This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The third round of the U.S. Open begins Friday from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City. There will be plenty of Americans in action, including a few favorites in good position to keep advancing and a rematch of a quarterfinal from last year's U.S. Open. A pair of top-10 seeds on the men's side could face tough tests against opponents who have racked up numerous wins over big names in 2024.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the U.S. Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
U.S. Open Picks: Upset Alert
Jiri Lehecka (+260) vs. Andrey Rublev
Lehecka will need to raise his level compared to the first couple rounds, but he's playing with house money now after coming back from 7-6, 6-0, 3-0 down in his previous match to beat American Mitchell Krueger in five sets. Rublev also went five sets in his second-round match against Arthur Rinderknech. When he's rolling, Lehecka certainly has the tools to beat Rublev, as the 22-year-old Czech showed by doing just that on the hard courts of Indian Wells this year. That 6-4, 6-4 win over Rublev is one of Lehecka's four top-15 wins on hard courts this year. Lehecka's capable of matching or surpassing Rublev's effectiveness with the serve, Rublev has a marginally better forehand, but Lehecka has a massive edge on the backhand, which gives him more options to step in and take control of baseline rallies between two players that are much more effective playing on the front foot rather than defending.
Tallon Griekspoor (+425) vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Dimitrov has had no shortage of upset losses at the U.S. Open over the years, as he has managed to surpass the Round of 16 only once (2019 semifinals) and has a relatively pedestrian 19-13 career record at this event. The ninth-ranked Bulgarian came into this tournament with just a 1-3 record since the Wimbledon match in which he tore his abductor, and the 40th-ranked Griekspoor will be Dimitrov's first real test after Dimitrov faced two players ranked outside the top 60. Griekspoor has raised his game against top opponents this year, notching top-15 wins over Hubert Hurkacz, Holger Rune and Stefanos Tsitsipas in addition to coming close against Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev, pushing the former to a deciding set twice and having a double-break fifth-set lead against the latter before falling in a match-deciding tiebreak at the French Open. Both Dimitrov and Griekspoor have solid all-court games with plenty of arrows in their quivers, so shot selection will be a pivotal factor in their first career encounter.
Honorable Mention
Juncheng Shang (+200) vs. Casper Ruud
U.S. Open Odds: Lock It In
Paula Badosa (-380) vs. Elena Gabriela Ruse
Badosa's one of the hottest players on the WTA Tour, with a 12-2 record during the summer hard-court swing, including a 500-level title at the Citi Open and a WTA 1000 semifinal in Cincinnati. The talented Spaniard should keep rolling against the 122nd-ranked Ruse, who is in her first career Grand Slam third round. Ruse is coming off an upset win over Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejcikova, but Krejcikova has been prone to early upsets all year, winning multiple matches in only four of 12 events.
Madison Keys (-240) vs. Elise Mertens
Keys finally seems to be fully recovered from the leg issue that ended her Wimbledon run, as the 2017 U.S. Open finalist has strung together a pair of convincing victories to reach the third round. The 14th-ranked American has been the decidedly better player between these two when healthy this year, with a 22-9 record compared to a 23-20 mark for Mertens. The 35th-ranked Mertens is a high-floor, low-ceiling player who generally beats opponents she should beat but has trouble upsetting top players, which is why she has reached at least the third round in 23 of 27 Grand Slam appearances since the start of 2018 but has only been to the quarterfinals or better three times. Keys has a significant edge in firepower and will be able to dictate play off the ground, as she has in their previous meetings to take a 3-1 career head-to-head edge over Mertens.
Honorable Mention
Coco Gauff (-250) vs. Elina Svitolina
U.S. Open Predictions: Value Bets
Brandon Nakashima (-165) vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Nakashima built momentum during the summer hard-court swing with top-15 wins over American compatriots Tommy Paul and Taylor Fritz, and he has carried that momentum over to the U.S. Open, backing up his straight-sets first-round win over No. 15 seed Holger Rune with a straight-sets victory over Arthur Cazaux in Round 2. The 23-year-old American is outplaying his No. 50 ranking and should surpass his previous career high of No. 43 shortly. Musetti had an outstanding grass-court season this year and also has some impressive clay-court results under his belt, but hard court has been by far the worst surface for the 18th-ranked Italian. Musetti's just 10-10 on hard courts this year and 50-58 in his career. He had to save two match points against the 54th-ranked Miomir Kecmanovic in the second round.
Frances Tiafoe (+120) vs. Ben Shelton
This clash between fun-to-watch Americans is just about a toss-up, so Tiafoe's the better value as a slight underdog. Tiafoe reached the semifinals here in 2022, while Shelton got there in 2023, beating Tiafoe in four sets in the quarterfinals. Shelton improved to 2-0 in their head-to-head by beating Tiafoe in the Houston final on clay this year, but Tiafoe has the edge in form entering this rematch. After a slow start to 2024, Tiafoe has surged during the summer hard-court swing, notching four top-20 wins and reaching his first career Masters 1000 final in Cincinnati. Shelton's 0-7 against top-20 opponents in 2024 despite being ranked 13th himself, and Tiafoe has reentered that range by rising back up to 20th. This match will likely come down to a few key return points since both players have big serves, and Tiafoe should have a decided edge in confidence in those big moments given both players' recent results.
Honorable Mention
Donna Vekic (-125) vs. Peyton Stearns
