This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics begins Saturday, July 27 from the same clay-court venue that hosted the French Open two months ago. The path to a gold medal is far less daunting than the road to a Grand Slam title, as the men's and women's singles draw are both 64 players instead of 128, akin to most Masters tournaments rather than Grand Slams. The average player quality is also lower than you see at a typical Masters or Grand Slam event due to the limitations on how many competitors from each country can participate.
Unlike many Olympic athletes, tennis players already go head-to-head against the best in the world at their sport regularly, so this is just another tournament to many of them as opposed to their only chance at international recognition. Nonetheless, an Olympic gold medal can still serve as a career-defining moment, as Nicolas Massu (2004) and Monica Puig (2016) can attest. Top men's seed Novak Djokovic would love to fill just about the only remaining hole on his GOAT-level resume with an Olympic gold medal, but No. 2 seed Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite on the men's side after pulling off the French Open-Wimbledon double. Overwhelming women's favorite Iga Swiatek will look to continue her clay-court dominance, while American medal hopes are bolstered by having two top-five seeds in the bottom half of the draw, including second-seeded American women's flag bearer Coco Gauff.
Before we get to the Olympic favorites, contenders and sleepers, let's acknowledge some notable injuries and absences. World No. 1 Jannik Sinner (tonsillitis) was a late scratch from the men's draw. Holger Rune (wrist), Hubert Hurkacz (leg), Grigor Dimitrov (leg), Jiri Lehecka (back) are injured, while Andrey Rublev and Ben Shelton won't be participating in the event. Big-name women's players Aryna Sabalenka, Marketa Vondrousova and Ons Jabeur have opted to withdraw rather than put their bodies through the stress of adapting back to clay courts following the grass-court season after having dealt with injuries in 2024. Madison Keys (leg), Victoria Azarenka (shoulder) and Anna Kalinskaya (wrist) are banged up, while Daria Kasatkina and Liudmila Samsonova also won't participate, so eight of the top 20 players in the WTA rankings will be absent from this event.
After each player's name below, you will see their gold medal odds. Men's odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook, while women's odds odds are from BetMGM, both updated as of Thursday afternoon. The odds can vary substantially between sportsbooks, especially for long shots, so you are encouraged to shop around for the best lines if you have access to alternative betting platforms, such as FanDuel Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for various sportsbooks, including DraftKings Sportsbook.
Paris Olympics Picks: Men's Tournament
The Favorite
Carlos Alcaraz (-125) - Alcaraz is a slight favorite against the field with Sinner removed from the equation. The 21-year-old Spaniard won his first French Open title at this venue less than two months ago, then added his fourth Grand Slam title at Wimbledon with a convincing straight-sets win over Djokovic in the final. The top men are more vulnerable in the best-of-three format here compared to best-of-five at Grand Slams, as it's easier to win two sets against Alcaraz than three, but it's tough to see anyone beating Alcaraz here unless he contributes to it by beating himself. The rest of the field will be hoping Alcaraz's attention to singles is diminished by his focus on playing men's doubles with Rafael Nadal, but that's probably wishful thinking. Most of the seeds in Alcaraz's half of the draw prefer surfaces other than clay, with the exception of potential Round of 16 opponent Alejandro Tabilo and possible semifinal foe Casper Ruud, though it's worth noting that possible second-round opponent Cameron Norrie has a clay-court win over Alcaraz.
In the Mix
Novak Djokovic (+300) - If you asked Djokovic before the season which tournament he wants to win the most in 2024, this would almost certainly be the answer. Adding to his record total of 24 Grand Slam titles would be nice, but Djokovic has a deep desire to deliver a gold medal for Serbia, and he was devastated when Alexander Zverev beat him in the Tokyo Olympics semifinals in 2021. Djokovic has an unenviable draw, as he's on a second-round collision course with Nadal, followed by chalk matchups against the surging Arthur Fils, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Zverev and Alcaraz. While Djokovic's surgically repaired knee held up without issue as he reached the final at Wimbledon, his movement will be tested more on the slower clay. The Wimbledon final was the first final he reached all year, so Djokovic has lost a step at age 37. A highly motivated Djokovic has what it takes to defy the odds, but his physical capabilities are in greater question than his mental fortitude at this point.
Alexander Zverev (+600) - The reigning Olympic gold medalist will look to join Andy Murray (2012 and 2016) in going back-to-back. While Murray has announced he's retiring after this tournament and is playing only doubles, Zverev is in his singles prime, as he reached his second career Grand Slam final at this year's French Open. A knee injury hampered him at Wimbledon, but Zverev showed that he's healthy by subsequently reaching the final in Hamburg this month. Zverev's best results have come in best-of-three set tennis, as he has six Masters 1000 titles (four on clay) to go with his Olympic gold medal. The third-seeded German would be a comfortable favorite in every match prior to a possible semifinal rematch against Djokovic; his likeliest quarterfinal opponents are either No. 7 seed Taylor Fritz or No. 11 seed Lorenzo Musetti.
