Everyone wants to know how to select a successful March Madness bracket. It's something that is extremely difficult to do given all of the upsets and unforeseen circumstances that come to fruition during the tournament.
So is it purely based on luck? After all, many experts and college basketball enthusiasts still struggle after selecting their brackets despite hours of research. Nevertheless, is there a best method to approach picking the best March Madness bracket?
Early-Round Upsets are Not the End of the World
It is easy to get distracted by trying to find the best early-round upsets. They are destined to occur, but it isn't easy to decide which games they will happen in.
In the end, favorites are favorites for a reason. Selecting a few underdogs in the first round is not a bad decision by any means. But it doesn't mean you should automatically cash in the worst-seeded teams to upset the top picks every time.
It is more important to correctly select winners in the Elite Eight and beyond, and that's when you can take more of a risk on upsets. In the early rounds, rolling with teams with the best chances to win, as opposed to overthinking your prediction, is the best option.
How Many Games Do You Actually Need to Win?
Setting a target number of games to win is a good strategy. When you first look at a March Madness bracket, it can feel a bit overwhelming. Setting a specific goal for games to win can help ease the burden. According to NCAA.com, 50 victories is the number you want to aim for.
"When filling out your MBCG bracket, you have to pick winners in 63 games," the article by Wayne Staats, which was published in 2024, reads. "The last eight MBCG victors picked the correct winner in 54, 50, 54, 51, 53, 47, 53 and 49 games in their respective winning years. That's an average of 51.4 correct picks for the entire tournament. In other words, MBCG winners get more than 11 games wrong each year, on average."
Staats makes the point that winning around 50 games will typically put you in contention for the best bracket. I agree with the strategy. Again, randomly picking games and hoping for the best can lead to stress. If you are able to approach it with a strategy, though, you will feel much more confident. 50 of your picks should be the best choices you fully believe in. The other selections can be risks, and you can take your chances on potential upsets.
The No. 8-seed Phenomenon
No. 8 seeds are always an interesting pick. They often have the opportunity to take care of business against the No. 9 seed. The No. 8 seeds hold a 28-24 record against the No. 9 seeds since 2010, according to Joe Boozell of NCAA.com.
The 8-seed can quickly build momentum which leads to them upsetting some of the better teams in the bracket. The 8-seed will need to upset top teams in order to reach the Elite Eight. If they make it to the Elite Eight, though, then there is reason to believe they can make a serious run. This does not mean the No. 8 seeds are guaranteed to win. It does, however, give you something to think about when making your upset selections.
The Champion
NCAA reporter Michella Chester shared a sometimes forgotten but extremely crucial tip in a video posted by the March Madness YouTube account in 2021. "To win a major bracket game, and probably your group, you will have to pick the champ," Chester said. "Our past five winners picked up huge point totals for predicting Finals like Virginia-Texas Tech in 2019 or North Carolina-Gonzaga in 2017."
Is there a Strategy for Picking Sleepers?
Should you trust your gut when it comes to sleepers? I'm actually not always opposed to this idea, especially if you are someone who follows college basketball on a consistent basis. Of course, implementing some kind of strategy and reasoning behind your picks is smart, however.
NCAA reporter Autumn Johnson shared an attention-catching strategy in a March Madness YouTube Video from 2021 as well. "You can't go wrong with a sleeper that is an above-average three-point shooting team," Johnson said. "14 of the 20 teams examined made three-pointers at an above-average rate compared to the national average in their respective season. Notably UConn in 2014, Michigan State in 2015 and Loyola-Chicago in 2018. These teams had a high-scoring, highly-efficient, high-usage primary option on offense."
It's easy to get lost in various sleeper strategies. You can look at in-depth data and statistics. But this tip is a great one because it is simple and to the point, yet can be highly effective. Much like the modern NBA, three-point shooting is pivotal at the college level. So if you are trying to decide on a specific sleeper, be sure to check their three-point shooting statistics. It is pivotal to note that teams who live and die by the three-point shot are risky. If they go cold for just one game, that could completely derail your bracket. So finding an above-average three-point team that offers balance on offense is probably your best bet.
Final Advice and a Bonus Tip
Trust the data, but don't ignore your gut. Sometimes you need to make a decision that makes sense to you. However, utilizing your data and research, and implementing trusted advice such as what we provided above, can help you reach new heights in your March Madness bracket this year. So what is our final bonus tip?
What is one primary difference between NBA and NCAAB coverage? In the NBA, specific star players are always brought into the conversation. For example, some NBA analysts are cautious about selecting the Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals this season because of Jayson Tatum's clutch-time struggles.
So why would we not approach college basketball in a similar manner? Players' clutch-time stats are worth taking into consideration. It's important to know which players are capable of stepping up when it matters.
