The no-hitter exists within an interesting space in MLB lore. What, exactly, is it reflective of? They are always notable, to be sure, warranting the "Breaking News" graphic on ESPN's Bottom Line and whatever sporting websites you frequent. When a no-hitter is percolating, you will find plenty of people talking about it on social media…and also people complaining that those people are jinxing it…and then other people performatively talking about the potential no-hitter to rankle the people complaining about the jinxing. Long story short, you remember why you don't really go on social media much anymore.
It's not a strikingly-rare occurrence for a no-hitter to pop up, unlike a perfect game or a 20-strikeout performance. Plus, you don't necessarily need to spin a gem to pitch a no-hitter. Remember back in 2010 when Edwin Jackson pitched a no-hitter for the Diamondbacks? He walked eight batters and hit another with a pitch. In 2011, Ervin Santana allowed a run during his no-hitter.
I was trying to think of an analogous accomplishment in another sport, because comparisons are fun. What I landed on was a 50-point game in the NBA. It's impressive, but not remarkable, and it feels like it's happening more than ever. A player does not need to be efficient or play out of their minds to achieve it. There is a key difference, though. When a 50-point game happens in the NBA, it's almost always a star who produces it. That is definitely not the case with no-hitters.
On March 27, RotoWire dropped a fantasy note citing Houston Chronicle scribe Matt Kawahara (himself citing Astros manager Joe Espada) saying that Ronel Blanco had secured a rotation spot for the 'Stros. On April 1, he pitched a no-hitter against the Blue Jays. Was this the first you had ever heard the name "Ronel Blanco?" It's understandable. Blanco debuted in MLB in 2022, his age-28 season, but with a mere 6.1 innings of relief work. Here is his unremarkable game log from 2023:
From there, we get a no-hitter in his first outing of 2024. Blanco did pitch well. He only allowed two walks and struck out seven Jays. But his accomplishment isn't necessarily a harbinger of what is to come. Here are the previous nine no-hitters:
- August 9, 2023: Philadelphia's Michael Lorenzen against Washington.
- August 1, 2023: Houston's Framber Valdez versus Cleveland.
- July 8, 2023: Detroit's trio of Matt Manning (6.2 IP), Jason Foley (1.1), and Alex Lange (1) shut down Toronto. Tough year for the Jays, who have been on the losing end of eight no-hitters, but have thrown only one no-hitter on their end.
- June 28, 2023: The Yankees' Domingo German pitched a perfect game against the Athletics, who technically qualified as an MLB team at the time.
- November 2, 2022: The Astros got a combined no-hitter from Cristian Javier (6 IP), Bryan Abreu (1), Rafael Montero (1) and Ryan Pressly (1) against the Phillies. As the November date indicates, this was in the World Series. Game 4, to be exact.
- June 25, 2022: Houston is at it again! This time, Javier (7), Hector Neris (1) and Pressly (1) joined forces against the Yankees.
- May 10, 2022: Reid Detmers of the Angels pitched a no-hitter in a breezy 12-0 win over the Rays.
- April 29, 2022: The Mets used a whopping five pitchers to secure the no-hitter. We've got Tylor Megill (5), Drew Smith (1.1), Joely Rodriguez (1) Seth Lugo (0.2), and Edwin Diaz (1). The Phillies were on the losing end.
- September 11, 2021: Corbin Burnes went eight innings, and then Josh Hader came in for the save as Milwaukee beat Cleveland.
What can we take from all this?
My main takeaway is that "no-hitter" and "great singular pitching performance" are no longer synonymous. Look at how many of those no-hitters utilized multiple pitchers. I'm not breaking new ground by noting that starting pitchers don't go as deep into games as they used to. Noting that and calling it revolutionary is akin to pointing out that gas is more expensive than it was 30 years ago. This does illustrate the degree to which managers now consider pitch counts and innings limits. Guys with no-hitters going may get yanked. Burnes is a great example of that. He's the best pitcher on this list. He won the NL Cy Young in 2021. Even so, he was pulled after 115 pitches.
The fact that Burnes is also comfortably the best pitcher on this list — only Valdez really gets close — is noteworthy. Clearly, no-hitters are not just for stars. Let's look at the career of Lorenzen, the most recent pitcher who had a no-hitter prior to Blanco:
Lorenzen flopped as a starter for the Reds as a rookie, so much so that he spent the rest of his time there as a bullpen arm. After years of mediocrity, Lorenzen got a chance to be a starter for the Angels, who received more mediocrity in return for their faith. He turned the best run of his career, which happened to come as a starter for the Tigers in 2023, into a chance to be moved to a team with World Series hopes. The righty delivered the Phillies a no-hitter…and a 5.51 ERA. Philadelphia booted him from the rotation. Lorenzen pitched a no-hitter, and he was also a bust in the same campaign.
The lesson, if you are looking for one to be imparted, is that anybody, or any team, could throw a no-hitter at any time. It seems to be as much a matter of some good breaks coming your way. The majority of them are thrown by pitchers who aren't high-level hurlers, which makes sense when you realize that's, you know, 90 percent of the pitchers out there. Facing a bad offense helps but is not a prerequisite; Blanco's opponent, the Blue Jays, had a comfortably above-average lineup last season and project to finish there again this season.
If you are thinking about fantasy baseball, be it MLB DFS or otherwise, the last 10 no-hitters mostly serve to remind us that among the thousands of games every season, sometimes odd things happen. Roy Sullivan was struck by lightning seven times. Cristian Javier started, but did not finish, two no-hitters in the same season. When it comes to fantasy, find good pitchers with favorable matchups and hope for the best. Fishing for no-hitters is a fool's game.
