This article is part of our DRAFT MLB series.
In the first installment of this article series, I outlined a few strategy tips on how to successfully navigate the Draft format. This week, I would like to analyze a draft that I entered for Tuesday's slate in order to show how some of these strategies look in practice. It must be said up front that I missed cashing this tournament by three points but I still think the team is a good example of how to put together a high point-scoring squad picked via a snake draft. Before we dive into the analysis, however, I want to give a brief explanation of the rules of a GPP tournament on DRAFT.
THE $5 BIG A$$ TOURNAMENT QUALIFIER
GPP tournaments on DRAFT are multiple-round, single-elimination games. Each round of the Big A$$ tournament qualifier, for example, consists of six players competing within the confines of a daily slate. The winner of that contest moves on to the next round. It's important to note here that quarterfinal, semifinal, and final round drafts take place at specific times, so be sure to thoroughly read the tournament information to learn the details. This qualifier carried a guaranteed prize pool of $4,400, with the winner getting an entry into the $250,000 main tournament in September, which carries a first prize of $40,000. These satellites run regularly on DRAFT, so anyone who is interested in trying to punch their ticket to a potentially huge payday shouldn't hesitate to jump in.
Now that the technical stuff is out of the way, I'm going to go through this draft round-by-round. I will run down my thought process for each pick and review how many points each pick accrued.
Pick 1.4 J.D. Martinez
As much as I would love to tout this as a genius bit of drafting, I must confess that this pick was made due to the fact that Martinez was (in my opinion) the best player left on the board after my first choice (Matt Carpenter) had already been taken. Martinez was playing in a good hitter's park and came into the contest sporting a .344 ISO against righties, which convinced me to pull the trigger. Going for the best available player on the board can be a nice fallback strategy if you miss your targeted player in a given round, as they will likely have a safe enough floor to make the pick worthwhile. Martinez was certainly worthwhile on this night, as he clubbed two homers and came away with 30 points, making him the most successful play on my team.
Pick 2.3 Marcell Ozuna
I suppose one could argue that I got a bit overzealous in my quest to find a hitter to play against Homer Bailey, who was entering his first game since returning from the disabled list and held a 7.12 ERA in 36.2 innings at home this season. Ozuna has had a miserable year from a statistical perspective but I felt as though other players I liked would keep for a round or two and I would be able to get a nice return from a cleanup hitter against one of the worst pitchers in baseball. A second-inning double from Ozuna had me feeling pretty good about the play. Unfortunately, however, he wouldn't get on base again, ending his night with six points.
Pick 3.4 Khris Davis
I mentioned in my introductory article the importance of targeting good run-scoring environments like Globe Life Park, and it held true Tuesday, as the Rangers and the A's combined to put up 23 runs. Keying in on players in hitter's parks is particularly useful during the summer months, as the ball tends to carry even better under the hot sun. We had to wait 10 innings but Davis finally made good on his power threat, launching a three-run shot that turned out to be the game winner. A 1-for-6 night may not look impressive in the box score but it was enough to give us 18 points for the night.
Pick 4.3 Aaron Judge
Opposing starter Yonny Chirinos has been solid for the Rays in limited time this season but the 54.6 percent(!) hard contact rate he had allowed against righties made me want to go with Judge, who came into the contest having notched a 49 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitchers. In retrospect, I would have preferred to grab a hitter in a better environment but I don't think picking Judge against a vulnerable right-hander can ever be too big of a mistake in a format where we are looking for homers. He comes away with just three points, ranking as our lowest scoring player of the night.
Pick 5.4 Jordan Zimmermann
As is customary for me when playing on DRAFT, I waited until the last round to select a pitcher. You'll remember that the idea behind this is since hitters get so many more points than pitchers for scoring plays it makes sense to grab as many high-quality position players as possible. Although it is quite possible to win a tournament with a score like Zimmermann's (5.00) the result has to be seen as underwhelming, as he started the day sporting a sparkling 2.59 ERA in five starts since returning from the disabled list in mid-June.
Aside from questioning myself a bit on the Judge pick, I was happy with how the team turned out. Even though I was unable to come up with the win, I feel good about the fact that I was able to grab two picks that produced big points.
THREE PLAYS FOR WEDNESDAY
Jose Altuve, HOU at COL, (INF) – Jon Gray's peripherals tell us that he is nowhere near deserving of his 5.44 ERA but we should still look to take advantage of the young pitcher with respect to lefty hitters, as he has allowed a .481 slugging percentage to his opposite hand so far this season. Meanwhile, Altuve owns a .392 wOBA against righty hurlers in 290 at-bats.
Khris Davis, OAK at TEX, (DH-INF) – We will look for Davis to bring home the points once again Wednesday due to the .213 ISO he has notched against lefty pitchers in 2018. Martin Perez could be a target to stack against on the late slate, as he has surrendered a .653 slugging percentage to right-handed hitters in 26.1 innings.
Tyler Skaggs, LAA vs. CWS, (P) – Skaggs struggled in his last outing against the Astros but should have a favorable matchup against the White Sox, who are a bottom-10 team in the league against southpaws according to wOBA. Skaggs has been a consistent performer for the Angels in 2018, as evidenced by the 2.68 ERA he has logged in 104 innings (18 starts).
