This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The Australian Open will wrap up Sunday with the men's singles final from the hard courts of Melbourne Park. This clash between the top two seeds features a player looking to extend his recent hard-court Grand Slam dominance facing an opponent who is looking to shed the label of best player without a Grand Slam title.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams are best of five sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Sunday's men's championship match.
Australian Open Odds: Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev
Jannik Sinner (-275) vs. Alexander Zverev (+215)
Just a year ago, Sinner and Zverev were in the same boat as players who were frequently knocking on the door at majors but had yet to break through for a title. The 23-year-old Italian then proceeded to win the 2024 Australian Open and U.S. Open while seizing the No. 1 ranking. Sinner now boasts a 20-match hard-court winning streak at Grand Slams and has hardly been troubled on his path to the final here, dropping only two sets. Zverev has also lost only two sets en route to the final, though he looked to be in for a battle in the semifinals before Novak Djokovic shockingly retired following an 81-minute first set that Zverev won 7-6 (5). The 27-year-old German's consistency throughout the 2024 season -- including two Masters 1000 titles to bring his career total to seven -- helped him clinch the No. 2 ranking. He's in his third career Grand Slam final just like Sinner, but Zverev's 0-2 after letting leads slip away in five-set losses to Dominic Thiem at the 2020 U.S. Open and Carlos Alcaraz at the 2024 French Open.
Both players have excellent baseline games and don't necessarily deviate much from their standard game plans. Zverev has a tendency to get much more passive, especially in the return game, but the 6-foot-6 German has the superior serve which can help close the gap. The mental edge clearly goes to Sinner given the confidence his recent Grand Slam success has instilled in the world No. 1 juxtaposed with Zverev's tendency to come up short on the sport's biggest stage. The formula for Zverev is pretty simple: serve well and win key points. He was halfway there against Djokovic with an excellent serving performance, but Zverev going 0-for-5 on break points against a diminished Djokovic doesn't bode well for his ability to convert against prime Sinner.
On the bright side for Zverev, he has had head-to-head success against Sinner. Zverev leads 4-2 overall and 3-1 on hard courts, including wins at the 2021 and 2023 U.S. Opens. Sinner won their only 2024 encounter, but that one was as close as it gets, with Sinner triumphing 7-6 (9), 5-7, 7-6 (4) in Cincinnati. At the end of the day, Zverev has the game to hang with Sinner and could push this match down to the wire, but even against an opponent he has proven capable of beating at Grand Slams, the belief may not be there for the underdog in the biggest moments. History suggests Sinner will trust his game and play to win, while Zverev will play not to lose. In matches between elite players with this much shot-making prowess, the former approach almost always comes out on top.
