This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Friday, April 21
Baseball starts off the week with eight games on the schedule Monday. One of the more appealing series features the Mets hosting the Phillies. Let's dig into the betting market for the evening and highlight three wagers to consider.
Mike Barner's season record: 17-1 (+12.57 units)
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Best MLB Bets Today
Atlanta Braves 
vs. St. Louis Cardinals 
Picks
- Braves to bat in bottom of 9th: NO (-125) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 Unit
The Braves have been disappointing at 8-13 this season. However, much of their troubles have come on the road, where they are 2-11. They are 6-2 at home. The Cardinals have similar splits, going 8-4 at home and 1-9 on the road.
The Braves have the pitching advantage for this game with Spencer Schwellenbach starting against Erick Fedde. Schwellenbach has a 0.85 WHIP and has allowed one or no runs in three of his four starts. Fedde has also allowed one or no runs in three of his four starts, but he doesn't have the same overpowering arsenal that Schwellenbach does. For his career, Fedde has just an 18.3% strikeout rate.
Taking the Braves on the moneyline comes with a lot of juice, so taking them not to bat in the bottom of the ninth inning follows a similar outlook on how this game will play out, but comes with better odds.
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Houston Astros 
vs. Toronto Blue Jays 
Picks
- Under 4.5 total runs first 5 innings (-144) at FanDuel Sportsbook for 1 Unit
Scoring has been a problem for the Astros and Blue Jays out of the gate. The Astros have the fifth-worst OPS and are tied for the sixth-fewest runs scored in baseball. The Blue Jays rank 17th in OPS and have scored the ninth-fewest runs.
Runs might continue to be difficult for both teams to come by early in this game. The Astros will start Hunter Brown, who has logged at least six innings and allowed two or fewer earned runs in all four of his starts. Starting for the Blue Jays will be Kevin Gausman, who has logged at least 5.1 innings and allowed three or fewer runs in all four of his outings. He also has just a 0.71 WHIP. Last season, Gausman had a 1.09 WHIP on the road.
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Milwaukee Brewers 
at San Francisco Giants 
Picks
- Brewers team total over 3.5 runs (-122) at FanDuel Sportsbook for 1 Unit
The Brewers enter this game having scored the fifth-most runs in baseball. Over their last five games, they scored at least five runs four times. However, this line has likely been set so low because lefty Robbie Ray will start for the Giants. The Brewers have a .731 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season, but lefties have limited them to a .632 OPS.
Ray can dominate, but he can also be wild. He has walked at least four batters in three straight starts, leaving him with a 1.55 WHIP for the season. With him walking and striking out so many batters, Ray has logged 5.1 innings or fewer in three of his four starts. If he has similar issues in this game, the Giants could be in real trouble. Ryan Walker and Tyler Rogers have pitched in both of the last two games, so neither will probably be available for this matchup. A potentially wild pitcher with a compromised bullpen behind him leaves the Brewers in a favorable position to score at least four runs.
MLB Picks Recap
- Braves vs. Cardinals: Braves to bat in bottom of 9th: NO (-125) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 Unit
- Astros vs. Blue Jays: Under 4.5 total runs first 5 innings (-144) at FanDuel Sportsbook for 1 Unit
- Brewers team total over 3.5 runs (-122) at FanDuel Sportsbook for 1 Unit
