+ (146), but doesn't have quite the same amount of juice as they do on paper. Thanks to a butter schedule, the lineup looks decent with a team average of .286, .884 OPS, and 23 homers. A few of their guys have been hot so far like Isaac Kim (.370 average/1.029 OPS), Jack Holman (.356 average/1.269 OPS), and Xavier Esquer (.353 average/1.077 OPS).
On paper the pitching matchup is in a big advantage towards UCSB, but without Bremner being in midseason form, there's an opportunity to take advantage of a big time misprice. Your paying -250 as the Bremner tax, otherwise this line would be much closer for two teams that are pretty evenly matched. At home on a Friday night getting nearly 2/1, this is a Hawaii spot all the way for me.
And I got news for you. I'm taking them again on Saturday regardless with O'Brien going. I like the Bows to take the series at home, but I can guarantee you if they win tonight you'll see the price flipped upside down for tomorrow.
Pick: Hawaii ML +190 (DK)
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