Rafael Nadal (+1200) - Nadal is finally getting some matches under his belt and starting to look comfortable. He's nowhere near the form he showed en route to any of his 14 French Open titles at this venue, but Nadal played well enough to reach an ATP 250 final in Bastad before a dud against Nuno Borges in the championship match. With a better draw, the 38-year-old clay-court GOAT would have been a legitimate medal contender here. As things stand, it's tough to see Nadal stringing together enough good performances without a letdown, but he absolutely has enough left in the tank to give Djokovic a run for his money in what could be the final meeting of their ATP careers. If Nadal beats Djokovic in the second round, their career head-to-head would be tied 30-30. If he loses, it may end up being the last match of Nadal's illustrious career.
Casper Ruud (+1400) - Ruud looks like the best value in the men's singles draw. The No. 6 seed would be a clear favorite over No. 4 seed Daniil Medvedev if they face off in the quarterfinals, as Medvedev comparatively struggles on clay while Ruud has posted his best results on this surface. Ruud reached the French Open final in 2022 and 2023, then made the semifinals this year, and 11 of his 12 career ATP titles have come on clay. He's 0-4 against likely semifinal opponent Alcaraz, but Ruud's clay-court ability at this moment is on par with that of Djokovic and Zverev and likely above Nadal's.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (+2000) - Tsitsipas is an excellent clay-court player, having won the Monte Carlo Masters for the third time earlier this year and reached the French Open final in 2021. Tsitsipas was eliminated in the quarterfinals of the French Open this year by Alcaraz, against whom Tsitsipas is 0-6. Seeded eighth here, Tsitsipas can't face Alcaraz before the gold medal match, but his chalk quarterfinal opponent is Djokovic, and Tsitsipas' 2-11 head-to-head against Djokovic isn't much better.
Sleepers
Arthur Fils (+5000) - Fils is seeded 14th in this depleted field, and the 20th-ranked, 20-year-old Frenchman is riding high on the heels of his ATP 500-level clay-court title in Hamburg. He notched three top-20 wins in that event, including a victory over Zverev in the championship match. Fils' chalk opponent in the Round of 16 is Djokovic. Should Fils get through that, he would have the momentum and belief necessary to secure a medal for the host country.
Lorenzo Musetti (+8000) - Fresh off a career-best Grand Slam performance at Wimbledon, where he reached the semifinals, Musetti will bring plenty of momentum into the Olympics, which will be played on his favorite clay-court surface. The No. 11 seed is Italy's best hope for a medal on the men's side with Sinner out of the draw. Musetti has a tough first-round match against local crowd favorite Gael Monfils, but the Italian would be a clear favorite on clay in a potential Round of 16 clash against Fritz, whom Musetti upset on grass in the Wimbledon quarterfinals. He would then potentially face Zverev in the quarterfinals with a berth in the medal rounds on the line.
Alejandro Tabilo (+15000) - Tabilo will try to help rediscover the magic Chile had in the Olympics 20 years ago, when Nicolas Massu and Fernando Gonzalez took home the gold and bronze, respectively, in singles while teaming up to win the gold medal in men's doubles. Over the last three months, Tabilo has won two titles (one on clay, one on grass) and defeated Djokovic en route to the semifinals at the Masters 1000 in Rome on clay. Seeded 15th here, Tabilo's on a collision course with Alcaraz in the Round of 16, which would be an entertaining, drop shot-filled affair.
Sasha's Olympic Medal Picks (Men)
Gold: Carlos Alcaraz
Silver: Alexander Zverev
Bronze: Casper Ruud
Paris Olympics Picks: Women's Tournament
The Favorite
Iga Swiatek (-175) - Swiatek improved to 59-4 on clay since the start of 2022 with her title at the French Open. That was followed up by a disappointing third-round exit at Wimbledon, but Swiatek is a different animal on clay, so that grass-court loss shouldn't reflect poorly on the world No. 1's chances of taking home the gold for Poland here. Hurkacz pulling out of this event will deny Swiatek what would have been a realistic chance at grabbing a second gold in mixed doubles, but she's rightfully viewed as the favorite against the field in singles, especially without Sabalenka here to bolster the field's chances. Her path to the title is actually a bit tricky, though. Possible Round of 16 opponent Linda Noskova upset Swiatek at the Australian Open, while potential quarterfinal foes Danielle Collins and Jelena Ostapenko have both given her trouble before, with Ostapenko holding a 4-0 head-to-head edge over Swiatek. Potential semifinal opponent Elena Rybakina has the only clay-court win over Swiatek this year, so getting to the gold medal match may prove more challenging than winning the final for the favorite.
