This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The quarterfinals of the Australian Open begin Tuesday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park, with the action starting while it's still Monday night in the United States. A pair of Americans will each try to reach the Australian Open semifinals for the second time, but the main event is the latest iteration of arguably the sport's most highly anticipated current rivalry.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Picks: Upset Alert
Paula Badosa (+270) vs. Coco Gauff
Of the four underdogs in action today, Badosa has the best chance of pulling the upset. The Spaniard has found success against Gauff previously, as they have split six meetings. Gauff has won the last two, but she had to come back from a set down both times. The American has been in a great rhythm with a 22-2 record in her last 24 matches, but Gauff prefers courts a little slower than how the hard courts at the Australian Open play. Each player has dropped only one set en route to the quarterfinals, but Badosa's path has included a top-20 win over 2024 Australian Open quarterfinalist Marta Kostyuk, while Gauff's highest-ranked opponent was No. 29 Leylah Fernandez, so the 12th-ranked Badosa is a step up in difficulty for the world No. 3.
Australian Open Odds: Lock It In
Alexander Zverev (-300) vs. Tommy Paul
Zverev's superior serve will likely be the difference in this match, as these two are otherwise close to evenly matched from the baseline, with both players boasting rock-solid backhands and excellent court coverage. Paul actually leads their head-to-head 2-0, but they haven't played since 2022, and Zverev has a far more extensive track record of success at the biggest tournaments. The second-ranked German has an 8-5 career record in Grand Slam quarterfinals, while Paul's just 1-1 in such matches. The American's a great returner, but Zverev has dropped serve only four times all tournament, and Paul will have to work much harder to hold.
Honorable Mention
Aryna Sabalenka (-1100) vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Australian Open Predictions: Value Bets
Carlos Alcaraz (-215) vs. Novak Djokovic
This highly anticipated showdown marks the eighth installment of this inter-generational rivalry. Djokovic holds a 4-3 edge overall and a 2-0 advantage on hard courts, but Alcaraz is rightfully viewed as the favorite in this match after winning their last two Grand Slam encounters, both in Wimbledon finals. An extremely motivated Djokovic got the better of Alcaraz in last year's Olympic gold medal match on clay, but that is the only tournament the 37-year-old Serb won all of last year, as Djokovic seems to have lost half a step. Conversely, Alcaraz's best tennis may still be yet to come at age 21, and much like winning the Olympics was Djokovic's No. 1 goal in 2024, Alcaraz has said that capturing the Australian Open crown and completing the career Grand Slam is the Spaniard's top priority for 2025. Neither player has faced an overly difficult path to the quarterfinals, as Alcaraz's fourth-round win over 18th-ranked Jack Draper is the most impressive victory for either player, while Djokovic has yet to face a player ranked better than 25th. Djokovic's best chance is to grind Alcaraz down with physical rallies, but their 16-year age gap suggests the Spaniard's fitness reserves will be much tougher to deplete. Otherwise, it would likely take an off night from the favorite for Djokovic to reach a 12th career Australian Open semifinal.
