We're a bit more than halfway into the 2025 MLB season and playoff races are taking shape. It's also a time of year when folks wagering on player props at MLB betting sites might have noticed some patterns emerging for certain stars.
Nowadays, there are concrete ways for advanced metrics to define "good luck" against "bad luck" more deeply than the old "the ball just didn't bounce our way" cliches.
Rotowire.com used BaseballSavant.com to find the MLB hitters who have been the unluckiest to start the 2025 MLB season. Here is the top 10, with an explanation below:
Unluckiest Hitters of The 2025 MLB Season
Rank | Player | Team | Average Ranking |
1 | New York Mets | 1.3 | |
T2 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.3 | |
T2 | Los Angeles Angels | 5.3 | |
T2 | Colorado Rockies | 5.3 | |
T2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.3 | |
6 | Texas Rangers | 9.0 | |
7 | Cleveland Guardians | 9.3 | |
8 | Los Angeles Angels | 10.3 | |
9 | New York Yankees | 10.7 | |
T10 | Kansas City Royals | 12.0 | |
T10 | Toronto Blue Jays | 12.0 |
RotoWire provides this analysis plus top MLB betting promo codes for customers to use.
The three categories included to average out the rankings were:
- Expected Batting Average minus Actual Batting Average
- Expected Slugging Percentage minus Actual Slugging
- Expected Weighted On-Base Average minus Actual Weighted OBA
Stats are through June 30 and players need 150 plate appearances to be included.
Juan Soto, New York Mets
Before this season, Mets superstar Juan Soto signed the richest contract in MLB history, a deal worth $765 million over 15 years. Fantasy baseball owners are smart to snap him up even though his counting stats are not stellar yet in 2025. Soto has 20 home runs, 47 RBIs and a slash line of .258/.394/.507. He still draws a ton of walks (a league-leading 68 in 84 games) but, more to the point for this exercise, metrics show that he had not had much luck. According to the Baseball Savant website, the difference between Soto's Expected Batting Average (XBA) of .316 and his actual average is fifth widest in MLB. His expected slugging percentage (.649) is .142 points lower than his actual slugging, second in MLB, and it's also in the top 1% of all MLB players.
Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh's young outfield star, Bryan Reynolds, is almost on pace to match his production over the past four full seasons. From 2021 to 2024, he averaged 25 homers, 81 RBIs and a slash line of .276/.352/.472 for the Pirates. Through 81 games in 2025, he has 10 homers, 45 RBIs and a .240/.305/.397 triple slash. But Reynolds has an Expected Slugging Percentage (XSLG) of .524, which ranks in the top 10% in the majors. That 127-point difference between XSLAG and actual slugging number is third in MLB. His hard hit rate of 49%, if he sustains it, would be a career high, which belies his relatively low home run total so far.
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
When fans and MLB betting regulars talk about Mike Trout and bad luck, they're usually referring to his injury history. This season he missed about a month with a bone bruise on his troublesome left knee and he played 57 of the Angels' 83 games through June 30. He also has not had good fortune on the statistical front in 2025. The three-time American League Most Valuable Player is only hitting .230 but his XBA is .277; that gap of .047 is 11th in MLB, according to Baseball Savant. His XSLG is .566, which is in the top 4% of MLB, but his actual slugging average is .446 now.
Brenton Doyle, Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are enduring misery of historic proportions and centerfielder Brenton Doyle is one example of the franchise's futility in 2025. His Wins Above Replacement (WAR) through 72 games is a ghastly minus-1.9 and his triple slash numbers of .194/.246/.312 are a huge disappointment for those looking at him for fantasy daily MLB lineups. Still, advanced metrics suggest that at least a couple of his numbers should be better. His XBA of .245 is 51 points higher than his actual batting average, the seventh-biggest gap in MLB. Doyle also has a .419 XSLG, which is .107 higher than his actual slugging percentage. His walk rate, never great to begin with, is at 6.6%, which helps explain a Weighted OBA of .247 that's among the bottom 2% of MLB, though his Expected WOBA is .309 for Colorado.
Michael Conforto, Los Angeles Dodgers
Another player with a negative WAR through the first half of the season is Dodgers OF Michael Conforto, at -1.1 through 72 games. His XBA of .244 is nothing to write home about, but that's 69 points higher than his actual average of .175 and that gap is tied for the biggest in the majors. Conforto's slash line of .175/.299/.301 has been a drag on an otherwise productive lineup, as Los Angeles leads MLB with 483 runs. The outfielder's XSLG of .418 and XWOBA of .345 are numbers more in line with what the Dodgers would expect based on Conforto's 10-year MLB career. The Dodgers remain the MLB odds favorite at sportsbooks to repeat as World Series champions.