In the Mix
Coco Gauff (+650) - Gauff is the No. 2 seed and the clear favorite to reach the gold medal match out of the bottom half of the draw. The American women's flag bearer would be the gold medal favorite if someone else can take out Swiatek, but doing so herself has proven to be a nearly impossible task for Gauff. Gauff is 1-11 against Swiatek in her career, with all 11 losses coming in striaght sets. Both of their 2024 encounters have been straight-sets Swiatek victories on clay. Maria Sakkari or Marta Kostyuk could give Gauff trouble in the quarterfinals, while French Open and Wimbledon finalist Jasmine Paolini is her chalk semifinal opponent.
Elena Rybakina (+900) - Rybakina has had a fantastic 2024 on all surfaces, with a 40-8 overall record. She'll be looking to bounce back from the disappointment of losing in the Wimbledon semifinals to eventual champion Barbora Krejcikova as the clear title favorite. The No. 3 seed has some of the toughest unseeded floaters in her section, as she could face Naomi Osaka in the second round and Karolina Muchova in the third round. Rybakina's 4-2 against Swiatek in her career and beat her on clay this year, so she has the best chance of taking out the gold medal favorite should they clash in the semifinals, though Swiatek would still be favored in that matchup despite Rybakina's previous success.
Jasmine Paolini (+1800) - Paolini's a steal at these odds considering she just reached the final of both the French Open and Wimbledon. Her court coverage coupled with the ability to get on offense when presented with a short ball makes Paolini an excellent clay-court player, and her confidence level on this surface is higher than anybody in the draw save for Swiatek, who blew out Paolini in the French Open final here less than two months ago. Another close-but-no-cigar performance could be in the cards for the No. 4 seed, though Paolini has an early test on her path, with a possible French Open semifinal rematch against Mirra Andreeva in the second round.
Mirra Andreeva (+1800) - Speaking of Andreeva, the teenage sensation has a chance to make some serious noise here if she can avenge the French Open loss to Paolini. Clay is easily Andreeva's best surface at this stage of the 17-year-old's career, and she knocked off Sabalenka at Roland Garros before running out of gas against Paolini. Andreeva's creativity and shotmaking are already elite, and she can absorb and redirect power well on clay. The winner of the Paolini-Andreeva match would be in strong position to make the semis, as fifth-seeded American Jessica Pegula has had a down year plagued by injuries and ninth-seeded Krejcikova will have a hard time covering up her movement deficiencies on clay like she did on grass at Wimbledon, so those players are eminently beatable in a potential quarterfinal match.
Naomi Osaka (+2200) - These odds would be appropriate if this was a hard-court tournament, but it's hard to see Osaka making a deep run on clay, especially since she could face Rybakina in the second round. Osaka's best match of 2024 came on clay, as she had match point against Swiatek in the second round of the French Open, but Osaka's offensive-minded style generally works better on faster surfaces, and she hasn't been past the third round of the French Open in her career.
Sleepers
Jelena Ostapenko (+2900) - Almost all of Ostapenko's matches are played on her terms, as the big hitter tends to take control of rallies from the baseline, while playing on clay actually helps neutralize some of her weakness on serve. The 2017 French Open champion has been to the quarterfinals or better at all four Grand Slams in her career, and she won't be lacking belief if she faces Swiatek in the quarterfinals given Ostapenko's career 4-0 edge against Swiatek. If she can beat Swiatek on clay at this stage, Ostapenko could ride that momentum to the gold medal in a depleted field.
Danielle Collins (+3300) - Collins' swan song has been impressive, though the American, who is retiring at the end of 2024, will rue her underwhelming Round of 16 performance at Wimbledon against eventual champion Krejcikova. Collins won the WTA 1000 event in Miami in March and followed it up with a clay-court title in Charleston, but she'll be looking for a better performance at this venue than she put forth at the French Open, where she was upset in the second round. Seeded eighth, Collins could face Ostapenko in the Round of 16 and Swiatek in the quarterfinals, so she has a tough path to the medal rounds, but this is good value considering she has routinely been listed among the secondary favorites at big tournaments since her title in Miami.
Karolina Muchova (+8000) - Muchova's 2024 season has been like the WTA parallel of Nadal's. A wrist injury sidelined her until late-June and Muchova failed to build much momentum upon returning but finally got some wins under her belt at a small clay-court tournament recently, making the final in Palermo. She was a top-10 player prior to the injury and reached the final of the French Open last year, so Muchova's capable of making a deep run if she can find her A-game. She'll face No. 16 seed Leylah Fernandez in the first round and could match up with Rybakina in the Round of 16.
Sasha's Olympic Medal Picks (Women)
Gold: Iga Swiatek
Silver: Coco Gauff
Bronze: Jasmine Paolini
