Two-way star Shohei Ohtani has a torn UCL in his pitching arm, which means he will likely require Tommy John surgery before he can pitch again.
While the injury to the prohibitive AL MVP favorite is unfortunate, at least his bank account should continue to grow while he's on the mend. Let's take a look at Ohtani's potential earnings while recovering should he opt for Tommy John surgery.
Is Another Tommy John Surgery Worth It?
Ohtani has already had Tommy John surgery once since coming over to MLB from Japan, as he required the procedure in 2018. Nathan Eovaldi is pitching at a high level after having the procedure twice, but he's the exception rather than the rule. Still, it's worth the risk for Ohtani, as his ability to both pitch and hit at a high level is the reason Ohtani could become the league's highest-paid player this offseason.
In 2022, Ohtani finished second behind Aaron Judge in AL MVP voting, and he also finished second behind Judge in WAR (wins above replacement). Per Fangraphs, Ohtani's hitting accounted for 3.8 WAR (48th among MLB hitters) and his pitching accounted for 5.6 WAR (sixth among MLB pitchers), while Judge's hitting alone accounted for 11.5 WAR in what was a historic season at the plate. Ohtani has improved his hitting in 2023, as his 6.3 batting WAR is third-highest in the league (though his pitching WAR has dropped to 2.3). Even if you prorate his 2023 hitting production for the rest of the season to get to 8.0 WAR, splitting the difference between the last two seasons gets you about a 6.0-WAR hitter, which is good enough to flirt with the top 20, but not in the MVP discussion. Ohtani would also be a defensive liability since he has been used only as a designated hitter when he doesn't pitch, so the choice is clear: to get maximum on-field production and earning potential, Ohtani must get Tommy John surgery so he can keep pitching.
How Much Will Ohtani Make For the Rest of 2023?
Ohtani's likely to get Tommy John surgery soon, but in the meantime, he'll get paid whether he continues playing or not. With the Angels out of the playoff picture at 61-67, the smart move would be for Ohtani to get the surgery as soon as possible rather than continue pushing it back. Ohtani's $30 million salary in 2023 for a 162-game season works out to $185,185.19 per game. There are 34 games left in the Angels' season, so Ohtani will make $6,296,296.30 over the remainder of the 2023 campaign, whether or not he suits up for another game with the Angels. We're just talking MLB salary here, by the way, so Ohtani's estimated $40 million in endorsements aren't even being considered.
Ohtani's Post-2023 Earnings While Recovering
Here's where things get tricky. Ohtani will be a free agent after the season, so we have multiple variables up in the air: how much will Ohtani be paid, and how long will he be out? Pre-injury estimates had Ohtani getting as much as $60 million per year in free agency this offseason. Maybe billionaire Mets owner Steve Cohen will still be willing to pony up that much money, but if Ohtani indeed prefers to stay on the west coast, he'll likely be willing to settle for the best offer from a west coast team. Those offers likely just got smaller given the uncertainty over his pitching ability moving forward, but if Ohtani opts for surgery, that will at least show that he intends to remain a two-way player. He'll still be highly sought after, and some team could still throw $45 million per year his way in hopes that Ohtani eventually recaptures his pre-injury pitching ability to complement his prowess at the plate.
As for Ohtani's recovery timeline, he probably won't pitch in 2024. Pitchers usually take at least a year to get back from Tommy John surgery, and any team that throws a multi-year, big-money deal Shohei's way will likely have no desire to rush him back and risk re-injury. Ohtani should return as a hitter much sooner, though, if his previous recovery timeline from the same procedure is any indication. Ohtani's previous Tommy John surgery occurred on Oct. 1, 2018, and he was back in the lineup for the Angels on May 7, 2019. He has the potential to get surgery before Oct. 1 this year, but it won't be surprising if Ohtani's recovery takes a little longer on the back end with his new team taking a cautious approach, so May 7, 2024 looks like a reasonable estimate for his return.
Ohtani missed the first 34 games of the season in 2019, and a 34-game absence to begin 2024 at an estimated $45 million salary would work out to earnings of $9,444,444.44 during the back half of Ohtani's recovery period. Adding the $6,296,296.30 that Ohtani's slated to earn for the remainder of 2023, which is coincidentally also 34 games, he can be reasonably expected to make almost $16 million -- $15,740,740.70 -- in MLB salary before he steps back on the field again if Ohtani opts to shut it down right now and get Tommy John Surgery.
